Season 2, Episode 41 | 2026-05-18

EP41 | The Tanmay Edge

Saturday Donald Trump told Iran to get moving or there will be nothing left. Brent crude climbed 4 dollars over the weekend to 113. Bitcoin dropped 1300 dollars to 78030. The market we left on Friday is not the market we open today.

Cold Open | The Market Changed Over The Weekend

Saturday morning Donald Trump posted that Iran needs to, in his words, get moving, or there won't be anything left. Brent crude climbed 4 dollars over the weekend. Bitcoin dropped 1300 dollars. The rupee held at 95.96 only because Indian markets were shut. So the market we left on Friday is not the market we open today. This is The Tanmay Edge.

Hook | What Pro Did On Friday

On Friday something rare happened on the option chain. The biggest desk in the room, the one I track as Pro, bought 117484 call contracts. Same desk, same day, also bought 113445 put contracts. 230000 fresh contracts in one session. On both sides. When a desk pays money for upside and downside at the same time, it is not predicting which way the market goes. It is paying to be in the room when the market moves. Either way. Pro was telling us on Friday evening that this week is not going to sit quietly. Today is the day they paid for.

Tension | The Weekend Rollover

Then the weekend happened. Saturday Trump rejected another Iran ceasefire round. By Sunday afternoon Brent crude touched 113 dollars a barrel. That is 4 dollars above where we closed Friday. WTI sits at 107. Brent at 113 means Indian oil companies pay more for every barrel they import. The rupee weakens because India sends more dollars out to pay for that oil. The rupee already touched 96 against the dollar on Friday for the first time on record. Across the Pacific, Wall Street had a bad Friday too. The S and P 500 fell 1.24 percent in one session. The Nasdaq fell 1.54. Both indexes were at al…

Climax | The Level That Decides The Day

Here is the question that decides today's trade. The market opens at 23561. About 60 points above 23500. At the 23500 strike, traders have bought 7.4 million put contracts for this week's expiry. That is the biggest single position on the entire chain. Translation. A lot of people have paid a lot of money to be protected if the market falls to 23500. If the market goes there today, the sellers of those puts have to defend the level. Sometimes that defence works. Sometimes it breaks. That is question number one. Does 23500 hold in the first hour, or does it crack. Now tomorrow. Tuesday is Nifty…

Resolution | The Trade Plan In Three Steps

Plan for today. Three steps in order. Plain language. Step one. Do not chase the opening dip. The market opens 80 points red. Let it test 23500. If 23500 holds in the first 30 minutes, a bounce will come back toward 23700. That is the magnet of the chain. Step two. Sell the bounce when it gets to 23650 or 23700. Do not buy into strength. The chain wants 23700 by tomorrow afternoon but Pro has paid for movement on the way there. Sell the rally and wait for the second leg down. Step three. Wait for a base to form. It will print somewhere between 23400 and 23550 depending on whether 23500 cracked…

What Is Working | What Is Not

Look where the money is hiding. Pharma went up 0.34 on Friday despite the broad sell off. Healthcare went up 0.25. FMCG up 0.54. Media up 1.98. Defensive sectors. Companies that earn even when the macro stays ugly. Look where the money is leaving. PSU Bank down 1.80 on RBI broker rules plus higher bond yields. Real estate down 1.79. Metal down 1.93 because China sentiment turned negative over the weekend. Oil companies down 1.67 because higher Brent compresses their refining margin if they cannot pass the cost to the pump. Stay with the defensives this week. Stay away from rate sensitive names…

FII DII Turn

One last data point and then we wrap. On Friday foreign investors bought 1329 crore of Indian shares in cash. After 5 sessions of selling that was the first positive print. Domestic mutual funds sold 1959 crore in the same session. The domestic side took some profit while foreigners covered short positions. Year to date the domestic mutual fund flow has overtaken the foreign investor outflow for the first time this year. That is the structural backstop holding the market up while Brent and the rupee fight on the surface.

Tag | Help The Chain Settle

RupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. Today is the day Pro paid for on Friday. Do not chase the open. Sell the bounce. Wait for the base. Go long for the move back to 23700. Tomorrow is expiry. The chain wants to settle at 23700. Help it. This was The Tanmay Edge. New episode every trading day at 8.30 AM IST. Streaming free on rupeecase dot com. Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube. Like, subscribe, share. Back tomorrow with the expiry read.

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. Saturday morning, Donald Trump posted that Iran needs to, in his own words, get moving or there won't be anything left. Brent crude climbed $4 over the weekend. Bitcoin dropped $1,300. The rupee held just below that 96 mark only because Indian markets were shut. So the markets we left on Friday is not the same market we are going to see today's opening at. This is the Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 41. Let's go. On Friday, something rare happened on the option chain. The biggest desk in the room, the one I track as pro, bought 1,17,000 call contracts. Same desk, same day, also bought 1,13,000 put contracts. 2,30,000 fresh contracts added in one session, both on the long side. When a desk pays more money for upside and downside, at the same time, it is not predicting which way the market goes. It is paying to be in the room when the market moves either way. Pro was telling us on Friday evening that the week is not going to be silent. Today is the day they get paid for. Then the weekend happened. Saturday, Trump rejected another Iran ceasefire round. By Sunday afternoon, Brent had touched almost $113 a barrel. That is $4 above we closed on Friday. WTI sits at around $107 right now. Brent at 113 means that Indian companies are going to pay more for every barrel they import. The rupee weakens because India spends more dollars out to pay for that oil. The rupee already has touched 96 against the dollar on Friday for the first time in record. Across the Pacific, Wall Street had a bad Friday too. The S&P fell by 1.24% in one session. The Nasdaq fell by 1.54%. Both indices at all-time highs on Thursday evening. The Trump-Xi summit produced no deal. Tech stocks bled on Friday's close. Over the weekend, Bitcoin also slid $1,300 to $78,000. Ethereum cracked to $2,177, the 10-month low that we are seeing. The picture is unchanged in one sentence. Risk is leaking out of every asset that ran up in April. This morning, GIFT Nifty trades at 23,5…

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