Season 2, Episode 68 | 2026-06-25

24000 Cracked, Reclaimed, Re-Floored. Now Sensex Expiry

Tuesday the floor cracked. Wednesday Nifty reclaimed 24,000 (24,021.65, +0.83%) and Sensex 76,991.22 (+1.04%) | but on a DII rescue while FIIs sold cash and deepened their futures short.

Cold Open | The Floor They Lost, The Writers Rebuilt

A very good morning, guys. Two days ago the support cracked. Tuesday, on expiry, Nifty lost 24,000 and Sensex broke 76,200, and I sat here and told you the broken floor was now the resistance. Sell the rallies. Then Wednesday happened. And the market did the one thing I said would flip it. It reclaimed the level and held. Nifty closed 24,021. Sensex closed 76,991. But here is the part nobody on your feed is telling you. While the price was climbing back through 24,000, the option writers were quietly rebuilding the exact floor they lost on Tuesday. The data shows you who actually believes this…

The Reclaim | A Gap Down That Found A Buyer And Never Looked Back

Start with the close, because the close tells the story. Nifty 24,021.65, up 197 points, plus 0.83 percent. It opened gap down at 23,795, below Tuesday's close, dropped to 23,789, and then spent the entire session climbing. It closed near the high of the day. That is not a nervous bounce. That is a session that found a buyer at 23,789 and never looked back. Sensex did the same thing, 76,991.22, up 790 points, plus 1.04 percent. It reclaimed almost everything Tuesday took. Thirty of the Nifty 50 stocks closed green, and IT led the rebound, the same sector that got routed on Tuesday's Korea chip…

The Flows | A Domestic Rescue While The Foreigners Kept Leaving

But who did the buying? Because it was not the foreigners. Here are the official numbers. On Wednesday the FIIs sold 1,541 crore of cash on the NSE while the DIIs bought 2,715 crore. On the combined exchanges it is even starker, FIIs minus 1,843 crore, DIIs plus 3,637 crore. So the rebound that reclaimed 24,000 was a domestic rescue. The locals bought the dip the foreigners were handing them. That is the second day in a row the DII desk has carried this market. And the foreigners did not just sell cash. Their net short in index futures went from 2,28,561 contracts on Tuesday to 2,29,053 on Wed…

The Education | The Writers Rebuilt The Floor They Lost

Now the number that changed my mind about the bounce. On Tuesday, when 24,000 cracked, the 30 June Nifty chain had a put call ratio of 0.78. Call heavy. Bearish. The biggest open interest sat on the call side at 24,000, the broken floor as a wall of overhead supply. That is what I built Tuesday's call on. By Wednesday's close, that same chain had a PCR of 1.21. It flipped. The single biggest open interest in the entire chain is now the 24,000 put, 1.21 crore contracts sitting there as a floor. Put writers added 44 lakh contracts at 23,900, another 29 lakh at 23,800, and stacked deep tail puts …

Sensex Expiry | Gapping Up Straight Into The Wall

Now today. Sensex weekly expiry, zero days to go. The GIFT Nifty is pointing to a gap up of about 83 points near 24,106, which means Sensex opens near 77,250, and that is the problem, because it opens us straight into the wall. Overhead, the call writers are stacked at 77,000, then 77,500, then a heavy 78,000. That 77,000 to 77,500 band is the immediate battle. Underneath, put support sits at 76,500, then 76,000, then the real floor at 75,000. Max pain is around 76,500. India VIX has cooled to 13 from Tuesday's 14, so volatility is bleeding out. On a zero day expiry, falling volatility plus a …

The Macro | A Two Event Day With Core PCE Tonight

One more layer, because today is a two event day. After our market closes the United States releases its Core PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation number, plus durable goods and the final first quarter GDP. A hot PCE keeps the hawkish Fed exactly where it is. And you have seen what that has already done. Gold cracked below 4,010 to a seven month low, silver fell almost 5 percent, crude dropped over 4 percent to around 70 dollars, even Bitcoin is at a two week low. A strong dollar is vacuuming money out of everything at once. For us the crude crack is the silver lining, because 70 dollar oil is a …

The Plan | Respect The Pin, Watch 77000

So here is how I am reading the day. Above 77,000 and holding, the reclaim extends toward 77,300 and 77,500, and that is where the call writers defend. Lose 76,500 and the gap up was a relief rally, we fade back toward 76,000. Inside 76,500 to 77,000 it is an expiry pin, and on a zero day expiry you respect the pin. You do not carry a naked position into a falling volatility expiry with a US inflation print waiting on the other side. The floor that cracked on Tuesday got reclaimed on Wednesday, and the writers rebuilt it underneath. Today the question is simple. Does the gap up confirm the rec…

Sign Off | A Long Weekend Ahead

That is the tape behind the chart you got earlier. If you like this podcast, give it a rating, I am waiting for your reviews. Listen live and first on rupeecase.com, where it streams first, and also on Apple and Spotify. Subscribe so you do not miss a single session on every trading day. Remember, Friday the 26th is a market holiday, so the next session is Monday the 29th. This was Tanmay, signing off. See you all again after a long weekend, on Monday.

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. Two days ago, the support cracked. Tuesday, on expiry, Nifty lost 24,000 and Sensex broke 76,200, and I sat here and told you the broken floor, the support, was now the resistance. And sell the rallies. And then Wednesday happened. And the market did the one thing I said would flip it: it reclaimed the level and held it. Nifty closed at 24,021. Sensex closed at 76,991. But here's the part nobody on your feed is telling you right now, while the price was climbing back through 24,000, the option writers were quietly rebuilding the exact support they lost on Tuesday. The data shows you who actually believes this bounce. Today's Sensex expiry. Let me show you how the tape has built the chart. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 68. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So, starting with the close, because the close tells you the story. Nifty at 24,021, up 197 points, plus 0.83%. It opened gap-down at 23,795, below Tuesday's close, and exactly the support level which we told you yesterday. Dropped to 23,789, and then spent the entire session climbing. It closed near the day's high. That is not a nervous bounce. That is a session that found a buyer at 23,800 and never looked back. Sensex did the same thing, 76,991, closing up 790 points, plus 1.04%. It reclaimed almost everything it gave back on Tuesday. 30 of the Nifty 50 stocks closed in green. IT led the rebound, the same sector that got routed on Tuesday's Korea chip rout was the one that pulled us back. But, and this is the whole game, who did the buying? Because it was not the FIIs. So here are the official numbers. On Wednesday, the FIIs sold almost 1,843 crores while DIIs bought 3,637 crores. So the rebound that reclaimed 24,000 was a domestic rescue. The locals bought the dip the FIIs were handing them. That is the second day in a row that DIIs have carried the market on its way back. And the FIIs didn't just sell cash. Look at the futures, guys. The FII net short in index f…

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