Season 2, Episode 69 | 2026-06-29
24,000 Support, 24,200 Resistance. The Pros Just Bought Volatility. Monthly Expiry Tomorrow
Thursday closed green | and gave back 205 points from its high. The rallyhit resistance and got sold back to flat. Then three days shut for Muharram.
Cold Open | Green Was A Costume
Thursday closed green. And green is a costume. Nifty finished up 34 points, Sensex up 109. On paper, a quiet up day before the long weekend. But pull the chart and look at where they had been. Nifty touched 24,261 and gave back more than 200 points into the close. Sensex ran all the way to 77,803 and surrendered 700 of them. The index did not drift higher and rest. It rallied, hit resistance, and got sold back to flat. And underneath that flat close, the professional desks did something they had not done all week. They went and bought volatility. While the crowd sold insurance into the calm, t…
The Fade | A Long Upper Wick And A Split Tape
Start with the tape. Nifty 24,056, Sensex 77,100, both up about a tenth of a percent. But the story is not the close. It is the distance between the close and the high. Nifty printed 24,261 and finished 205 points below it. That long upper wick is the signature of a session that ran into a seller and could not get past him. Under the surface it was a split tape. The autos carried the day, the auto index up 2.25 percent, M and M up almost 4, Maruti up 3.7, Indigo up 4.7. But IT was down, metals were the worst sector, and Power Grid lost over 2 percent. Twenty five Nifty stocks up, 25 down, dead…
The Flows | A Domestic Bid Under A Foreign Cap
Who is moving this market? NSE and NSDL numbers, nobody else. For the first time in a stretch, the foreigners bought, net positive on cash, about 384 crore provisional, near 1,800 crore on the NSDL custodial route. Small, but a reversal. The domestic institutions bought 5,748 crore, the second enormous DII day in a row. This market is carried on the back of domestic money. In the futures, the foreigners lightened up too. Their net index short came down from 2,29,053 contracts to 2,23,809, covering about 5,000. But hold the scale. They are still short 2,23,809. Eased off the gas, did not turn t…
The Options Book | Pros Long Both Wings, Crowd Short Puts
The real tell on Thursday was in the options book, the index option open interest by participant, in the order that matters. Pros first, then foreigners, then the client. The Pro desk. On the call side, net long 1,14,399 contracts. On the put side, and this is the number that changed, net long 1,14,140. The day before the pros were net short puts by 39,125. In one session they swung more than 1,50,000 contracts to the long put side. So the pros are now long calls and long puts. When a desk is long both wings, it is not a directional bet. It is buying volatility, paying for a move in either dir…
The Levels | A Clean Range And A Cheap Volatility
Now the 30 June monthly chain at Thursday's official close. Support first. The 24,000 put is the single biggest position on the entire board, 1.25 crore contracts, and it grew. That is the level that held every minute of Thursday, the low was 24,039, and it is still the heaviest line out there. That is your support, and it is where you buy. Resistance. The 24,200 call is the biggest open interest near the money, 1.03 crore contracts, and the writers added 40 lakh fresh contracts there into Thursday's fade. On the exact day the index poked to 24,261 and got sold, they stacked the 24,200 call. M…
The Education | Reading The Volatility Cycle
Write this one down. Most people read the option chain for direction, where is support, where is resistance. But the chain also tells you where volatility is going, if you read who is on each side. When the pros go long both wings, they are saying the move is underpriced. They do not care which way, they think it moves. When the crowd sells puts into that, they are saying it stays calm. Both cannot be right, and the tiebreaker is the price of volatility itself. When implied vol is at a multi week low, the option is cheap, the downside is the small premium, the upside if volatility expands is m…
The Macro | A Wobbling Wall Street As The Fuse
