Season 2, Episode 66 | 2026-06-23
Weekly Expiry: 24000 Floor, 24200 Ceiling, Max Pain 24100
Monday's gap-up did half its job. The Nifty held the 24,000 floor, closed up 0.37% at 24,102.90, and the IT wreck from Friday reversed clean | Tech Mahindra, Infosys and pharma led the bounce. But it stalled cold at 24,200 and faded.
Cold Open | Yesterday's Gap Up Held The Floor But Stalled At The Ceiling
A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the gap up did exactly half of what it promised. It held. The Nifty opened higher near 24,107, never once went back to test 24,000, and closed green at 24,103. The floor was never in question. But look at the other half. It ran up to 24,168, got within thirty points of 24,200, and then it just stopped. Faded into the close. The ceiling the sellers built on Friday held on its very first test. So here we are on Tuesday, weekly expiry day, and the market has boxed itself into the tightest room of the week. A 24,000 floor below, a 24,200 ceiling above, and the …
The Tape | A 95 Point Range And A Clean Sector Rotation
The Nifty closed Monday at 24,103, up 90 points, a third of a percent, and it did it inside a 95 point range all session, opening 24,107, high 24,168, low 24,073. The Sensex added 291 to close at 77,094. The sector story flipped from Friday in the best possible way. The technology stocks that got hammered on the Accenture scare bounced straight back, Tech Mahindra up 1.7 percent, Infosys up 1.3, the IT pocket green. Pharma led, Sun Pharma up 1.4. Reliance recovered 1.3 after its sell the news Friday. Banks were firm. What dragged instead was the consumption corner, Asian Paints down over 2 per…
The Flows | Foreigners Sold Cash, Domestics Held The Tape
Under the surface, one thing to flag. On Monday the foreign desk went back to selling our cash market, a net 636 crore on the combined tally, and it was the domestic funds, buying just over 1,000 crore, that held the tape up. Remember Friday the roles were reversed, foreigners bought, domestics sold. Two sessions, two opposite prints. That flip flop is its own signal. Nobody here has conviction.
Positioning | Pros Flipped Long, Foreigners Trimmed Shorts
In the usual order, the professionals first, then the foreigners, then the retail crowd, because today the order tells a small story. The professional desk just flipped. In index futures the pros went from a small net short on Friday to a small net long on Monday, about 1,200 contracts, plus they are carrying long calls. Small, but it is the first desk to lean up. The foreign desk is still heavily net short the index, about 2.23 lakh contracts, but here is the change, they covered a little, about 3,600 of those shorts on Monday, while sitting on a big book of long puts and short calls. Still h…
The Map | Two 13 Lakh Walls And A Max Pain At 24100
On expiry day the map is the whole game. The open interest has stacked into two giant walls, and they are almost mirror images. Below us, at 24,000, sits the single biggest line on the board, just over 13.1 lakh put contracts. That is the floor, and it is the heaviest floor of the week. Above us, at 24,200, sits an almost identical call wall, about 13.3 lakh contracts, the ceiling, and the heaviest of the week. In between, at 24,100, calls and puts are evenly matched, about 11 lakh each. So picture it cleanly, a 13 lakh floor at 24,000, a 13 lakh ceiling at 24,200, and the spot opening right i…
The Switch And The Size Of The Day | 24150 Flip, A 129 Point Move
There is a switch inside the room. Around 24,150 the character of the market changes. Above 24,150, the desks that sold these options are forced to trade in a way that dampens the move, it pins, it drifts quietly toward the 24,200 ceiling. Below roughly 24,100, the same forces flip and start amplifying moves, pulling the tape toward the 24,000 floor. We open at 24,090, just under that switch. That is the line to watch all morning. And the size of the day, because the market quotes it. The at the money straddle is about 129 points. That is the market's own one standard deviation move for today,…
Education, 0DTE Theta | Right On Direction, Still Lose On The Clock
