Season 2, Episode 49 | 2026-05-29
Buy The Dip. 24000 Today. Protect Over The Weekend
Three sectoral indices touched 52 week highs on Wednesday. Power closed up 3.27%. Capital Goods up 3.21%. Metal up 1.74%. And the Sensex closed down 141.90 points. The headline said red. The chart said something else.
Cold Open | The Headline Said Red. The Chart Said Something Else.
Very good morning. This is The Tanmay Edge. Episode 49. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Wednesday at close the Sensex was down 142 points. The headline said red. Nifty closed at 23908. Basically flat. Most people who looked at the index and walked away thought the market did nothing. The market did a lot of things on Wednesday. The BSE Power index closed up 3.27%. Capital Goods closed up 3.21%. Metal closed up 1.74%. All three sectoral indices touched fresh 52 week highs during the day. On the same Wednesday the Sensex closed in the red. The drag was idiosyncratic. The bet underneath was something …
The HDFCBANK Story | One Stock Ate The Sensex
Two letters explain Wednesday. HDFCBANK down 2.63%. Given its weight in the Sensex that one stock ate roughly 260 index points by itself. Strip HDFCBANK out and the Sensex closed up Wednesday. The headline number lied about the underlying tape. The Sensex moved on one ticker. Everything else moved the other way. Bank Nifty cash closed 54854 down 0.43%, also dragged by the private bank pack. The Nifty intraday range was 23858 to 23984. That is 126 points on a 23900 ATM. Calm. Advance decline on the Nifty 50 was 34 advances to 16 declines. The breadth was buy under the headline.
VIX 15.24 | The Cost Of Insurance Just Collapsed
India VIX closed Wednesday at 15.24 down 5.5%. Some prints during the day hit 14.98. Either way that is a sub 15 print and a regime change from where we were last week and last month. The market is pricing calm into a holiday shortened week with a Saturday and a Sunday of news risk ahead. DIIs bought 3821 crore on Wednesday. FIIs sold 1042 crore in cash. The domestic absorption ratio runs 3.66 to 1. In past episodes when that ratio runs above 3 the buyer conviction has carried for one to two weeks. The flow story is the loudest part of this read.
Three Players Three Bets One Market
The NSE participant report for Wednesday shows three different desks doing three different things on the same chain. Retail (Client) closed net long 137000 index futures and short 705000 puts. They sold the floor. Bullish, confident, pocketing the premium as the market oscillates. Professional desk closed almost flat on futures at minus 8810. Long both option legs. Net long 96000 calls and net long 235000 puts. Long gamma. Paying for movement in either direction with a heavier hand on the downside. Not bearish. Buying the cheapness of the insurance. FII closed net short 163000 index futures an…
Chain Map | Magnet 23900, Wall 24000, Range 23525 To 24289
Magnet on the Nifty 02 Jun chain sits at 23900. Cushion below runs 23800 to 23700 where put writers have been selling the floor. First real obstacle on the upside is 24000 where call writers stacked the heaviest open interest of the entire chain at 8.65 million contracts. Above that 24200 sits as secondary resistance. ATM straddle 305.25. One standard deviation move on Friday by 1.25 is 382 points. Expected day range 23525 to 24289. GIFT Nifty 23889 is plus 0.07%. Flat open into the gap. India 10 year bond yield 6.98%, first sub 7 print of this cycle. The bond market is pricing rate cuts and d…
The Trade Plan | Buy The Dip, Protect Over The Weekend
Three steps for Friday. One. Buy the dip on any open back to 23870 or below. Magnet says 23900. Base case is a touch of 24000. Two. If 24000 breaks on volume with call writers covering, look for 24200 as the next resistance zone where the market should start consolidating. Three. Do not carry short option positions into the Friday close. Long volatility over the weekend is a good bet given how cheap insurance is. A US holiday weekend with headline risk the market is not pricing. Buying insurance when it is cheap is what professionals do. Simpler version. Buy Nifty Bees or one Nifty futures lot…
