Season 2, Episode 63 | 2026-06-18

Sensex Expiry, And The Fed Turned Hawkish. 77000 Decides

Four green days, a real breakout, and then the Fed turned hawkish overnight. On Thursday's episode of The Tanmay Edge we trade the collision.

Cold Open | A Real Breakout Meets A Hawkish Fed

A very good morning, guys. For four mornings I have come on here and told you this market wanted to go higher, and for four mornings it delivered. Yesterday it finally did the thing it had failed at five separate times, Nifty closed above 24000, the wall became a floor, and the Sensex pushed back over 77000. A clean breakout. And then, the moment we went home, the cloud we had been trading under broke. The United States Federal Reserve held rates but turned hawkish, its new projections now point to a rate hike this year instead of a cut, and Wall Street faded on it. So we walk into Sensex expi…

The Tape We Are Defending | Sensex 77155, Nifty First Close Over 24000

The Sensex closed 77155, up 347 points, its fourth straight green day, after tagging a high of 77219. Nifty added 96 to close at 24085, its first ever close above 24000 after five rejections, thirty two stocks up and eighteen down. The leadership was broad and cyclical, Trent up 7 percent, Bharat Electronics up 3, the IT pack with Infosys, Tech Mahindra and TCS, plus Tata Steel, Bharti, Sun Pharma, Titan and State Bank all green. The drag was the private financials, Axis, Kotak and the Bajaj twins all in the red. Metals, defence, IT and energy leading, the lenders holding it back, hold that sh…

The Overhang | Fed Held But Turned Hawkish, India Shrugs

Overnight the Federal Reserve held its rate, that part was expected. The surprise was the tone. The dot plot, the officials' own forecast of where rates go, shifted up to point at a hike this year, and the language about future cuts was stripped out. This was Chair Warsh's first meeting and he set a hawkish marker. Wall Street faded on it, the S&P and the Nasdaq both red, the two year yield up, the dollar firmer. And yet here is the first tell, our own market is shrugging it off. GIFT Nifty is trading near 24057, barely 28 points soft, pointing to a flat open and not a gap down, the morning af…

Reading The Sensex 0DTE Chain | 77000 Floor, 77500 Roof

The Sensex settles this afternoon, so let me read you the chain, the open interest, where the big money parked. Two things happened yesterday. First, the put writers, the people betting we hold, piled in at 77000, they added almost 17 and a half lakh contracts at that one strike in a single day, taking it past 21 lakh, the single heaviest block near the money. That is your floor, and it was built yesterday, not last week, so it is fresh conviction money. Below it, 76500 and 76000 hold the next put walls, each above 21 lakh. Second, the call writers stacked their heaviest fresh calls at 77500, …

The Size Of The Move | Straddle 470, Both Bands Agree

Now the size of today's move, two ways, because they should agree. The at the money straddle, the price of buying both the call and the put at 77200, is about 470 points, the market's own quote for the day's range. Lay it on the close and the straddle implied band runs 76690 to 77625. The second method, the one standard deviation range, takes that straddle and multiplies by 1.25 for about 585 points, a band of 76570 to 77740. Two methods, two bands that bracket each other, and notice the floors of both land right on the 77000 and 76500 put support, and the roofs land on the 77500 call wall. Th…

The Gamma Switch | 77300 Is The Number Today

Here is the piece most people skip, the gamma, which tells you how the day moves, not just where. When the big dealers' gamma is negative they amplify the tape, they sell into weakness and buy into strength, so moves feed on themselves and the day whips. When it is positive they pin the tape and the swings die. On the Sensex that gamma flips from negative to positive right around 77250 to 77300, call it the switch. We closed at 77155, below the switch, in amplified territory. That is important, on a 0DTE expiry below the switch a push lower can run, it does not gently pin. Only if we reclaim 7…

Positioning | Foreign Short Versus Retail Long Across 77000

Underneath all of it, the positioning is the twist. The foreign desk bought cash for a third straight day, a small 179 crore, and the domestic funds bought 1703 crore. But in the index futures, the foreign desk is still net short about 2.25 lakh contracts, they trimmed it by barely 5000 yesterday. A market made a fresh breakout while its biggest player stayed short. If 77000 holds today, that short is squeeze fuel, they get forced to buy. If the hawkish Fed cracks 77000, the short was right all along. The retail crowd is net long about 1.57 lakh contracts, the proprietary desks are flat, so th…

The Plan And The Grade | Respect 77000, Reclaim 77300, Size Down

On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77000, the fresh money floor, the bias stays up, and a reclaim of 77250 to 77300 flips the dealers to pinning and opens a run at 77500. Lose 77000, and because we are in amplified territory, there is an air pocket straight down to 76500. On the Nifty we are above the switch, so 24000 has flipped from ceiling to support, buy the dip toward 24000, the straddle frames 23790 to 24380, take something off into 24200, and the long is wrong only below 23950. Size everything down, it is expiry and the Fed just turned.…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

It's 8:30 AM, guys. Four mornings I have come on here and told you this market wanted to go higher, and for four mornings it had delivered perfectly. Yesterday it finally did the thing it had failed at five separate times. Nifty closed above 24,000, the resistance became the support, and the Sensex pushed back over 77,000. A clean breakout. And then, the moment we went home, the cloud we had been trading under broke. The United States Federal Reserve held rates but turned hawkish, its new projections now point to a rate hike this year instead of a cut, and Wall Street faded on it. So we walk into Sensex expiry holding a fresh breakout in one hand and a hawkish Fed in the other. Today, the option chain tells us which one wins. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 63. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Let's start with the tape we are defending. The Sensex closed at 77,155, up 347 points, its fourth straight green day, after tagging a high of 77,219. Nifty added 96 to close at 24,085, its first ever close above 24,000 after five rejections, 32 stocks up and 18 down. The leadership was broad and cyclical. Trent was up 7%, Bharat Electronics up 3%, the IT pack with Infosys, Tech Mahindra and TCS, plus Tata Steel, Bharti, Sun Pharma, Titan, State Bank all green. The drag was the private financials, Axis, Kotak and the Bajaj twins all in red. Metals, defence, IT and energy leading, the lenders holding it back. Hold that shape in your mind. Now the overhang. Overnight the Federal Reserve held its rate, that part was expected. The surprise was the tone. The dot plot, which is the officials' own forecast of where rates go, shifted up to point at a hike this year, and the language about future cuts was stripped out. This was the Chair's first meeting, and he set a hawkish marker. Wall Street faded on it, the S&P and the Nasdaq both ended in red, the two-year government yield is up, the dollar is firmer. And yet here is the first tell, our own market is shrugging…

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