Season 2, Episode 45 | 2026-05-22

Brent Cracked Again. Buy The Dip Continues. Long Gamma

Yesterday I said buy the dip at 75500 on Sensex. The dip went to 74897. That is 600 points deeper than I said. The level broke. By close Sensex was at 75193 and Nifty at 23654.

Cold Open | The 75500 Miss And The Honest Grade

So I am sitting here at 8 in the morning looking at my screen and I am going to be honest with you. Yesterday I told you to buy the dip at 75500 on Sensex. The dip went to 74897. That is 600 points deeper than I said. The level broke. By close Sensex was at 75193. If you bought 75500 you are sitting on a 300 point loss this morning. I owe you that honesty before we go anywhere else. This is The Tanmay Edge. Episode 45. Season 2.

Segment 1 | The Rupee Strengthened On A Brent Bounce And That Is The Tell

Here is the part nobody is talking about. While Sensex was breaking 75500 yesterday afternoon the rupee was strengthening. USDINR closed 96.19. That is 63 paise stronger than yesterday morning at 96.82. On a day Brent went back up to 107. That should not happen. If oil rebounds the rupee should weaken. The rupee strengthened anyway. Which means the bid in the rupee is not coming from oil mechanics. It is coming from something else.

Segment 2 | Brent Cracked Another 3.5 Percent Overnight

And then I opened my laptop this morning. Brent crude is at 104.07. Last night at 9 PM it was at 107.83. In 11 hours overnight Brent has dropped another 3.5 percent. WTI is at 97.36. Back below 100. After yesterday's bounce I thought the crack from Wednesday was done. It is not done. The macro story is doubling down while we sleep. Asia is ripping again. Nikkei up 2.25. Taiwan up 1.61. Hang Seng up 0.92. KOSPI added 0.32 on top of yesterday's 6.80 rip. Four out of four green. US futures green too. Dow up 139. S and P up 12. Nasdaq up 22. GIFT Nifty at 8 AM is 23668. That is 14 points above Nif…

Segment 3 | What The Pro Desk Actually Did Yesterday

Now I want to walk you through what the professional desk did yesterday because if you read it as bearish you are going to misread today. Wednesday Pro flipped from short calls to long calls. 155684 contracts in one session. The biggest single session flip of the season. The bet was a move is coming. The move came. Sensex ran 949 points from open to low yesterday. Biggest intraday range of the May series. The bet got paid on movement. Thursday Pro did what every desk does after a paid trade. They sold the long calls and bought back insurance. They cut 79655 long calls. That is 69 percent of We…

Segment 4 | FII Doubled Down Short. The Crowd Chased Late.

Now here is what is interesting. On the same day the Pro desk was trimming the bullish bet the foreign desk was doing the opposite. FII added 8660 fresh short futures. They added 24718 fresh short calls. They added 40196 fresh long puts. Three legs leaning the same way. That is real bearish positioning. The foreign book has been short the index for six weeks now while staying long the underlying stocks. Yesterday they doubled down on the index short. And the retail crowd. They added 33471 long calls and sold 43801 puts. Buying calls and selling puts at the same time after a rally got rejected.…

Segment 5 | The Friday Trade Plan And The 4 To 1 Hedge Math

Every condition that made me a buyer on Wednesday is still there. Plus a fresh oil crack. The dip-buy thesis lives. It missed the level by 600 points yesterday but it caught the direction the next morning. That is what overnight tape does. It corrects the day's overreaction. On Nifty the line is 23600. Yesterday's low was 23584. So 23600 to 23700 is the buy zone. Above 23800 we sit and watch. Above 23900 we have a clean run at 24000 by Monday close. Below 23600 we wait again. On Sensex the line is 75000. Above yesterday's low at 74897. So 74900 to 75300 is the buy zone. Above 75500 we are back…

Segment 6 | Gold In The Duty Trap And The Cash Flow Floor

The one thing on my screen that is red. Gold. MCX gold is sitting at 159000. Down another half percent overnight. The duty hike is still digesting. If you own jewellery stocks you are still in the duty trap. If you are watching gold for an entry 158000 is the line to see if it holds. Below that we get a flush. Cash flows yesterday. Foreign desk sold 1891 crore. Domestic mutual funds bought 2492 crore. Domestic absorbed 132 percent of foreign selling. Third session in a row. Domestic flows are the support under this market right now and they have been for weeks, months and years.

CTA Close | Honest Grade And Buy The Dip Not The Open

Yesterday's honest grade. Four out of six testable calls hit. Brent under 110. Rupee strengthens. Avoid the open. Below 23700 we wait. The two misses were the 75500 level and the 24000 next leg. The level missed by 600. The next leg path never activated. Macro right. Levels tight but wrong direction at the close. If you want to follow the live calls and the strategy book, RupeeCase Nifty is streaming free on rupeecase.com. Day 4 alpha number prints today. Have a great Friday guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. This is The Tanmay Edge.

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. So I am sitting here at 8 AM in the morning looking at my screen and I am going to be honest with you guys. Yesterday I told you to buy the dip at 75500 on Sensex. The dip went to 74897. That is 600 points deeper than I said. The level broke. By close Sensex was trading at 75200. If you bought 75500 you were sitting on 300 points of loss this morning. I owe you the honesty before we go anywhere else. This is The Tanmay Edge. Episode 45. Season 2. Let's go. But here is the part nobody is talking about. While Sensex was breaking 75500 yesterday afternoon, the rupee was strengthening. USDINR closed at 96.19. That is 63 paise stronger than yesterday morning's 96.82. On a day Brent went back up to 107. That should not happen. If oil rebounds the rupee should weaken. The rupee strengthened anyway. Which means the bid in the rupee is not coming from oil mechanics. It is coming from something else. And then I opened my laptop this morning. And Brent crude is at 104. Last night at 9 PM it was around 108. In 11 hours Brent has dropped another 3.5%. WTI is at 97.36, back below the 100 mark. And yesterday's bounce I thought the crack from Wednesday was done. It is not done. The macro story is doubling down while we sleep. And Asia is ripping again. Nikkei is up by 2.25%. Taiwan is up by 1.61%. Hang Seng is up by 0.92%. KOSPI added another 0.32% on top of yesterday's 6.8% rally. Four major Asian tapes are all trading in green. US futures also in green. Dow up 139 points, S&P was up by 12, and Nasdaq was up by 22 points. Every chart on my screen this morning is green except for one. And we will come to that as well. So GIFT Nifty at 8 AM is trading at 23668. That is 14 points above yesterday's Nifty cash close of 23654. Small gap up, not a giant one. Which is actually what I want, because a giant gap up gets faded by the writers. A 14 point gap up means today we are opening pretty much where we closed and the market gets to choose the direction on its ow…

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