Season 2, Episode 58 | 2026-06-11
Expiry Gaps Down Onto The Cushion. 73500 Decides
At 3:30 on Wednesday the Sensex settled just 17 points from 74000, the most loaded strike on its board, with its own weekly expiry due this morning. A bullseye for the option sellers. Then overnight the table moved.
Cold Open | A Bullseye, Then Somebody Moved The Table
A very good morning, guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex settled 17 points from 74000, the most loaded strike on its board, with its own expiry this morning. A bullseye for the option sellers. And then, overnight, somebody moved the table. Wall Street's tech wreck ran a second day, and our pre market screen has been sliding all morning. Expiry day opens 500 points below the magnet. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 58.
Scorecard | EP57 Graded 3.5 Of 4
Episode 57 graded 3.5 out of 4 gradeable calls. The expiry pin call landed 17 points from the bullseye, 23200 held, and the premium sellers got paid. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com.
The Tape | Two Markets Wearing One Index
Nifty closed 23215, down 27, basically flat. Sensex closed 73983, up 64. Boring, right? Look underneath. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 16 rose and 34 fell. The midcap index dropped one and a half percent, smallcaps 1.1. Media down 2.4 percent, energy down 2, metal down 1.7, and the PSU banks that ripped 3.6 on Tuesday gave back 1.4. So what was green? FMCG, up one percent. Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and the big private banks, Axis, Kotak, ICICI, HDFC. That is not buying, that is hiding. Money spent Wednesday rotating into the most defensive corner of the market while the index stood still.
The Ceiling | 80 Lakh Contracts Stacked In One Day
The intraday shape tells you who is in charge. We rallied to 23425 by two o'clock, the Sensex touched 74613, and then the last ninety minutes got sold straight into the close. The fresh options data explains it. While we rallied, the call sellers were stacking the ceiling: at 23300, 23400 and 23500 they added nearly 80 lakh contracts in one day. 23400 alone now holds 60 lakh, the biggest single build on the Nifty board. The market walked into that ceiling at 23425 and the sellers slammed the window shut.
The Desks | They Blinked. Barely.
Did the foreign desk finally cover the mountain short? They blinked. Barely. Out of 277000 contracts net short in index futures, they covered about 5000. Less than two percent. Day four, still 272000 short, still loaded with protective puts, still short calls. Three legs, all pointing down, unmoved. And they sold another 1919 crore of cash stock on top. Against them, the domestic institutions bought 2950 crore, the eleventh straight buying day. The proprietary desks halved their futures longs from 22000 to 12000 but kept options on both sides, paid if the market moves big either way. And retai…
Expiry Board | Cushion 73500, Switch 73900, Magnet 74000
The pre market screen slid from 23112 to about 23043 in half an hour, pointing to a Nifty open near 23050, roughly 165 points down, and a Sensex open around 73450 to 73500. On the Sensex expiry board, 73500 holds nearly 16 lakh puts, the writers added over 8 lakh of those just yesterday. That is the cushion, and we are opening right on top of it. The ceiling has moved up, 74500 holds 18 lakh calls and 75000 holds 23 lakh, the biggest wall on the board. Below us, 73000 holds nearly 19 lakh puts, almost 10 lakh added in a single session. Somebody spent Wednesday buying insurance a thousand point…
The Plan | The First 30 Minutes Decide Everything
If 73500 holds the opening test and we reclaim 73900 inside that window, the day flips back to magnet mode and the drift goes home toward 74000 into the close. That is where the premium sellers eat. If 73500 breaks and stays broken for half an hour, do not argue with it, the trapdoor is open and 73000 comes fast, and that is where retail's 7.7 lakh written puts start burning. On Nifty, same logic, one floor lower. 23000 carries 46 lakh puts, the foundation of the whole structure, and I expect it to hold a first test. Only back above 23200 does the old range resume. The ceiling at 23300 to 2350…
