Season 2, Episode 60 | 2026-06-15
Second Gap Up. Buy The Dips. 24000 Decides
On Friday this market did something it had not managed in a week. It tore straight through the ceiling. Nifty closed 23622.90, up 461 points, almost 2 percent, with the entire move packed into the last 90 minutes.
Cold Open | Friday Tore Through The Ceiling
A very good morning, guys. On Friday this market did something it had not managed in a week. It tore straight through the ceiling. Nifty closed 23622.90, up 461 points, almost 2 percent, with the entire move packed into the last 90 minutes. The Sensex ran 1695 points to 75527.95. The desk sitting short two and a half lakh contracts had one job that afternoon, cover while it is cheap. They bought back just 23000 and stopped, betting the peace rally would cool over the weekend. The weekend just answered them. Crude fell again, Korea jumped almost 5 percent, Japan five and a half, and GIFT Nifty …
Scorecard | EP59 Graded 2.5 Of 5
Episode 59 graded 2 and a half out of 5. The big call landed. I said 23500 was the test and a hold above it opened 23600 to 23700, and that is exactly where Friday closed. What I got wrong was the cover. I said firmly they would buy back 25 to 30 thousand shorts, and they came up short of that. Full breakdown is on rupeecase.com. Hold that miss in your head, because today it is the whole story.
Friday's Tape | The Afternoon Squeeze
We came in expecting the global pop to fade, and instead the afternoon did the one thing crowded shorts dread. At one o'clock Nifty sat flat near 23350. Then it lifted, 300 points in two hours, and closed on the high, the day's low of 23313.90 already forgotten. Look where the strength sat. Banks led, the bank index ran almost 3 percent and the BSE bank gauge added 2.94. Financials topped the table up 3.15. Realty ran three and a half. Bajaj Finance alone added 5.56 percent, HDFC Bank 3.73, Axis 2.92. Only one sector finished red, and it was IT, down a tenth. The VIX crushed almost 6 percent t…
The Why | One Word, Peace
The why is one word. Peace. Trump's Iran settlement pulled the war premium out of crude, and over the weekend it did not stop. Brent is down another 4 percent this morning to 83.69, the US benchmark under 81, both rated very bearish. Lower oil is a direct gift to a country that imports most of its energy, a lower import bill, a stronger rupee, softer inflation, more room for the Reserve Bank later. The bond market agrees, the US 10 year yield slipped to 4.43. Asia took the baton overnight, Japan up 5.53 percent, Korea 4.70, Taiwan 2.68. GIFT Nifty sits at 23988 against Friday's 23622.90, a gap…
The Desks | The Only Seller Left Is Trapped
The official numbers are in, and they tell you why you buy dips and don't fade this. The foreign desk is still short 243623 index futures, having covered just 23000 on a 2 percent up day, only 33000 lighter than Monday's peak across the entire week. Underneath that, they are short the calls and long the puts, a fully hedged bear book. The proprietary desks, the smart money that flips first, are sitting long, long futures and long on both option sides, paid for the move. And the retail crowd is piled long with 1.8 lakh futures and a huge stack of sold puts, leaning bullish into the rally. So th…
The Board | A Ceiling At 24000, A Floor At 23400
Lay that 23950 open on the option board for Tuesday's expiry, and the structure says buy weakness. The big number is 24000. That strike holds 1 crore 5 lakh written calls, by far the heaviest block on the board, a round number ceiling sitting just above the open. Below us the old sellers are flipping to support, 23800 with 63 lakh and 23700 with 41 lakh, both now underneath price. And the floor is concrete, because the put writers planted themselves at 23400 with 93 lakh contracts, 23500 with 85 lakh, 23300 with 89 lakh. The whole chain reads with two puts written for every call, a bullish til…
The Plan | Buy Dips, Three Steps
The plan is a buy dips plan, three steps. One, buy the dips, do not chase the gap. Let the excited open settle, and buy pullbacks into 23850 down to 23750, right on top of the sellers who just flipped to support, with 24000 as the first target. Two, 24000 is where you take something off, because 1 crore of written calls does not step aside on first contact, so sell a piece of the rise there. Only a 15 to 30 minute hold above 24000 opens the next leg to 24200 and then 24500. Three, if the open fades harder, the real buy zone is 23650 down to 23500, sitting on that put writer floor, and that is …
Lesson And Risk | Don't Chase The Gap
