Season 2, Episode 111 | 2026-08-26
The Wall Became The Fuel | Nifty Closes AT The High, 134 Points ABOVE Max Pain, Through 2.16 Crore Calls | Crowd's Record 8.44 Lakh Naked Puts Expire Worthless | Fresh Board Writes Puts 1.75x Faster, Gamma Flips At 24,350 | Oil Collapses To
On Monday the option writers built the largest single position of this cycle: 2.16 crore calls at 24,300, after pressing 4.3 crore fresh calls onto the board in one session.
Verdict: 3/5 | 2 HIT, 1 PARTIAL, 2 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | The Resistance Became The Fuel
The resistance is now acting as the rocket fuel for the market. Monday the writers built the biggest position of the cycle, 2.16 crore calls written at 24,300. Tuesday, on the expiry, the market walked straight through it and closed at a high of 24,334, which is 134 points above max pain. On the day the weekly, monthly and quarterly books settled together. The trapdoor held first, with a low of 24,115, fifteen points above the line we drew. And the crowd, holding an 8.44 lakh naked put book, saw it expire worthless. For once, they won. Overnight oil collapsed to 86.44 from 94 on Friday. Every …
Tuesday's Expiry | The Close Was The High
The Nifty closed at 24,334, up 115 points or 0.48 percent, and the close was the high of the day. The rally started in the second half after 2:30 and expanded in the cash session. The open was around 24,175, the low was 24,115, and then a one way squeeze from 2:30. Advances were 34 against declines of 16, so two to one. The Sensex added another 286 points to close at 77,656, also at a high, after a 530 point range. VIX fell 3.5 percent to 11.13, so two days of fear building unwound in one hour. Midcap, IT and telecom were all positive, healthcare and consumer durables more than a percent, phar…
The Grade | Max Pain Is Not A Law
I will take a three on five for yesterday. 24,300 was the level and it crossed it, so that is the loss I will take. The lesson is that the biggest resistance was also broken. 4.3 crore calls were written on Monday, 2.16 crore of them at 24,300 alone, and it got ripped off in ten minutes. When price closes above a position that size, the writers become the buyers. Max pain was 24,200 to 24,250 and the settlement printed 134 points above it. Max pain is not a law. On expiry day a resistance that large is not a guarantee, and it can be changed in the live market as well. This analysis is on an en…
The Fresh Board | Puts Written 1.75 Times Faster
The BhavCopy is telling us something new. Puts are being written 1.75 times faster than calls, with put OI at 3.67 crore against call OI of 2.1 crore on the new expiry book. The 24,200 put now stands at 74 lakh, the biggest single add anywhere, and that is the support we take ahead. 24,100 stands at 40 lakh, 24,000 at 41 lakh, the 24,250 put at 34 lakh, and the 24,300 put at 44 lakh against 39 lakh on the call, which is the tipping point. Calls are stacked above 24,500 at around 55 lakh, and the biggest call position now sits at 24,600. The PCR has climbed nicely to 1.159, max pain has climbed…
The Sensex Board Into Thursday
Put OI added almost 1.21 crore against 16 lakh calls, roughly eight to one. Calls were covered at 77,700, 77,600, 77,500 and 77,400 across the board, so the real call buildup is only present at 78,000 and that is not a great resistance either. Strike ratios read 6.5 puts per call at 77,000, two per call at 77,500 and 0.3 at 78,000. So support is present at 77,500 and resistance at 78,000. Gamma turns positive above 77,800, so keep a watch on that, and remember that if 77,800 is broken we could easily see 78,000 getting pinned into. The one standard deviation map for next week's expiry stands a…
Who Did What | The Pros Bought Back What They Dumped
The pros bought back roughly 1.35 lakh calls. The desk that dumped 1.8 lakh calls on Monday's gap repurchased them into the squeeze. They dumped 1.74 lakh puts, so the protection got sold off into the strength, and futures are still long, trimmed slightly. The FIIs covered almost 35,000 short futures, and a short squeeze should come in if the rally continues. The put book got trimmed by 32,000 contracts, and in cash it was a straight buy on the second day of almost 1,594 crore. The clients sold almost 1.3 lakh calls into the rally, so the crowd sold what it bought at the top, on the right side…
