Season 2, Episode 53 | 2026-06-04

Sensex Expiry Day, And The Big Money Is Short

Today the Sensex week settles | expiry day | and by this afternoon every Sensex option either pays off or expires worthless. That's job one.

Cold Open | Expiry Today, The Rate Call Tomorrow

A very good morning, guys. Today is the day the Sensex week settles. Expiry day. By this afternoon every Sensex option on the board either pays off or expires worthless, and the market spends the whole session fighting over exactly where that line gets drawn. That is job number one today. Sitting one day behind it, like a shadow, is the Reserve Bank's rate verdict tomorrow morning. So today you trade the expiry, but you trade it knowing nobody wants to carry a big bet into that decision. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 53. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go.

The Sensex | Boxed Between 74000 And 75000

Start with today's battlefield, the Sensex, because it expires in a few hours. The range is clear. 74000 on the downside, 75000 on the upside, about a thousand points apart. The heaviest pile of downside bets is parked at 74000, the heaviest upside lid at 75000. The option market is pricing a move of about 650 points for the day. That is the straddle, what you pay to bet on a move either way. And on expiry, price tends to get dragged toward the middle, toward the level where the largest number of option buyers walk away with nothing. That magnet today sits around 74300 to 74500. So the base ca…

The Warning | Sensex Options Die Into The Close

One warning if you are trading Sensex options today. They die this afternoon. The volatility baked into them collapses into the close. So if you buy a Sensex option for direction and the market just sits, which is the base case, you can lose half your premium to time decay alone, without the market moving a single point your way. On expiry, in a quiet tape, the option seller wins. Respect that.

The Nifty | The Cleaner Trade Carrying Tomorrow

Now the Nifty, which is the cleaner trade, because it is still carrying tomorrow's event in its price. Nifty closed at 23405. The option market is pricing a weekly move of about 375 points, which stretches to a band of roughly 22940 on the downside to 23875 on the upside. Inside that, three levels run your day. 23300 is the support, the heaviest stack of downside protection sits there and buyers have defended it. 23500 is the resistance, and yesterday a massive wall of fresh upside bets landed at exactly that strike, almost 3 million contracts in a single day. That is a hard lid now, about 95 …

The Plan | Buy Dips, Sell Rallies, Stay Long Volatility

Here is the plan in plain terms. While 23300 holds on a closing basis, you buy the dips. The zone is 23300 to 23330, stop just under 23250. But you only trust the upside once you are back above 23450. Until then, every push into 23500 is a sell on rise, a place to book, not chase. Lose 23300 on a close and the next stop is 23200, then 23000. That is your tell the market is getting scared and pre positioning for a bad rate call. And the trade that is already paying. A couple of sessions ago I told you this was a long volatility setup, buy the strangle into the event, do not sell your options. I…

The Standoff | Foreigners Short, Homes Buying

The positioning underneath tells you why everyone is cautious. In the index futures, foreign investors are now net short 259253 contracts, and they piled on almost 29000 fresh shorts just yesterday. That is their most defensive stance all week, built deliberately, right before the rate decision. On the other side, the retail crowd is net long, almost 196000 contracts. The professionals are slightly long and busy writing options, plenty of calls written and puts bought. So big foreign money short and hedged, the small trader long against them, into the biggest event of the week. When the smart …

EP52 Graded | Three Of Five, IT Was The Miss

The cash market agrees. Foreigners sold another 5336 crore yesterday on the NSE, but our own institutions bought 5510 crore, their sixth straight day of buying. That domestic wall is the whole reason Wednesday held. Because Wednesday was ugly under the hood. The IT sector fell more than 5 percent, led lower by its heavyweight TCS, and yet the index barely moved. The banks rotated up and caught it. Rotation, not collapse. Quick scorecard on yesterday's five calls. Three landed. 74000 held, crude stayed under 97, yields held at 7.02. The miss was IT, which I said would lead and instead led the f…

The World And The Shadow | Crude Cools Into The RBI

The world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red, Japan down nearly 2 percent, Korea down 2, America closed lower overnight. The reason the mood soured this week is crude, renewed US and Iran tensions spiked oil toward 98 on Brent. But here is the relief, it has cooled this morning, back to 96 and change, under 97. Gold is firm at 4466, the rupee at 95.71, the 10 year bond steady at 7.02, and even Bitcoin slipped under 70000. The two things that could have boxed in the Reserve Bank, runaway crude and spiking yields, have both gone quiet …

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. Today is the Sensex weekly expiry. By this afternoon, every Sensex option on the board either pays off or expires worthless, and the market spends the 375 minutes fighting over exactly where that line gets drawn. That is job number one for today. And sitting one day behind it, like a shadow, is the RBI's rate verdict tomorrow morning. So today you trade the expiry | but you trade it knowing nobody wants to carry a big bet into tomorrow's decision. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 53. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Let's start with today's battlefield, the Sensex, because it expires in the next few hours. The range is extremely clear | 74000 on the downside and 75000 on the upside, about a thousand points apart. The heaviest pile of downside bets is parked at 74000, the heaviest upside resistance at 75000. The options market is pricing a move of around 650 points for the day | that's the straddle, what you pay to bet on a move either way. And here's the thing about expiry: price tends to get tracked towards the middle, towards the level where the largest number of option buyers walk away with nothing. That magnet today sits around 74300 to 74500. So my base case for the Sensex is a grind back towards that middle and a settle, with almost negligible change overnight, unless something forces it out of that range. One warning, guys | if you are trading Sensex options today, they die this afternoon. The volatility baked into them collapses into the close. So if you buy a Sensex option for direction and the market just sits there, which is the base case, you can lose half of your premium to time decay alone, without the market moving a single point your way. On expiry, in a quiet tape, the option seller wins. Respect that, and remember that today as well. So now the Nifty, which is the cleaner trade, because the Nifty is still carrying tomorrow's event in its price. Nifty closed at 23405. The options market is pricing a wee…

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