The Monday That Didn't Crash : Crude Fading | Asia Bouncing | But the Trap Is Still Set

Market Overview

GIFT Nifty? Minus 28 points. Almost flat. Nikkei bounced 904 points. KOSPI up 2.2%. The bloodbath didn’t show up. But the trap is still set. Let me show you. INTRO STING (0:20–0:35) This is The Tanmay Edge | India’s pre-market edge in under 8 minutes. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 13. Monday, 6 April. Let’s go. SEG 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES (0:35–1:30) Remember last episode | Asia was bleeding. KOSPI minus 4.67, Nikkei minus 2.43. Everyone was calling for a Monday massacre. Here’s Monday. Nikkei up 904 points, plus 1.7%. KOSPI up 118, plus 2.2%. Complete reversal. Straits Times up 0.37…

F&O Positioning

SEG 2: PRO / FII / CLIENT | THE SIGNATURE (1:30–3:00) Let’s answer that question. Who covered? Start with Pro.

Options & GEX Analysis

SEG 3: OPTIONS + LEVELS (3:00–4:15) India VIX at 25.37 from Thursday. Still elevated. But weekly IV at 24.33 | and the sell IV signal continues. Here’s the play: morning could see a jump in vol on the opening print, but by afternoon, expect IV compression. Tomorrow is 7 April expiry | theta will eat premium all day. The 1DTE straddle is priced at 531 rupees. That gives you an implied range of roughly 22,100 on the downside and 23,200 on the upside. 600 points either way. But the market’s telling you probability favors the center. Structure of the day | sell vol. Iron flies. Sell the straddle, …

Commodities & FX

Last episode, I told you | crude spiked 11% in a single day. FII sold 9,931 crore. KOSPI crashed 4.67%. Markets were shutting for 4 days. And I asked you: what happens Monday? Well, it’s Monday. And the answer is | not what anyone expected. Commodities | and this is key. Last episode, crude was the villain. WTI had just spiked to 112. Today? Brent at 109.46, up just 0.4%. WTI at 110.53, actually down 0.9%. The crude panic is fading. Not gone, but fading. Gold at 4,663, down 14 points. Safe haven trade cooling. Dollar Index at 100.12, barely moved. USD/INR still at 93.10.

Sector Watch

SEG 4: TK SCREENER + SECTORS (4:15–5:15) TK Screener | Nifty showing buy on all 3 timeframes. But algo score is minus 56, neutral zone. So the direction says buy, the conviction says wait. Cautious accumulation, not a full send. Sectors | last episode I flagged IT as the relative outperformer. It delivered | up 2.34% Thursday while everything else bled. Energy and metal are neutral-to-buy, crude beneficiaries. The casualties: finance, infra, housing | all in sell territory. That’s where FII selling hits hardest. Avoid those until the flow turns.

Trading Plan & Levels

Trading plan: buy dips toward VWAP. Scalping day. Credit spreads, not naked directional bets. SEG 5: TANMAY’S READ (5:15–6:30) My read for Monday. Cautiously buy on dips. Pro has already started accumulating | they’re light long and hedged. That’s the smart money signal. Follow it. VWAP at 22,500 is your magnet | buy dips toward that level. Scalp the range. Sell vol with iron flies and credit spreads. Tomorrow is expiry, vol should compress by afternoon. This isn’t a trending day | it’s a mean-reversion day. This is about being positioned. Not about being right.

Education

RupeeCase Update

Plus | they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I called this max bearish. That hasn’t changed. They’re not covering. ...but here’s what nobody’s telling you. Client. Plus 1,77,562 long futures. Minus 3,75,718 short puts. I said last episode | this is max vulnerability. Collecting pennies in front of a steamroller over a 4-day weekend. So did the steamroller show up? And the systematic side | RupeeCase Nifty. 10 momentum stocks. Gross return: 95.07%. Net: 63.71%. Alpha over Nifty 50: plus 11.15%. Current holdings: SHRIRAMFIN, COALINDIA,…