Season 2, Episode 59 | 2026-06-12
Gaps Up Into The Ceiling. 23500 Decides
At 3:30 on Thursday the Sensex expiry settled at 73832, after the 73500 cushion held its first test by just 19 points. The board went quiet for the week. Then overnight the world ripped. Korea rose 7.
Cold Open | Then, Overnight, The World Ripped
A very good morning, guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex expiry settled at 73832, the cushion at 73500 held by 19 points, and the board went quiet for the week. Then, overnight, the world ripped. Korea up 7.77 percent in a single session. Japan up 3.8. The Nasdaq bounced two and a half percent. And GIFT Nifty is pointing at a gap up of roughly 250 points, straight into the ceiling our option sellers spent two days cementing. One desk walks into this open short 267000 futures contracts, with a weekend to carry. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 59.
Scorecard | EP58 Graded 3.5 Of 4
Episode 58 graded 3.5 out of 4 gradeable calls, the 73500 cushion held its first test by exactly 19 points. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com.
Thursday's Tape | The Cushion Script, Then The Trap
Expiry day followed the cushion script. We opened at 73616, tested 73519, held, climbed to 74394 by lunch, and then the last two hours got sold, 560 points, to settle at 73832, between the cushion and the magnet. Nifty drew the same shape: low 23072, high 23327, close 23161, down 53. The index looks calm. Underneath, it was anything but. 992 stocks advanced, 2439 declined. IT dropped 1.6, Infosys down 2.7, because Wall Street's tech wreck was still echoing. Banks held flat, ICICI up 1.9, Media popped 1.8. The rupee slipped to 95.76, its weakest in over a year. Volatility slept through all of i…
The Desks | Day Five, Tip Toeing
Same twist as all week, fifth day running. The foreign desk covered about 5000 contracts again, under 2 percent, and stayed net short 267000 index futures. Off their peak of 277000 on Monday they have released barely 10000. That is not covering, that is tip toeing. They sold another 2249 crore of cash stock on top. The domestic institutions bought 4365 crore against them, the twelfth straight buying day. The proprietary desks are nearly flat in futures, around 11000 long, with options stacked on both sides, paid if the market moves big either way, no view on which. And retail is still long 2 l…
Overnight | Somebody Flipped The Table
The Nasdaq, which spent two days wrecking our IT stocks, bounced 2.54 percent. Seoul went vertical, up 7.77 percent in one session. Tokyo added 3.8, Taiwan 2.6, Hong Kong 1.5. Crude cracked under 90, Brent at 89.25, the war premium fully unwound. And GIFT Nifty sits near 23478 against our futures close of 23200. That is a gap up of roughly 250 points, an open somewhere near 23400.
The Board | A Ceiling At 23500, A Springboard At 23200
The sellers spent Wednesday and Thursday cementing a ceiling above us. At 23200 they added 27 lakh fresh calls just yesterday. 23300 holds 58 lakh contracts, 23400 holds 54, and 23500 is the biggest block on the whole board, 72 lakh written calls. The gap clears the first two shelves and lands inside that ceiling. Underneath, the put writers marched up: 26 lakh fresh puts at 23100 and 24 lakh at 23000, which now holds 70 lakh, the foundation. The box reads 23000 to 23500, and the world just shoved us into its top floor. One line matters more than the rest: 23200. That was the lid all week, and…
The Plan | Three Steps
One, if the first 30 minutes hold above 23300, you buy the dips, not the pops. Dips into 23300 to 23250 are the entries, the target is the 23500 ceiling, and the trade is wrong the moment we spend half an hour back below 23200. Two, if the open spikes straight into 23450 to 23500 in the first hour, that is where you sell the rise, because the sellers defend that block on first test. Chasing a breakout long? Only above 23500, and only after it holds for a 15 to 30 minute window. Then 23600 and 23700 open up, with 60 lakh contracts parked at each. Three, if the gap fails and we close back under …
Lesson And Risk | The Weekend Math Of A Crowded Short
The simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The gap will fatten the call side at the open. Do not buy that excitement. If the box sets by noon, Friday afternoon belongs to the premium sellers, because an option sold on Friday collects Saturday and Sunday for free. And the lesson. The foreign desk is short 267000 index futures contracts. A 250 point gap against a short is marked to market tonight, the loss leaves their account this evening whether they exit or not. Hold through the weekend and Monday can gap again before they can reac…
Highlights
- Sensex expiry settled 73832, the 73500 cushion held by 19 points at 73519
- Expiry day opened 73616, lunch high 74394, last 2 hours sold 560 points
- Nifty low 23072, high 23327, close 23161 down 53
- Breadth 992 advanced vs 2439 declined under a calm index
- IT down 1.6, Infosys down 2.7, banks flat, ICICI up 1.9, media up 1.8
- Rupee 95.76 weakest in over a year, VIX dead flat 15.6
- FII covered about 5000 day 5, still net short 267000 index futures
- Off the 277000 Monday peak barely 10000 released
- FII sold 2249 crore cash, DII bought 4365 crore, 12th straight buying day
- Pro desks near flat at 11000 long futures, options both sides
- Clients long 2 lakh futures, short 7.7 lakh index puts
- Overnight Korea up 7.77, Japan 3.8, Taiwan 2.6, Hong Kong 1.5, Nasdaq 2.54
- Brent cracked under 90 to 89.25, war premium unwound
- GIFT 23478 vs futures close 23200, gap up about 250 points, open near 23400
- 27 lakh fresh calls added at 23200, 23300 holds 58 lakh, 23400 holds 54 lakh
- 23500 biggest block on the board with 72 lakh written calls
- Support 26 lakh fresh puts at 23100, 23000 now holds 70 lakh
- Springboard 23200, orderly above it, amplified below it
- Plan: above 23300 buy dips to 23300 23250, sell first rise into 23450 23500
- Tuesday ATM straddle 301, box by noon = afternoon sell premium window, FII cover over 25000 = fuel above 23400
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex expired and settled at 73,832. The cushion at 73,500 held by 19 points and the board went quiet for the week. Then overnight the world ripped. Korea is up 7.7 percent in a single session. Japan is up 3.8 percent. The Nasdaq bounced 2.5 percent. And GIFT Nifty is pointing towards a gap up of roughly 250 points, straight into our resistance. Our option sellers spent two days cementing that resistance. One desk walks into the open short of 2,67,000 contracts with a weekend carry. So this is the brief for today's episode. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 59. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So before we proceed guys, a quick scorecard about yesterday. 3.5 out of 4. 73,500 held, 73,900 was the expiry, it happened exactly over there. Full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. Now Thursday's tape, because it sets the trap for the week as well. Expiry day followed the cushion script. We opened at 73,616 yesterday, tested that 73,519, held that 73,500, and climbed to 74,394 by lunch. And then in the last 2 hours we got sold once again, 560 points, to settle at 73,832, because the cushion and the magnet was present. Nifty drew the same shape. Low of 23,072, high of 23,327, and close at 23,161, down just 53 points. The index looked completely calm. Underneath, it wasn't anything but. 992 stocks advanced, 2,439 declined. IT dropped by 1.6 percent, Infosys down 2.7 percent, because Wall Street's tech wreck was still echoing. Banks held flat, ICICI up 1.9 percent, Media popped out 1.8 percent positive. And the rupee slipped to 95.76, its weakest over this last 10 days. Volatility slept through all of it and is dead flat at 15.6, where the VIX is trading right now. But the same twist as all week, fifth day running into. The FIIs covered just about 5,000 contracts, under 2 percent, and stayed net short about 2,67,000 index futures, off their peak of 2,77,000 on Monday. They have just covered barely 10,000…
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