One more layer, because we walk in cold off a long weekend. Wall Street closed lower Friday, its fifth straight down day, the big tech and AI names wobbling. Europe was red, Asia this morning is split, and the gift nifty is basically flat. No global shove at the open, but a wobbling Wall Street is exactly the kind of fuse that lights the volatility the pros just bought. The one clean tailwind is crude, near 70 dollars and still close to multi month lows, the import relief India wants. The rupee is steady at 94.40. A friendly crude backdrop, a soft global tape, and a market coiled at the lows o…
The Plan | Buy The Dip, Own The Optionality
Here is how I am playing it, and the bias has not changed. Buy the dips. Support is 24,000, where the put writers are sitting, where Thursday's low held, and that is where you buy, with a stop on a closing break below it. The pin is 24,100. Resistance is 24,200, and the way the writers defend it tells you whether the next leg is up. Break and hold above 24,200 and the short calls have to cover, and that is the squeeze toward 24,300, then 24,500. Lose 24,000 on a closing basis and the dip buy is wrong, the air pocket opens to 23,800, and that is where your long puts earn their keep. But the str…
Highlights
- Nifty 24056.00 plus 34 plus 0.14 percent
- Sensex 77100.47 plus 109 plus 0.14 percent
- Nifty high 24261 closed 205 below it a long upper wick
- Sensex high 77803 surrendered 700 into the close
- Auto index plus 2.25 percent Maruti plus 3.7 Indigo plus 4.7
- IT down metals worst Power Grid minus 2 percent breadth 25 up 25 down
- FII cash plus 384 crore provisional near 1800 crore NSDL custodial
- DII plus 5748 crore the second big day in a row
- FII index futures short 229053 to 223809 covered about 5000
- For the year FII out about 66000 crore DII in about 92900 crore
- Pro calls net long 114399 puts net long 114140 from short 39125
- Pros long both wings buying volatility into the monthly expiry
- FII short calls 259912 covered 31000 long puts 596646 trimmed
- Client long calls 139519 short puts 730899 deepened almost 150000
- Support 24000 put 1.25 crore the biggest line low held 24039
- Resistance 24200 call 1.03 crore writers added 40 lakh fresh
- Max pain 24100 range support 24000 pin 24100 resistance 24200
- India VIX 13.05 a multi week low front ATM IV near 9 percent
- Term structure 9 then 10.8 then 12 near term vol cheapest
- ATM straddle about 225 one SD about 275 band 23780 to 24330
Transcript Excerpt
Very good morning, guys. Thursday closed green. Nifty finished up 34 points on Thursday, Sensex was up by 109 points. On paper, a quiet day before the long weekend. But pull the chart and look at where they had been. Nifty touched a high of 24,261 and then gave back almost 200 points into the close. And Sensex was a completely different story. The expiry was crazy, ran all the way till 77,803 and surrendered back 700 points. The index didn't drift higher and rest. It rallied, hit that resistance, and got sold back to flat. And underneath that flat close, the pros did something they hadn't done all week. They went and bought volatility. While the crowd was selling insurance into the calm, the pros were quietly buying both sides of the move. Today we have come back from a three day weekend into the eve of the monthly expiry that is going to happen tomorrow, with the lowest volatility reading in weeks and the smart money positioned for it to wake up. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 69. I am Tanmay Kurthakoti. Let's go. Starting with the tape. Nifty 24,056, Sensex 77,100, both up about a tenth of a percent. But the story isn't the close. It's the distance between the close and the high that happened on Thursday. Nifty printed 24,261 and finished 205 points below it. That long upper wick is the signature of a session that ran into a seller and couldn't get past him. Under the surface, it was a split tape. The autos carried the day. The auto index up 2.25 percent, M&M up almost 4 percent, Maruti 3.7 percent, Indigo up 4.7 percent. But IT was down, metals were the worst sector, and Power Grid lost almost 2 percent. 25 Nifty stocks up, 25 down. Dead even breadth on a green headline. A rally with no broad participation and a rejected high is resistance being defended in real time. And then Friday the market was shut due to Muharram, so that rejected high has been sitting there untouched for three days. Today we find out whether anyone wants to attack it…
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