Here is the thing about expiry day that traps people. That premium is cheap, and cheap premium is tempting to buy. But on expiry day the option you buy this morning has a deadline of 3:30 this afternoon. Every hour, time decay eats it, and on the last day that decay is brutal. You can be right on direction, buy a call, watch the index tick up, and still lose money, because the premium bled to zero faster than the spot could climb. The walls tell you where the market wants to settle. The clock tells you it has to get there today, or the option buyer goes home with nothing. On expiry, time is th…
The Plan And The Grade | Trade The Edges, Buy The 24000 Dip
Globally there is no help and no real threat. America's tech heavy index slipped about one and a third percent overnight, Asia is mixed to soft. The hot Asian tailwind that gapped us up on Monday is gone, that is why GIFT Nifty is flat. Crude is still cheap, Brent under 78 dollars, the rupee softened a touch to 94.7. Nothing forces a breakout. The plan, discipline over ambition. Base case, a pin, a coil between 24,000 and 24,200 settling near 24,100. Trade the edges, not the middle. Reclaim and hold 24,150 and let it drift toward 24,200, but respect that ceiling. Lose 24,100 and the slide towa…
Highlights
- Nifty 24102.90 plus 89.80 plus 0.37 percent held 24000 stalled at 24200
- Monday range just 95 points open 24107 high 24168 low 24073
- Sensex 77094.07 plus 291 plus 0.38 percent
- IT bounced back TECHM plus 1.7 INFY plus 1.3 the IT pocket green
- Pharma led SUNPHARMA plus 1.4 RELIANCE plus 1.3 banks up about half a percent
- Consumption dragged ASIANPAINT minus 2 plus TITAN minus 1.2 ITC and HUL soft
- Cash flows FII minus 636 crore DII plus 1036 crore a flip from Friday
- Pro index futures plus 1193 flipped net long from minus 8373 plus long calls 75810
- FII index futures net short 222784 covered about 3639 versus Friday
- FII long puts 646742 short calls 295482 hedged bearish
- Client net long futures 154022 short puts 698721 crowd bullish
- Floor 24000 put OI 13.15M the single biggest line on the board
- Ceiling 24200 call OI 13.35M the heaviest of the week
- ATM 24100 balanced CE 11.12M PE 10.83M PCR 0.872
- Max pain 24100 exactly where we open
- Gamma flip about 24150 pins above amplifies below
- ATM straddle about 129 1SD band 23975 to 24230 buffer 23940 to 24265
- India VIX about 13 IV about 10.2 percent theta and IV crush regime
- GIFT Nifty 24086.50 minus 13 flat open Nasdaq minus 1.32 o n Asia red
- Cushion Brent 77.71 WTI 73.80 Gold 4141.65 USD INR 94.68
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the gap up did exactly half of what it promised. It held. The Nifty opened higher near 24,107, never once went back to test 24,000, and closed green at 24,103. The floor was never in question. But look at the other half. It ran up to 24,168, got within 30 points of 24,200, and then it just stopped. Faded into the close. The resistance the sellers built on Friday held on its very first test. So here we are on Tuesday, today is weekly expiry, and the market has boxed itself into the tightest room of the week, a 24,000 floor below, a 24,200 resistance above, and the spot sitting almost dead in the middle. This morning GIFT Nifty is flat, pointing to an open of 24,090, basically where we closed. No gap to trade, no momentum to chase, just resistance and a clock. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 66. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Let me set the board, guys. The Nifty closed Monday at 24,103, up 90 points, one third of a percent, and it did it inside a 95 point range all session, opening 24,107, high 24,168, low 24,073. The Sensex added 291 points to close at 77,094. And the sector story flipped from Friday in the best possible way. The technology stocks that got hammered on the Accenture scare bounced straight back, Tech Mahindra up 1.7 percent, Infosys up 1.3 percent, the IT pocket was green. Pharma led, Sun Pharma was up 1.4 percent. Reliance recovered 1.3 percent after its sell the news on Friday. The banks were firm, the banking index up almost half a percent. What dragged instead was the consumption corner, Asian Paints down over 2 percent, Titan down 1.2 percent, ITC and Hindustan Unilever soft. So leadership rotated, IT and financials carried, consumption sat it out, a healthy boring range bound day, exactly the coil the numbers drew on Friday. Under the surface, one thing to flag, guys. Yesterday the FII desk went back to selling our cash market, a net 636 crore on the combined tally, and it was the domes…
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