Season 2, Episode 106 | 2026-08-19
The Morning Korea Broke | A Fourth Record Naked Put Book Meets The Pros' First Bearish Lean, Oil Prints 92, And The Battlefield Is 24,000 To 24,300
This morning, Korea broke. The KOSPI, up twelve percent in a five session melt-up, gave back 5.4 percent in a single morning. The Nikkei fell 2.4 percent, sixteen hundred points off its record. The Nasdaq closed down 1.
Verdict: 4/5 | 4 HIT, 1 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | The Morning Korea Broke
Today the KOSPI is down 5.36 percent this morning. The five days the market went up, crashed in one session. The Nikkei is down 2.37 percent, minus 600 points off its record. The Nasdaq yesterday closed 1.33 percent and the S&P was down 0.69 percent. Brent is trading at 92.04, still climbing through the fired trigger, and the rupee is trading at 95.68, the weakest close ever. And our own tape walks in six days down continuously. This is the global morning.
The Tape | Six Straight Lower Closes
Tuesday's expiry settled at 24,155, 132 points lower, 0.55 percent, at the low of the day. A gap down open at 24,223, a high of 24,269, no recovery throughout the session, and the session printed the low. The fall has started from 24,472 and now we are at 24,155, minus 317 points in six sessions. The staircase is now a trend. The Sensex closed at 77,235, minus almost 500 points, also at its low. Breadth was 10 up and 40 down. The settlement happened 195 points below the max pain. A sliding market beats a static magnet every time. The only green pocket was defensives, 1.29 percent positive, IT …
The Two Books That Diverged | The Crowd
The clients hit a fourth consecutive record in naked put selling. They started with 5.74 lakh, went to 6.08, then 6.61, and yesterday closed at 6.97 lakh of naked put writing. They sold almost 37,000 more puts while the third record was burning at settlement, plus 1.66 lakh fresh calls bought. So clients are maximum bullish both directions. Six red days, they are facing the pain on the puts and shifting it lower and lower, and calls they are buying more and more.
The Pros | First Directional Lean Of The Month
The proprietary desks dumped the call leg. They had long puts and long calls that they had carried, now they are carrying net short calls of 0.71 lakh. Their first directional bearish lean of the month. All the cycle they traded volatility both sides. Yesterday they picked one side, the downward, and today we see whether they book it. When the crowd shows no fear and the pros show their first sign of picking a direction, the second group is the one we lean into.
The FIIs | Hedge Growing, Cash Buying
Puts, they are now long 6.11 lakh, first time over 6 lakh, and yesterday they bought almost 1.09 lakh in one day. Along with that, index futures short of almost 1.94 lakh, a new cycle high. But in the cash market they are buying, and in stock futures they are buying. In cash they bought 1,652 crore, and the DIIs bought 2,579 crore. In index options they bought 24,163, washed out with the expiry. Four weeks, the same picture. Own the stock, hedge it in the insurance, that is what the trend is showing.
