Season 2, Episode 114 | 2026-08-31

The Banks Bought Themselves Back | BANKEX Recovers 650 of 1,094 Points | Puts +311 Lakh, Calls -36 Lakh, PCR Turns for the First Time in Four Sessions

On Thursday the closing auction knocked 1,094 points off the BANKEX and marked IndusInd Bank at 970 while the same share traded at 1,002.90 on the other exchange. Federal Bank at 334.10 against 344.80. PNB at 112 against 115.40.

Verdict: 3.5/5 | 2 HIT, 2 PARTIAL, 1 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.

Cold Open | The Banks Bought Themselves Back

Today the banks bought themselves back. And we have Nifty expiry tomorrow, along with an MSCI rebalance that is going to happen in the CAS closing session, so an extremely volatile day is what we are looking into. This is the cleanest proof you will get that Thursday's marks were mechanical and that the CAS session is what is bringing in the volatility. On Thursday the closing auction took 1,094 points off the BANKEX and marked IndusInd, Federal, PNB and Canara down two to four percent on prints the tape never made. On Friday the BANKEX took back 650 of those points, sixty percent of it, in a …

Friday's Tape | One Sector Did All The Work

The Nifty closed at 24,175, up 85 points, up 0.35 percent, with a low of 24,076 and a high of 24,188. The Sensex closed 331 points up, 0.43 percent. Volume almost 3,000 lakh, value 21,000 crore. The VIX fell to 10.66, down 4 percent, back under the 11 level after three straight sessions of rising. But you need to know what actually did the work, because it was one sector. IT rose 3.51 percent with ten of its ten constituents advancing, a perfect breadth print inside the sector. TCS 4 percent, Infosys 3.5, LTIMindtree 3 percent. All the IT names carried it through. And the Nifty rose 35 basis p…

The Warning | The Index Rose And The Average Stock Fell

The Nifty 50 was 30 up against 19 down in the print. The Nifty 500 was 225 up against 271 down. The total market was 350 up against 396 down. The index rose and the average stock fell. Do not mistake an IT rally for a broad based market. On yesterday's call I will take a four on five. The tape, not the close, rule worked. 24,000 held as the support and 24,300 was never threatened.

The Board Inverted | Puts Written Against Calls Coming Off

Now the options board, and this is a complete reversal. For three straight sessions calls were being written at three to three and a half times the pace of the puts. On Friday that inverted, and badly. Put open interest was added 3.11 crore while call open interest was reduced by 36 lakh. And look at where. 44.4 lakh onto 24,100, taking it to almost the biggest single add on the board. 31.6 lakh onto 24,000, taking it to 1.02 crore, which is now the biggest position anywhere on the board. 23 lakh onto 23,900, and another 14 lakh onto 24,200. On the call side, 24,400 and 24,200, everything came…

The Map | The One SD Band Brackets The Magnet

One standard deviation into tomorrow's expiry gives a range of 24,050 to 24,300. Look where those edges stand. The lower edge, 24,066, sits exactly on Friday's low of 24,076. The upper edge, 24,285, sits just under 24,300. The band brackets the magnet, and the board wants 24,200. The straddle implied range is wider, around 23,950 on the lower end to 24,400 on the upper end, or exactly 23,967 to 24,384. And the futures ladder: tomorrow's contract at plus 70 basis, next week 107 points, and September at plus 188.

Two Big Flips | The Pros Turn Again, The Crowd Reduces Both Legs

There are two big flips. The pros bought back 1,62,000 calls and went from net short calls to net long in a single session, their second call flip in a week, so read that desk as trading the range and not carrying a view. The foreigners covered 35,000 call shorts but added 4,800 more futures short taking that book to about two lakh, and they sold cash in size. They are the one participant who did not turn. And the crowd finally sold almost 2 lakh calls, the biggest single day sale of the entire run, and covered almost 36,000 naked puts, the first reduction in four sessions on both the call and…

The Plan | Buy The Zone Into An Expiry With MSCI

The gap down opens near 24,090 to 24,120, right back at Thursday's close, and 24,000 to 24,100 is the strongest support on the board, 2.2 crore across those two strikes, with Friday's low at 24,076. That is your zone to buy. Max pain stands at 24,200, just above the spot into tomorrow's expiry, and the board wants it, the option chain wants it. The gamma flip level is 24,250 to 24,300, and above it the day compresses. 24,300 is the resistance with 1.3 crore calls written over there. The range for the day is 24,066 to 24,285. Risk case, Asia's weakness carries through and 24,000 breaks, and bel…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. So today, the banks bought themselves back. And we have Nifty expiry tomorrow, along with an MSCI rebalance that is going to happen in the CAS closing session, so an extremely volatile day is what we are looking into. This is the cleanest proof you will get that the Thursday marks were mechanical and that the CAS session is what is bringing in the volatility. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 114. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let's look at what happened on Friday. The Nifty closed at 24,175, up 85 points, up 0.35 percent, with a low of 24,076 and a high of 24,188. The Sensex closed 331 points up, 0.43 percent. Volume almost 3,000 lakh, value 21,000 crore. And the VIX fell to 10.66, down 4 percent, back under that 11 level after three straight sessions of rising. But you need to know what actually did the work, because it was one sector. IT rose 3.51 percent with ten of its ten constituents advancing, a perfect breadth print inside the sector. TCS 4 percent, Infosys 3.5, LTIMindtree 3 percent. All the IT names carried it through. And the Nifty rose 35 basis points, so IT was very nearly the entire index move and everything else was the noise around it. Which brings me to the warning. The Nifty 50 was 30 up against 19 down in the print. The Nifty 500 was 225 up against 271 down. The total market was 350 up against 396 down. The index rose and the average stock fell. Do not mistake an IT rally for a broad based market. On yesterday's call, I will take a four on five. The tape, not the close, rule worked. 24,000 held as the support and 24,300 was never threatened. Full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. Now the options board, and this is a complete reversal. For three straight sessions calls were being written at three to three and a half times the pace of the puts. On Friday that inverted, and badly. Put open interest was added 3.11 crore while call open interest was reduced by 36 lakh. And look at where. …

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Verdict: 3.5/52 HIT, 2 PARTIAL, 1 MISSGraded next morning against NSE settlementFull track record →
How the grade landed

Graded Tue 01 Sep against the Mon close 24,090. The 24,000 support was the right level and it held on a closing basis, so the buy zone call was correct in substance. But it broke intraday to 23,993 and the day never got back to the 24,200 magnet the board was said to want, so the pin half of the call did not arrive. The one SD band framed the session properly and the spreads only discipline held through an expiry eve with an MSCI rebalance. Three and a half out of five.

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