Sectors, Catalysts, And EP48 Grade
Power, Capital Goods and Metal lead the breadth read with three fresh 52 week highs. Auto closed up 1.45% Wednesday with 93% of constituents advancing, the strongest breadth in the entire sectoral pack. Pharma, PSU Bank, Energy and Infrastructure all came in green with 80% plus advance decline ratios. Defensives FMCG, IT and the private banks were the drag. Catalysts. US holiday weekend. Brent sub 100 for the seventh consecutive session. India 10Y at 6.98%. US fresh record close S&P 7563 and Nasdaq 26917. Asia open green Nikkei plus 1.83%, KOSPI plus 2.47%, Taiwan plus 2.13%, Hang Seng plus 0.…
Highlights
- Sensex closed 75868 down 141.90 on Wednesday
- Nifty closed 23908 down 0.03% intraday range 23858 to 23984
- BSE Power up 3.27% Capital Goods up 3.21% Metal up 1.74% all three touched fresh 52 week highs
- HDFCBANK down 2.63% ate roughly 260 Sensex points by itself
- Bank Nifty cash 54854 down 0.43% dragged by private bank pack
- India VIX 15.24 down 5.5% intraday low 14.98 first sub 15 print of this cycle
- DII bought 3821 crore FII sold 1042 crore absorption ratio 3.66 to 1
- FII net short 163000 index futures wrote 200000 fresh calls bought 437000 long puts
- Pro flat futures at minus 8810 long 96000 calls long 235000 puts long gamma both sides
- Client net long 137000 index futures short 705000 puts selling the floor
- Nifty 02 Jun ATM straddle 305.25 one SD 382 points range 23525 to 24289
- Magnet 23900 cushion 23800 to 23700 wall 24000 with 8.65 million contracts
- GIFT Nifty 23889 flat plus 0.07% pre open
- India 10 year bond yield 6.98% first sub 7 print of this cycle
- Brent 92.2 WTI 88 sub 100 for the seventh consecutive session
- S&P 500 fresh record 7563 Nasdaq 26917 closing Thursday US
- Asia open green Nikkei plus 1.83% KOSPI plus 2.47% Taiwan plus 2.13%
- Auto up 1.45% with 93% breadth advancing strongest sectoral read of the day
- EP48 5 point grade 4 hit 1 strict miss band miss by 32 points
- Buy zone 23850 to 23880 base case 24000 stretch 24200 with 23800 put weekend hedge
Transcript Excerpt
Very good morning guys. This is the Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 49. I am Tanmay Kurtukoti. Let's go. Wednesday at close, the Sensex was down 142 points. The headline said red. Nifty closed at 23 ,908. Basically flat. Most people who looked at the index and walked away thought the market did nothing. The markets did a lot of things here. on wednesday the bsc power index closed up 3 .27 percent that's a sectorial index doing 3 .27 capital goods closed 3 .2 percent metal closed up 1 .75 percent and here is the line you have to hold in your head for the rest of this episode three of those sectorial index power capital goods and metals all touched their 52 week highs during the day three on the same wednesday the sensex closed in the red the headline hit the chart but actually sensex did something amazing so how does a market with three sectorial 52 week highs close down 142 points on that day Two letters, HDFC Bank down 2 .63 % on Wednesday. That one stock given its weight in the Sensex ate almost 260 index points by itself. Strip HDFC Bank out and the Sensex was up on Wednesday actually. The drag was idiosyncratic. The bet underneath was something... else entirely now let me get to wednesday's close details because today's plan depends on them nifty closed at 23 908 down almost seven seven points the intraday high was 23 984 the intraday low was 23 858 a range of just 125 points on a 23 900 atm index is calm move the advance decline on nifty 50 was also quite positive 68 that is 34 advances to 16 declines sensex closed at 75 868 down 142 points with hdfc bank doing the damage bank nifty cash closed at 54 854 down 0 .43 also dragged by private banks the two most important numbers from wednesday are not on the index india weeks closed at 15 .24 down 5 .5 on the same day some prints had it at low as 14 .98 during the day either way that is a sub 15 print and that is a regime change from where we were on t on last week and last month as well the market is pri…
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