Season 2, Episode 72 | 2026-07-02

A Gap-Up Into Expiry Day: 24,000 Is the Floor, and the Jobs Report Waits for Tonight

The Nifty reclaimed 24,000 at 24,006 | and this morning GIFT is pointing to a gap-up open near 24,150, a clear 150 points above the level that broke last week.

Cold Open | The Reclaim And A Two Catalyst Day

Yesterday the market did the one thing everybody had stopped expecting. It climbed back above 24,000 and closed there at 24,006. The level that broke last week is back under our feet, and this morning we are set to open a clear 150 points higher. But do not get comfortable. Today two big events land on the very same day. One during our session, one after we close. And when two catalysts stack on top of each other, the market stops trusting the calm.

Global And GIFT | Tech Soft, Rupee Weak On 95, A Homegrown Gap Up

Overnight the US gave us nothing. The Nasdaq slipped again, down about 0.7 percent, a second soft session for tech, the S&P eased, and only Dow futures held barely green. The tech tailwind has gone quiet two days running, and that matters because our own IT pack is still the weakest link. Asia is split, Hong Kong firm but Japan, Taiwan and Korea heavy, Korea off nearly 3 percent. Crude keeps drifting lower, Brent near 71 dollars and US crude closer to 68 as the US and Iran keep talking. Gold eased to about 4,050. Here is the number to watch, the rupee. Yesterday it weakened to about 95 and a q…

Two Events One Day | Sensex Expiry By Day, US Jobs By Night

The first event is here at home. Today is Sensex weekly expiry. Those weekly bets settle this afternoon, and that pulls the index toward the levels where the most money is parked. The second is bigger, and it lands after we have gone home. Tonight the United States releases its monthly jobs report, a day early this month because Friday is a US holiday. That number sets what the US central bank does on interest rates, and it moves the dollar, our rupee, and foreign flows into India. It drops after our close, so our session cannot see it. It can only brace for it. An expiry pulling us sideways b…

The Money | Pros Long And Hedged, Foreigners Short, The Crowd Exposed

The professional desks came into July leaning up, and yesterday they pressed that bet harder. They are net long the market through futures and piled on a big stack of fresh upside bets. But the tell is that they kept their downside protection on at the same time. Long the market, and insured. That is a desk that wants higher but refuses to be caught naked into a jobs number. The foreign desks are still on the other side. They pushed their bet against the index a little deeper, now short about 2.6 lakh contracts, and stayed net sellers of stock. Leaning down, still defensive. And the everyday c…

The Levels | 24,000 The Floor, 24,200 The Cap, Sensex 77,000 The Line

Start with the Nifty. 24,000 has flipped its job, last week the resistance overhead, now the floor, and after the gap up a floor we open 150 points above. So the line that matters is 24,200, the next big cluster of selling bets, and we open right underneath it. A clean push through 24,200 needs a friendly jobs number, so that is a Friday story, not a today story. A pullback toward 24,100 or even 24,050 is a level to lean on, not to fear, as long as 24,000 holds on a close. Only a close back below 24,000 puts 23,900 and 23,800 back in play. Now the Sensex, because it is expiry day, and the gap …

The Education | Event Premium

The tape looks sleepy. The daily moves are tiny, the fear gauge is near its lows. Everything says calm. And yet the price of protection, buying an option to cover your downside, is holding firm. It is not as cheap as a sleepy tape says it should be. Why. Because of tonight's jobs number. When a known event sits on the calendar, the price of insurance stays propped up right until that event, because nobody can tell you which way it breaks. You are not paying for what the market is doing today, you are paying for what it might do the second that number prints. Then, the morning after, the myster…

The Plan | Buy Dips, Respect The Range, Let Tonight Decide

We are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the discipline, I am a buyer of dips, not a chaser of the gap. I do not buy the first green candle 150 points higher, I let the open settle and add on pullbacks toward 24,100 or even 24,050, with 24,000 as my line in the sand. 24,200 is the cap. On the Sensex the whole game is one number, hold 77,000 and the expiry drifts toward 77,500, lose it and 76,500 is the net. And I am trading lighter, because the real move is not today, it is tonight's jobs number, and it plays out tomorrow. Today i…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the market did the one thing everybody had stopped expecting. It climbed back above 24,000 and closed there, at 24,006. The level that broke last week is back under our feet and this morning we are set to open a clear 150 points higher, on Sensex expiry. But don't get comfortable yet, because today two big events land on the very same day. One during our session, one after our close. And when two catalysts stack on top of each other, the market stops trusting the calm. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to Tanmay Kurtkoti, Season 2, Episode 72. Let's go. Starting with outside India. Overnight the US gave us nothing. The Nasdaq slipped again, down about 0.7 percent a second soft session for tech. The S&P eased a touch, and only Dow futures held barely green. So the tech tailwind has gone quiet two days running, and that matters, because our own IT pack is still the weakest link in the market. Asia this morning is split Hong Kong firm, but Japan, Taiwan and Korea are all heavy, with Korea off nearly 3 percent. Crude keeps drifting lower. Brent is near 71 dollars, the US crude close to 68, as the US and Iran keep talking. Cheap oil stays a quiet tailwind for us. Gold eased overnight, back to about 4,050. But here's the number I want you watching: the rupee. Yesterday it weakened it slid to about 95 and a quarter against the dollar, its softest close in a while, and it's now sitting right on top of that 95 line. A weak rupee is one of the things that keeps foreign money nervous, and a push toward 95 and a half, right into tonight's jobs number, is exactly what nobody wants to see. And now the number that sets up your whole morning: GIFT Nifty is up 140 points, trading around 24,183. Strip out the premium and that points to the Nifty opening near 24,150, a gap-up of roughly 140 points. So today we don't just hold above 24,000 we open a clear 140 points above it, right underneath the 24,200 resistance. And notice what that mean…

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