Season 2, Episode 46 | 2026-05-25

Brent Below 100. FII Blinked. Monthly Expiry Tomorrow

The foreign desk is covering. Friday they trimmed 6198 short futures and 94113 short calls in one session. After six straight weeks of stacking that short higher. The first crack in a position takes six weeks. Friday was the first crack.

Cold Open | FII First Crack In Six Weeks

So I am sitting here Monday morning at 8 AM and I am going to start with the part nobody on Twitter is saying out loud. The foreign desk is covering. Not all at once. Not yet. But Friday they trimmed 6198 short futures contracts and 94113 short calls in one session. After six straight weeks of stacking that short higher every Tuesday and Thursday. The first crack in a wall takes 10 minutes to make. The first crack in a position takes six weeks. Friday was the first crack. This is The Tanmay Edge. Episode 46. Season 2.

Segment 1 | Pro Paid Both Sides In Record Size

And while the foreign desk was quietly covering, the professional desk did something I have never seen them do this size in a single session. They added 186102 long calls. And on the same session they added 150735 long puts. Both sides. Not one or the other. Both. That is a desk paying for movement to come. Not direction. Movement. They are telling you Tuesday is going to move. They are not telling you which way. This pattern has now repeated five times in the May series. EP41 it caught the V at 23317. EP42 it caught the bounce to 23650. EP43 the day before Sensex weekly. EP44 the Brent crack …

Segment 2 | Brent Below 100 And The Peace Pivot Came Back

Now the macro. Brent crude is at 99.03 this morning. Down 4.36 percent overnight. Below 100 for the first time in this oil cycle. WTI is at 92.24. Down 4.51 percent. The peace pivot that died on Wednesday came back to life on Sunday night. Trump apparently said the Iran war is in its final stages over the weekend. The market read it. Oil cracked. The rupee strengthened. USDINR opened this morning at 95.69. Friday close was 96.20. The rupee gained 51 paise overnight on a Sunday. That does not happen unless something structural moved. Gold ticked up to 4561 dollars. Dollar Index slid to 99.01. U…

Segment 3 | Asia Ripping And US At Three ATHs

Asia is ripping. Nikkei at 65192. Up 1853 points. Up 2.93 percent. New all time high. Hang Seng up 0.85. Taiwan up 2.82. Shanghai up 0.60. Four for four Asian green. US Friday closed at fresh highs. Dow 50914. S and P 7473. Nasdaq 26343. Three indices. Three all time highs. Eight week win streak on the S and P. Last time we had an eight week streak was December 2023. GIFT Nifty is at 23958 at 8 AM. That is 267 points above Friday's Nifty cash close of 23719. A 1.11 percent gap up. That is a big gap up. Big gap ups get faded by the writers in the first hour. Almost every time. The setup tells y…

Segment 4 | Friday Chain Locked The Magnet At 23750

Friday the 26 May options chain on Nifty did three things that all point the same way. The call sellers at 23700 unwound 27 lakh contracts in one session. The call sellers at 23800 unwound 12 lakh. Almost no resistance left between the open and 24000. On the put side, the put sellers stacked 13 lakh fresh contracts at 23500. They stacked 18 lakh at 23750. They stacked 10 lakh at 23800. The biggest single session put stack of the May series is at 23750. Sellers are leaving the upside. Sellers are defending the downside. Between 23500 and 23800, the institutions have planted a support shelf. Abo…

Segment 5 | Monday Trade Plan And The 3 To 1 Hedge

Today is Monday. Tomorrow is Tuesday monthly expiry. We have one full session to position. Do not chase the gap up open. If GIFT 23958 holds at 9.15 AM open you are already 240 points above Friday close. The first move is almost always a fade by the writers. Wait. The buy zone is 23800 to 23900 on the pullback. If we touch 23850 in the first hour you are at the magnet. That is your level. Above 24000 today we take some off. Below 23700 we re-read. Below 23500 we stand down. On Sensex Friday close 75415, GIFT implied open around 76200. Pullback zone 75800 to 76000. Above 76500 trim into Wednesd…

Segment 6 | RBI Swap Tuesday And The Cash Flow Floor

One thing to watch by 11 AM. The RBI 5 billion dollar buy-sell swap auction lands tomorrow on the same day as the three expiries. RBI is putting dollars into the system on the same Tuesday that decides where Nifty monthly settles, where Bank Nifty first monthly under the new last Tuesday rule settles, and where the weekly Nifty settles. That is not random scheduling. They are giving the rupee a cushion into the supply event. If USDINR holds below 96 by Tuesday close, the dollar swap worked. If it does not, that becomes Wednesday's story. Cash flows Friday. Foreign desk sold 4440 crore. Domesti…

CTA Close | Friday Grade And The Monday Read

Friday's grade. The 23600 to 23700 buy zone caught the dip at 23671. The Sensex 74900 stand-down trigger never fired. The 96.30 rupee gate held at 96.20 close. Three out of five testable calls hit. The two misses were the above 23900 path and the hedge math, which got more expensive as volatility moved from 14.84 to 17.82. Direction right. Levels right. Volatility regime miscalibrated. If you want to follow the live calls and the strategy book, RupeeCase Nifty just rebalanced this morning. Ten new names. Day one alpha number prints by Tuesday close. Streaming free on rupeecase.com. Have a grea…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. So I am sitting here on Monday morning at 8 AM and I am going to start with the part nobody on Twitter is saying out loud. The foreign desk is covering. Not all at once, not yet, but on Friday they trimmed 6198 short futures contracts, 94000 short calls in one session. After 6 straight weeks of stacking the short higher every Tuesday and Thursday, the first crack in the wall takes 10 minutes to make. The first crack in position takes 6 weeks. Friday was that first crack and you are listening to the Tanmay Edge. Today is episode 46. Let's go. And while the foreign desk was quietly covering, the professional desk did something I have never seen them do this size in one single session. They added 1,86,102 long calls. And on the same session, they added 1,50,735 long puts. Both sides, no one direction or other. In the numbers that is the desk playing for the moment, not the direction yet. And moment they are telling you Tuesday is going to move. They are not telling you which way but the move is going to come in. The pattern has repeated five times in May series. Episode 41 caught it the V shape at 23300. Episode 42 caught it from the bounce at 23650. Episode 43 as well before Sensex weekly. Episode 44 caught it on Brent crackdown. And now Friday it stacks the biggest version of all five before the monthly settlement. When the same desk repeats the same setup five times and gets paid four times, you stop calling it a coincidence. You know what to do. And if you don't, listen to it and I'm going to explain what I'm going to take a trade on. Now the macros. Brent crude is trading at 99.03 this morning, down 4.36%, below 100 for the first time in this oil cycle. WTI is trading at 92.20, down 4.51%. The peace pivot that died on Wednesday came back on life on Sunday night. Trump apparently said the Iran war is in its final stages over the weekend. The market has read it. Oil has cracked. The rupee has strengthened as well. USDINR opened this morning…

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