Season 2, Episode 12 | 2026-04-02
Oil Bounced Back | Clients Trapped | Sensex Expiry Is a Long Gamma Day
Fii sold another -8,331 crore
Market Overview
GIFT Nifty crashed 461 points overnight. Oil bounced back from $101 to $106. And today? Sensex monthly expiry. Good Friday tomorrow. No hedge over the weekend. SEG 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES | 0:35-1:30 | ~55s Let me set the stage. Because what happened in the last 48 hours is a masterclass in how fast things flip. GIFT Nifty this morning: 22,390. Down 461 points from the overnight high. Dollar index at 99.91. Rupee under pressure at 86.77. Gold still near all-time highs | $4,694. But here's the part nobody's talking about... Clients are long. +3,00,039 contracts. They bought the dip yesterday th…
F&O Positioning
SEG 2: PRO / FII / CLI (THE EDGE) | 1:30-3:00 | ~90s Let's go to the positioning. This is where the real story is. Pro traders | the proprietary desks | are sitting on +9,261 long contracts. Quietly building. They don't chase. They accumulate. When Pro goes net long while the crowd panics? That's a signal. FII? Short. Massively short. -2,64,821 futures contracts. And right now? They're winning. Yesterday's cash market? FII sold another -8,331 crore. DII absorbed +7,171 crore. March was a record month | FII pulled out -1,22,548 crore in cash. Their F&O book? -1,76,544 crore for March alone. Now…
Options & GEX Analysis
Sensex Expiry Is a Long Gamma Day. COLD OPEN | 0:00-0:20 | ~20s 3 lakh long contracts. That's what clients are sitting on right now. While FII is short 2,64,821 contracts... and winning. This is a long gamma trap. And if you're holding long... you need to hear this. INTRO STING | 0:20-0:35 | ~15s India's pre-market edge, in under 8 minutes. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 12. Let's go. By close? Nifty settled at 22,679 | gave back a big chunk. VIX dropped to 24.87. Felt like things were calming down. Then overnight... everything reversed. But wait | does that mean a straight line down?…
Commodities & FX
Oil Bounced Back. Clients Trapped. Yesterday morning, Nifty gapped up 525 points. Iran de-escalation. Oil crashed below $102. Global risk-on. KOSPI up 7.78%. It felt like FY27 was starting with a bang. Brent crude surged from $101.70 to $105.79. That's +4.58% in 1 night. WTI back above $100. Trump escalated war rhetoric. Iran peace hopes | gone. The oil crash that was supposed to be India's biggest tailwind? Dead in 12 hours.
Sector Watch
So what are the sectors doing? Let me pull up the screener... SEG 4: TK SCREENER + SECTORS | 4:15-5:15 | ~60s Screener is mostly red. Combined scores bearish across the board. But there's 1 exception. Defence. GRSE up 19.68% yesterday. Mazagon Dock +12.34%. Cochin Shipyard +13.82%. Hindustan Copper +10.97%. When geopolitical tension rises, defence stocks become the safe haven. That's the only Strong Buy on the screener right now. Financials had a good April 1 | BSE +7.43%, SBI +4.26% | but that was the rally day. Today will test if those gains hold.
Trading Plan & Levels
FII is short and winning. Clients are long and trapped. That's the setup. For Nifty | weekly expiry is April 7, not today. But the levels matter. Nifty ATM at 22,700. Massive call OI wall at 22,700 | 23 lakh contracts. That's a ceiling. Put support building at 22,500. My Nifty range: 22,200 to 22,700. TK ALGO on Sensex: Sell signal at 73,102. Projected target 73,318. India VIX at 28.51 | elevated but not extreme. Nifty ALGO: Sell Exhausted at 22,874. That's a potential bottom signal. The algorithm is saying the selling might be running out of steam. Large caps | Reliance +2.39%, HDFC Bank +2.0…
RupeeCase Update
RupeeCase Nifty held up well yesterday. Alpha over Nifty: +9.01%. The portfolio rebalanced on April 1 | we hold BHARATFIN, COALINDIA, HINDALCO, NTPC, SBI, POWERGRID, TATASTEEL, SUNPHARMA, ONGC, DIVISLAB. Portfolio value: 41,74,424. The model doesn't panic. It doesn't chase. It stays systematic. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. CTA CLOSE | 6:30-7:00 | ~30s That's your edge for today. If this added value | share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I'm building RupeeCase | India's systematic investing terminal. Lin…
Highlights
- Fii sold another -8,331 crore
Transcript Excerpt
The Tanmay Edge S2 EP12 | Clean Transcript 2 April 2026 | Sensex Monthly Expiry --- COLD OPEN [0:00-0:23] 3 lakh long contracts. That's what clients are sitting on right now, while FII is short 2,64,000 contracts and winning. GIFT Nifty crashed 461 points overnight. Oil bounced back from $101 to $106. And today | Sensex expiry. Good Friday tomorrow, so no hedge over the weekend. This is a long gamma trap, and if you are holding long, you need to hear this. --- INTRO STING [0:23-0:29] India's pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 12. Let's go. --- SEG 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES [0:29-1:44] So today is 2nd of April. Let me set the stage, because what happened in the last 48 hours is a masterclass in how fast things flip. Yesterday morning, Nifty gapped up 525 points on Iran de-escalation. Oil crashed below $102. Global risk-on was there. KOSPI was up by 7.8%. It felt like FY27 was starting with a bang. By close, Nifty settled nicely around 22,679 | gave back a big chunk but still positive. And VIX dropped to 24.87. Felt like things were calming down. Then overnight, everything reversed. And today morning, we saw Trump's news of the attack getting escalated in the next two weeks. Brent surged drastically from $101.70 to $105.80. That's a 5% jump in one night. WTI back above $100. Trump escalation, Iran peace hopes are gone. The oil crash that was supposed to be India's biggest tailwind | dead in 12 hours. GIFT Nifty this morning down almost 460 points, trading around 22,390. Dollar index just below that 100 mark, trading around 99.90. Rupee under pressure at 93.50. And gold still trading at $4,694. But here's the part nobody is talking about... --- SEG 2: PRO / FII / CLI [1:44-3:02] Let's go to the positioning. That's where the real story is. Pro traders have slightly | sitting on 9,261 long contracts. Quietly building. They don't chase. They accumulate. When Pro goes net long while the crowd panics, that's the signal. FII? Short. Mas…
Continue Beyond This Episode
Concepts you heard above are covered in detail in the RupeeCase Learn library, and the live strategies on the marketplace put the same systematic approach to work. Free, no sign-up.
- Learn library | 11 paths, 70+ free modules covering momentum, multi-asset, risk metrics, factor investing, behavioural finance and execution.
- Why rules beat gut feeling | the systematic case the show is built on.
- Momentum factor deep dive | the engine behind every RupeeCase equity strategy.
- RBI monetary policy | how the macro signals discussed every morning shape the next session.
- RupeeCase Strategy Marketplace | 17 systematic portfolios from RupeeCase Nifty 10 (entry-level) to AllCap Multi Asset (best Sharpe).
- Take the 2-min risk profile | get matched to a strategy that fits your tier and capital band.
- All episodes | every prior session of The Tanmay Edge.