The simpler trade is a warning about the gap, not a fade of it. The VIX is at 14.72, premium is already cheap, and a 360 point gap will fatten the call side and make chasing look smart. Do not buy that opening spike. The day before a weekly expiry usually belongs to the patient buyer of dips and the seller of premium once a range sets, not the breakout chaser. The honest risk is the one thing holding all of this up. This entire two day move rests on a peace settlement holding, and we have watched settlements break twice on this show. A fresh Iran headline and crude back above 90 unwinds it fas…
Highlights
- Nifty closed 23622.90 up 461.30 points plus 1.99 percent the whole move in the last 90 minutes
- Friday low 23313.90 high 23645.35 closed on the high
- Sensex ran 1695 points to 75527.95 plus 2.30 percent
- Banks led the bank index almost 3 percent BANKEX plus 2.94
- Financials plus 3.15 Realty three and a half percent
- Bajaj Finance plus 5.56 HDFC Bank plus 3.73 Axis plus 2.92
- IT lone red sector down 0.09 still the laggard
- VIX crushed 5.73 percent to 14.72
- Rupee confirmed at 95.08 its best day in months
- Brent down another 4 percent to 83.69 WTI under 81
- US 10 year yield 4.43 Gold 4328
- Asia Japan plus 5.53 Korea plus 4.70 Taiwan plus 2.68
- GIFT Nifty 23988 gap up roughly 360 points open near 23950
- FII short 243623 index futures covered just 23000 on a 2 percent up day
- FII short calls 209020 long puts 542612 a hedged bear book
- Pro long both sides Client long 180400 futures and short 712299 puts
- 24000 ceiling holds 1.05 crore written calls the heaviest block
- Put floor 23400 93 lakh 23300 89 lakh 23500 85 lakh
- Below price 23800 63 lakh 23700 41 lakh flipped to support
- PCR 1.74 two puts per call ATM straddle Tuesday around 280 points
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. On Friday this market did something it had not managed in the last 10 days. It tore straight through the resistance. Nifty closed at 23622, up 461 points, almost 2 percent, with the entire move packed into the last 90 minutes of Friday's close. The Sensex ran 1700 points to 75527. And the desk sitting short two and a half lakh contracts had one job that afternoon, cover while it was cheap. They bought back just 23000 contracts and stopped, betting the peace rally would cool over the weekend. The weekend answered it. Crude fell again, Korea jumped almost 5 percent, Japan 5.5 percent, and GIFT Nifty today morning is pointing at a second gap up of 360 points. My read today is simple and it has not changed in the last 3 sessions. You buy the dips. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 60. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So a quick scorecard before we proceed, guys. Episode 59 graded 3 out of 5. The big call landed. I said 23500 was the test and a hold above it would open doors to 23700 and 800, and that is exactly where Friday closed. What I got wrong was the cover. I said firmly they would buy back at least 25000 to 50000 in index futures, and they came up short of that, just 23000 was bought down. Full breakdown is available on rupeecase.com. Hold that miss in your head because today it is the whole story. Now Friday's tape, guys, because it sets the board of what is happening today morning. We came in expecting the global pop-up to fade and instead the afternoon did the one thing crowded shorts dread. At one o'clock Nifty sat flat near 23350, then it lifted 300 points in the next two hours and closed on the high, the day low of 23313 already forgotten. Look where the strength sat. Banks led, the bank index ran almost 3 percent and the BSE bank gauge added 2.94 percent. Financials topped the table up 3.15 percent. Realty ran three and a half percent. Bajaj Finance alone added 5.5, HDFC Bank 3.73, Axis 2.92. Only one sector fi…
Continue Beyond This Episode
Concepts you heard above are covered in detail in the RupeeCase Learn library, and the live strategies on the marketplace put the same systematic approach to work. Free, no sign-up.
- Learn library | 11 paths, 70+ free modules covering momentum, multi-asset, risk metrics, factor investing, behavioural finance and execution.
- Why rules beat gut feeling | the systematic case the show is built on.
- Momentum factor deep dive | the engine behind every RupeeCase equity strategy.
- RBI monetary policy | how the macro signals discussed every morning shape the next session.
- RupeeCase Strategy Marketplace | 17 systematic portfolios from RupeeCase Nifty 10 (entry-level) to AllCap Multi Asset (best Sharpe).
- Take the 2-min risk profile | get matched to a strategy that fits your tier and capital band.
- All episodes | every prior session of The Tanmay Edge.