The Plan | A Gap Up Above Every Level That Mattered
The gap up opens near 24,400, above every level that mattered last week. 24,350 to 24,400 is the pivot and gamma turns positive above it, so above 24,400 the dips get bought and swings shrink, while below it the amplified moves come back. Support right now is 24,320, so that is where the first buy zone opens. Resistance stands between 24,400 and 24,500, then 24,590 which is the one SD level. Base case, the gap up is held, 24,350 becomes the support and the range becomes 24,350 to 24,550. Fade case, the gap up is sold and we test back to 24,300, and below 24,300 the bullishness gets paused. For…
Highlights
- Nifty closed 24,334, up 115 points, and the close was the high of the day
- The settlement printed 134 points above max pain at 24,200 to 24,250
- Weekly, monthly and quarterly books all settled together
- The low of 24,115 held fifteen points above the line drawn on air
- 2.16 crore calls at 24,300 got ripped off in ten minutes
- The crowd's record 8.44 lakh naked puts expired worthless
- Sensex added 286 points to close at 77,656, also at a high
- VIX fell 3.5 percent to 11.13, unwinding two days of fear in one hour
- Large caps got squeezed while Smallcap 250 and microcap closed down
- TK graded the prior call three on five, the level was crossed
- Puts now written 1.75 times faster than calls on the fresh board
- Put OI 3.67 crore against call OI of 2.1 crore
- 24,200 put added to 74 lakh, the biggest single add anywhere
- PCR climbed to 1.159 and max pain climbed above 24,300
- Gamma flip level turns positive above 24,400
- Sensex put OI added 1.21 crore against 16 lakh calls, eight to one
- Sensex calls covered at 77,700, 77,600, 77,500 and 77,400
- Pros bought back 1.35 lakh calls and sold 1.74 lakh puts into the strength
- FIIs covered 35,000 short futures and bought 1,594 crore cash
- Clients sold 1.3 lakh calls into the rally, on the right side for once
- DII cash just 230 crore, the smallest of the month, against 38,487 cumulative
- Oil collapsed to 86.44 from 94 on Friday, eight dollars in three sessions
- GIFT Nifty 24,559 on the September contract, gap up near 24,400 on spot
- Plan on record: pivot 24,350 to 24,400, first buy zone 24,320, fade case 24,300
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. The wall has now become the fuel. That is, the resistance is now acting as the rocket fuel for the market. Monday the writers built the biggest position of the cycle, 2.16 crore calls written at 24,300. Tuesday, on the expiry, the market walked straight through it and closed at a high of 24,334, 134 above max pain. On the day, the weekly, monthly and quarterly books settled together. The trapdoor held first, a low of 24,115, 15 points above the line we drew. And the crowd, the 8.44 lakh naked put book, expired worthless. For once, they won. And overnight oil collapsed to 86.44 from 94 on Friday. Every rider we flagged has resolved the friendly way. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 111. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So first about yesterday, guys. The close was the high, the Nifty at 24,334, 115 points higher, or 0.48 percent higher. The close was the high of the day, and the rally started in the second half, post 2:30, and it expanded in the cash session. The open happened at around 24,175, a low of 24,115, then a one-way squeeze from 2:30. Advances of 34 versus declines of 16, so 2 to 1 over there. The Sensex added another 286 points to close at 77,656, also at a high, after a 530 point range. And VIX was down 3.5 percent to 11.13, two days of fear building unwound in one hour. And midcap, IT and telecom all positive, more than a percent healthcare, more than a percent consumer durables, almost a percent of pharma, 0.85 percent of PSU bank, 0.75 percent. But smallcap 250 was down, microcap was down. Large caps got squeezed, the broader market did not follow. And the grade for yesterday, I will take a 3 on 5 for it. So 24,300 was the ceiling and it crossed it, so that is the loss I will take. So the lesson, the biggest resistance was also broken. 4.3 crore calls were written on Monday, 2.16 crore of them at 24,300 alone, which got ripped off in 10 minutes. When price closes above a position that size, the writers b…
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