Education And Risk | Patience Is The Position
Yesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is rising, not falling. The at the money straddle at 74000 costs about 556 points, and its implied volatility jumped nearly 8 percent into the close. The market is paying up for protection on expiry morning, which it almost never does when it expects a quiet pin. So do not sell premium blind at the open. A gap through your strike on expiry day can take away in one hour what took weeks to collect. Let the first half hour pick the side. The honest risk sits outside the chain. Brent at 94 and a …
Highlights
- Nifty closed 23215 down 27, Sensex closed 73983 up 64
- 16 of 50 Nifty stocks rose, 34 fell, midcaps lost 1.5 percent
- Media down 2.4, energy down 2, metal down 1.7, PSU banks gave back 1.4
- FMCG up 1 percent, the only green corner, HUL ITC and private banks
- Intraday high 23425 at 2 pm, Sensex touched 74613, last 90 minutes sold
- Call sellers added nearly 80 lakh contracts at 23300 23400 23500 in one day
- 23400 alone holds 60 lakh contracts, biggest single build on the Nifty board
- FII covered about 5000 of 277000 short index futures, under 2 percent, day 4
- FII sold 1919 crore cash, DII bought 2950 crore, 11th straight buying day
- Pro desks halved futures longs 22000 to 12000, options on both sides
- Clients long 2 lakh futures, short nearly 7.7 lakh puts
- Pre market screen slid 23112 to 23043, Nifty open near 23050, gap of about 165 points
- Sensex opens 73450 to 73500, right on the 73500 cushion of 16 lakh puts
- 73000 holds 19 lakh puts, almost 10 lakh added in one session
- Ceiling 74500 holds 18 lakh calls, 75000 holds 23 lakh, biggest wall
- Switch level 73900, opening below it means moves get amplified not absorbed
- 74000 straddle near 556 points, expiry IV jumped nearly 8 percent into close
- Nifty floor 23000 with 46 lakh puts, line 23200, ceiling 23300 to 23500
- Brent 94.25 up over 1 percent, rupee 95.27, Brent above 96 reverses the bank trade
- Longs only above 74000 on Sensex and 23200 on Nifty
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Yesterday at 3:30, Sensex closed at 17 points above that 74,000 mark, the most loaded strike on the option chain, with its own expiry today. A bullseye for option sellers. And then overnight, somebody moved the table. Wall Street tech wreck ran a second day, and our pre-market screen has been bleeding all morning. Expiry day opens 500 points below the magnet. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 58. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So, quick scorecard before we proceed. Episode 57, 3.5 out of 4 gradable calls. The expiry pin call landed 17 points from the bullseye. 23,200 held and premium sellers got paid. Full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. Now, Wednesday's tape. Yesterday, because two markets were wearing one index, Nifty closed 23,215, down 27 points, basically flat, whereas Sensex closed 73,983, up 64 points. Boring, all looks like. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 16 rose and 34 fell. The midcap index dropped 1.5%, smallcap 1%, media down 2.4%, energy down 2%, metal down 1.7%, and the PSU banks that had ripped 3.6% on Tuesday gave back almost half of it, 1.4% down. FMCG up 1%. Hindustan Unilever, ITC and the big private banks, Axis, Kotak, ICICI, HDFC. That is not the buying. That is the hiding. Money spent Wednesday rotating into the most defensive corners of the market while the index stayed flat. And the intraday shape tells you who is in charge. We rallied to 23,425 by two o'clock, the Sensex had almost touched 74,613, and then the last 90 minutes got sold straight into the close. The fresh options data explains it. While we rallied, the call sellers were stacking the ceiling at 23,300, 23,400 and 23,500. They added nearly 80 lakh contracts in one day. 23,400 alone now holds 60 lakh contracts, the biggest single build-up on the Nifty option chain. The market walked into that resistance at 23,425 and the sellers slammed the window shut. Now the twist I promised you yesterday. Did the FII desks finally cover the mou…
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