The Board | Max Pain Above Spot
Max pain still stands at 24,300 to 350, 145 to 150 points above the spot. The magnet argues bounce for once, but we are not seeing that bounce happening yet. The call writers pressed again, 1.1 crore at 24,200 and 24,300 in one day. Almost 54.5 lakh added at 24,200, almost 69 lakh at 24,300, 80 lakh at 24,400, and 24,500 at 1.21 crore. So resistance across the board from 24,200 to 24,500. Support, the base case is 24,000 where 1.14 crore puts have been written, and between that it is thin air. PCR at 0.82 showing a weak expiry, the weekly straddle 217 to 270, front IV just below 10, and the mo…
The Plan | Smallest Size, Let The Level Prove Itself
After two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level proves itself. The market has been cracking down, but 24,000 is the level I am looking for, so 24,000 to 24,350 is the zone. The bounce case is around 150 to 160 points, so I keep my analysis centred around 24,300 to 24,250. The break case is Korea and oil, and oil is already at 92. The pros are short calls, so if we see unwinding on the client side we could see the bounce. Until then the market is still bearish and volatility is rising. And tomorrow is the Sensex expiry, so sell the stra…
Highlights
- KOSPI down 5.36 percent the five day rally crashed in one session
- Nikkei down 2.37 percent minus 600 points off its record
- Brent 92.04 still climbing rupee 95.68 the weakest close ever
- Expiry settled 24,155 down 132 at the low of the day
- Sixth straight lower close minus 317 points in six sessions from 24,472
- Sensex closed 77,235 down almost 500 also at its low breadth 10 up 40 down
- Settlement 195 points below max pain a sliding market beats a static magnet
- Only defensives green 1.29 percent IT down 1.93 realty down 1.42
- Clients fourth consecutive record 6.97 lakh naked puts plus 37,000 more sold
- Clients bought 1.66 lakh fresh calls maximum bullish both directions
- Pros dumped the call leg net short 0.71 lakh calls first bearish lean of the month
- FII long 6.11 lakh puts first time over 6 lakh with 1.09 lakh bought in a day
- FII index futures short 1.94 lakh a new cycle high
- FII cash bought 1,652 crore DII 2,579 crore index options 24,163 crore
- Max pain 24,300 to 350 sitting 145 to 150 points above the spot
- Call writers added 1.1 crore across 24,200 and 24,300 in one day
- Resistance 24,200 to 24,500 base support 24,000 with 1.14 crore puts
- PCR 0.82 weak expiry straddle 217 to 270 front IV just below 10
- Sensex expiry tomorrow IV building to 11 percent the auction premium returns
- Plan smallest size 24,000 to 24,350 zone break case is Korea and oil at 92
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Today the KOSPI is down 5.36 percent this morning. The five days the market went up, crashed in one session. The Nikkei is down 2.37 percent, minus 600 points off its record. The Nasdaq yesterday closed 1.33 percent and the S&P was down 0.69 percent. Brent is trading at 92.04, still climbing through the fired trigger, and the rupee is trading at 95.68, the weakest close ever. And our own tape walks in six days down continuously. This is the global morning, and this is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 106. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So first, yesterday's expiry, guys. Tuesday's expiry settled at 24,155, 132 points lower, 0.55 percent, at the low of the day. A gap down open happened at 24,223, a high of 24,269, no recovery throughout the session, and the session printed the low. Six straight lower closes that we have seen, and the fall has started from 24,472 and now currently we are at 24,155. Minus 317 points in six sessions that we have seen. The staircase is now a trend, and it is happening, and we will see whether today also will close negative or not. The Sensex closed at 77,235, minus almost 500 points, also at its low. And the breadth for the Nifty was 10 up and 40 down. The settlement happened 195 points below the max pain. A sliding market beats a static magnet every time. The only green pocket that we saw yesterday was defensives, 1.29 percent positive. IT was down 1.93 percent, realty was down 1.42 percent. So defence was positive, IT negative again, realty again negative. And the grade for yesterday's episode, it was a wrong, a second straight stop day. The spread entered at 140, 145, the hit happened immediately at 160, the loss was capped, but still the market drifted down and we hit that 24,150 mark. I will take a 2.5 on 5 for yesterday, and the full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. The two books that diverged, and that is where we are going to keep our focus on. The crowd, the clients, a fourth cons…
Continue Beyond This Episode
Concepts you heard above are covered in detail in the RupeeCase Learn library, and the live strategies on the marketplace put the same systematic approach to work. Free, no sign-up.
- Learn library | 11 paths, 70+ free modules covering momentum, multi-asset, risk metrics, factor investing, behavioural finance and execution.
- Why rules beat gut feeling | the systematic case the show is built on.
- Momentum factor deep dive | the engine behind every RupeeCase equity strategy.
- RBI monetary policy | how the macro signals discussed every morning shape the next session.
- RupeeCase Strategy Marketplace | 18 systematic portfolios across large, mid, small and multi asset sleeves.
- Take the 2-min risk profile | get matched to a strategy that fits your tier and capital band.
- All episodes | every prior session of The Tanmay Edge.