Season 2, Episode 55 | 2026-06-08

A Red Monday Imported. 23000 Is The Line. Long Gamma Day

While we slept this weekend, the rest of the world fell apart. Friday night Wall Street cracked: the Nasdaq dropped 4.18 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.64 percent. This morning Asia joined the selling, Japan down 4.17 percent, Korea down 6.

Cold Open | A Red Monday Imported From The World

A very good morning, guys. While we were sleeping this weekend, the rest of the world fell apart. Friday night Wall Street cracked, the Nasdaq down 4.18 percent, the S&P down 2.64 percent. Then Asia woke up and joined the selling: Japan down 4.17 percent, Korea down 6.15 percent, Taiwan down 5.08 percent, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Shanghai all red. And crude jumped more than 3 percent overnight, Brent back to 96 dollars. The whole world is dumping stocks and buying oil at the same time. Our market did nothing wrong on Friday. We are about to open sharply lower, not because of anything that happened …

Friday Graded | Three Of Five, Full Scorecard On The Website

One line on Friday before we trade. Three out of five calls landed. The full scorecard, every level and every number, lives on the website. Today is the only thing that matters now, and the weekend changed the question completely.

The 23000 Line | Gapping Onto The Heaviest Put Wall

GIFT Nifty is sitting at 23137 as I record. Friday we closed at 23366. So we are looking at a gap down of roughly 230 points at the open, straight onto a very specific battlefield. Below us, at 23000, sits the heaviest pile of put contracts on the board, 92 lakh of them, the floor everyone is watching. Above us, the level we just lost, 23300, has 74 lakh puts that now flip into resistance overhead, and 23500 above that is the call ceiling that capped every rally last week. We open in a tight box, 23000 to 23300, and the whole day is a fight over which edge breaks first.

What The Options Market Prices | Straddle 280 And A Sleeping VIX

The cost to bet on a move either way into tomorrow's expiry, the straddle, is about 280 points. Multiply that out and the market is pricing the whole week to land between 23000 and 23700. So 23000 is not just a support level, it is the bottom edge of the entire range the option market thinks is even possible by tomorrow. Lose it on a closing basis and the floor reprices lower in real time. And the volatility was fast asleep. India VIX closed Friday at 15.79, the one week move priced under 13 percent. That is the calm before the storm, and on a morning like today that number does not stay down,…

India Has Not Caught Down Yet | The Sell The Rise Bias

Look at how far the rest of the world has already fallen, Korea down 6.15, Japan down 4.17, Taiwan down 5.08. And look at us, gapping down barely 1 percent. We have not caught down yet. India walked into this weekend more crowded, more expensive, the foreign desk already heavily short. That combination does not make us safer, it makes us better set up for a fall, because we have the most room left to travel down to meet them. A 1 percent gap against a 6 percent rout is not protection, it is unfinished business. Every bounce today is a place to sell, not a reason to relax.

The Actual Book | FII Three Legs Short, Pros Long Gamma, Retail Trapped

The foreign desks are net short index futures by 267706 contracts, the heaviest of the run, and they added on Friday even after the bank held. They are short about 276000 index calls and long over 530000 index puts. Futures short, calls short, puts long, all three legs point down. For once the biggest desk on the screen is standing exactly where the morning landed. The local pros did something smarter. Net long futures by only about 21000, but long around 181000 calls and 257000 puts at the same time. They bought both sides and paid to be in the move whichever way it goes. They care about dist…

Trampoline Or Trapdoor | The Put Wall Mechanic At 23000

A heavy put wall like the 23000 we are about to test is either a trampoline or a trapdoor, and you do not know which until the first half hour tells you. The traders who sold those 92 lakh puts do not want 23000 to break, because if it breaks they lose. So at first they defend it, and that defence can bounce the market hard, a trampoline. But if the selling is too strong and 23000 breaks and stays broken, those same sellers are forced to protect themselves by selling futures, and that pours petrol on the fire. The trampoline becomes a trapdoor. Same level, same people, opposite outcome. The on…

The Plan And The Watchlist | Sell The Rise, Five Things To Grade

The bias is clear, you sell the rise. Do not catch the knife at the open, let it print a low and let 23000 show its hand. Treat the bounce as a selling opportunity, sell rallies into 23300 and 23400 with a stop just above 23400, because below that line the sellers own the tape. Only a clean reclaim and hold above 23400 pauses the bear case. If 23000 breaks and stays broken, go with it, next stops 22850 then 22500. For a smaller account the movement day trade is your friend: buy one 23000 put to ride the fall, or one 23300 call as a lottery on a short covering snap back. Define your risk, these…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. While we were sleeping this weekend, the rest of the world fell apart. Friday night Wall Street cracked, the Nasdaq dropped 4.18 percent, the S&P down 2.64 percent. And then Asia woke up this morning and joined the selling. Japan is down 4.17 percent, Korea is down 6.15 percent, Taiwan is down 5.08 percent, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Shanghai, all red. And on top of that, crude oil has jumped more than 3 percent overnight, Brent is back up to 96 dollars. So the whole world is dumping stocks and buying oil at the same time. Our markets did nothing wrong on Friday. We are about to open sharply lower this morning, not because of anything that has happened in India, but because of everything that has happened elsewhere. So this is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 55. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. One line on Friday before we trade. 3 out of 5 calls landed. The full scorecard, every level and every number, lives on the website. Today is the only thing that matters now, and the weekend has changed that question completely. Our GIFT Nifty is sitting at 23137 as I record this podcast. Friday we closed at 23366. So we are looking at a gap down of roughly 230 points at the open. That drops us straight onto a very specific battlefield, because today we open between two lines. Below us, at 23000, sits the heaviest pile of put contracts on the board, 92 lakh of them, that is the support, the floor everyone is watching. Above us, the level we just lost, 23300, has 74 lakh put contracts that now flip into resistance over our head, that is the resistance. And 23500 above that level is the call ceiling that capped every rally last week. So we open in a tight box of 23000 to 23300, and that entire day is a fight over which edge breaks first. And here is what the options market itself is saying about the size of this fight. The cost to bet on a move either way into tomorrow's expiry, the straddle, is trading about 280 points. Multiply that and the ma…

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