Season 2, Episode 59 | 2026-06-12
Gaps Up Into The Ceiling. 23,500 Decides
At 3:30 on Thursday the Sensex expiry settled at 73,832, after the 73,500 cushion held its first test by just 19 points. The board went quiet for the week. Then overnight the world ripped. Korea rose 7.
Cold Open | Then, Overnight, The World Ripped
A very good morning, guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex expiry settled at 73,832, the cushion at 73,500 held by 19 points, and the board went quiet for the week. Then, overnight, the world ripped. Korea up 7.77 percent in a single session. Japan up 3.8. The Nasdaq bounced two and a half percent. And GIFT Nifty is pointing at a gap up of roughly 250 points, straight into the ceiling our option sellers spent two days cementing. One desk walks into this open short 2,67,000 futures contracts, with a weekend to carry. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 59.
Scorecard | EP58 Graded 3.5 Of 4
Episode 58 graded 3.5 out of 4 gradeable calls, the 73,500 cushion held its first test by exactly 19 points. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com.
Thursday's Tape | The Cushion Script, Then The Trap
Expiry day followed the cushion script. We opened at 73,616, tested 73,519, held, climbed to 74,394 by lunch, and then the last two hours got sold, 560 points, to settle at 73,832, between the cushion and the magnet. Nifty drew the same shape: low 23,072, high 23,327, close 23,161, down 53. The index looks calm. Underneath, it was anything but. 992 stocks advanced, 2439 declined. IT dropped 1.6, Infosys down 2.7, because Wall Street's tech wreck was still echoing. Banks held flat, ICICI up 1.9, Media popped 1.8. The rupee slipped to 95.76, its weakest in over a year. Volatility slept through a…
The Desks | Day Five, Tip Toeing
Same twist as all week, fifth day running. The foreign desk covered about 5000 contracts again, under 2 percent, and stayed net short 2,67,000 index futures. Off their peak of 2,77,000 on Monday they have released barely 10,000. That is not covering, that is tip toeing. They sold another 2249 crore of cash stock on top. The domestic institutions bought 4365 crore against them, the twelfth straight buying day. The proprietary desks are nearly flat in futures, around 11,000 long, with options stacked on both sides, paid if the market moves big either way, no view on which. And retail is still lo…
Overnight | Somebody Flipped The Table
The Nasdaq, which spent two days wrecking our IT stocks, bounced 2.54 percent. Seoul went vertical, up 7.77 percent in one session. Tokyo added 3.8, Taiwan 2.6, Hong Kong 1.5. Crude cracked under 90, Brent at 89.25, the war premium fully unwound. And GIFT Nifty sits near 23,478 against our futures close of 23,200. That is a gap up of roughly 250 points, an open somewhere near 23,400.
The Board | A Ceiling At 23,500, A Springboard At 23,200
The sellers spent Wednesday and Thursday cementing a ceiling above us. At 23,200 they added 27 lakh fresh calls just yesterday. 23,300 holds 58 lakh contracts, 23,400 holds 54, and 23,500 is the biggest block on the whole board, 72 lakh written calls. The gap clears the first two shelves and lands inside that ceiling. Underneath, the put writers marched up: 26 lakh fresh puts at 23,100 and 24 lakh at 23,000, which now holds 70 lakh, the foundation. The box reads 23,000 to 23,500, and the world just shoved us into its top floor. One line matters more than the rest: 23,200. That was the lid all …
The Plan | Three Steps
One, if the first 30 minutes hold above 23,300, you buy the dips, not the pops. Dips into 23,300 to 23,250 are the entries, the target is the 23,500 ceiling, and the trade is wrong the moment we spend half an hour back below 23,200. Two, if the open spikes straight into 23,450 to 23,500 in the first hour, that is where you sell the rise, because the sellers defend that block on first test. Chasing a breakout long? Only above 23,500, and only after it holds for a 15 to 30 minute window. Then 23,600 and 23,700 open up, with 60 lakh contracts parked at each. Three, if the gap fails and we close b…
Lesson And Risk | The Weekend Math Of A Crowded Short
The simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The gap will fatten the call side at the open. Do not buy that excitement. If the box sets by noon, Friday afternoon belongs to the premium sellers, because an option sold on Friday collects Saturday and Sunday for free. And the lesson. The foreign desk is short 2,67,000 index futures contracts. A 250 point gap against a short is marked to market tonight, the loss leaves their account this evening whether they exit or not. Hold through the weekend and Monday can gap again before they can re…
Highlights
- Sensex expiry settled 73,832, the 73,500 cushion held by 19 points at 73,519
- Expiry day opened 73,616, lunch high 74,394, last 2 hours sold 560 points
- Nifty low 23,072, high 23,327, close 23,161 down 53
- Breadth 992 advanced vs 2439 declined under a calm index
- IT down 1.6, Infosys down 2.7, banks flat, ICICI up 1.9, media up 1.8
- Rupee 95.76 weakest in over a year, VIX dead flat 15.6
- FII covered about 5000 day 5, still net short 2,67,000 index futures
- Off the 2,77,000 Monday peak barely 10,000 released
- FII sold 2249 crore cash, DII bought 4365 crore, 12th straight buying day
- Pro desks near flat at 11,000 long futures, options both sides
- Clients long 2 lakh futures, short 7.7 lakh index puts
- Overnight Korea up 7.77, Japan 3.8, Taiwan 2.6, Hong Kong 1.5, Nasdaq 2.54
- Brent cracked under 90 to 89.25, war premium unwound
- GIFT 23,478 vs futures close 23,200, gap up about 250 points, open near 23,400
- 27 lakh fresh calls added at 23,200, 23,300 holds 58 lakh, 23,400 holds 54 lakh
- 23,500 biggest block on the board with 72 lakh written calls
- Support 26 lakh fresh puts at 23,100, 23,000 now holds 70 lakh
- Springboard 23,200, orderly above it, amplified below it
- Plan: above 23,300 buy dips to 23,300 23,250, sell first rise into 23,450 23,500
- Tuesday ATM straddle 301, box by noon = afternoon sell premium window, FII cover over 25,000 = fuel above 23,400
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex expired and settled at 73,832. The cushion at 73,500 held by 19 points and the board went quiet for the week. Then overnight the world ripped. Korea is up 7.7 percent in a single session. Japan is up 3.8 percent. The Nasdaq bounced 2.5 percent. And GIFT Nifty is pointing towards a gap up of roughly 250 points, straight into our resistance. Our option sellers spent two days cementing that resistance. One desk walks into the open short of 2,67,000 contracts with a weekend carry. So this is the brief for today's episode. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 59. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So before we proceed guys, a quick scorecard about yesterday. 3.5 out of 4. 73,500 held, 73,900 was the expiry, it happened exactly over there. Full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. Now Thursday's tape, because it sets the trap for the week as well. Expiry day followed the cushion script. We opened at 73,616 yesterday, tested that 73,519, held that 73,500, and climbed to 74,394 by lunch. And then in the last 2 hours we got sold once again, 560 points, to settle at 73,832, because the cushion and the magnet was present. Nifty drew the same shape. Low of 23,072, high of 23,327, and close at 23,161, down just 53 points. The index looked completely calm. Underneath, it wasn't anything but. 992 stocks advanced, 2,439 declined. IT dropped by 1.6 percent, Infosys down 2.7 percent, because Wall Street's tech wreck was still echoing. Banks held flat, ICICI up 1.9 percent, Media popped out 1.8 percent positive. And the rupee slipped to 95.76, its weakest over this last 10 days. Volatility slept through all of it and is dead flat at 15.6, where the VIX is trading right now. But the same twist as all week, fifth day running into. The FIIs covered just about 5,000 contracts, under 2 percent, and stayed net short about 2,67,000 index futures, off their peak of 2,77,000 on Monday. They have just covered barely 10,000…
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