Monday's V-Shape stunned everyone

Let me show you what the data is actually saying.

INTRO

This is The Tanmay Edge, India’s pre-market edge for serious traders. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 14. Weekly expiry Tuesday. Let’s go.

SEGMENT 1: Global + Commodities

US markets closed mixed last night. S&P 500 at 6,611, up 0.44%. Nasdaq up 0.54% to 21,996. Dow the outlier, down 0.30% at 46,528. Tech carried the session, Nasdaq outperforming again.

Europe was split. FTSE up 0.69%. But DAX fell 0.56% and CAC down 0.24%. No conviction either way.

Asia this morning is red. Nikkei at 53,221, down 0.36%. GIFT Nifty at 22,876, down 0.54%, that’s a 147-point gap down from last night’s 23,023. Taiwan is the bright spot, up 1.27%. Shanghai flat-to-green, up 0.37%. KOSPI barely positive at 0.10%.

Client, the crowd. Futures at +1,78,090. And here’s the danger number: -3,61,799 short puts. That’s 3.61 lakh contracts worth of puts that clients have sold. On a day the market went to 22,542, those puts were deep in trouble. They survived because of the V-shape. But today is expiry day with GIFT Nifty already below 22,950. If the market opens weak, client short puts are back in the danger zone.

GIFT Nifty right now? 22,876. That’s 74 points below the flip line. We are opening in negative gamma territory. That’s exactly why yesterday’s morning crash from 22,800 to 22,542 was so violent, negative gamma accelerated it. And the bounce past 22,950 into positive gamma territory accelerated the recovery. The V-shape was literally a gamma regime change in real time.

VIX at 25.56, elevated. With GIFT Nifty below the flip line on expiry day, I’m expecting fast moves in both directions. This is a long gamma day, you want to own options, not sell them. If you’re holding short straddles, tighten your stops.

GIFT Nifty at 22,876 means we’re opening below the flip line again. Same setup as yesterday morning. But today is expiry, OI is higher, pin effects are stronger, and theta decay is working against option buyers.

My bias: high volatile expiry. GIFT Nifty is starting below the flip line with crude surging and FII still stubbornly short. Don’t sell naked options today. If you’re trading, own options. Keep your stops tight.

This is where the real story is. Let me start with Pro, the proprietary traders. The side changers.

Pro futures moved to +14,617. That’s +940 contracts added on Monday. Small number, but Pro’s been quietly building long since the 22,350 low. They’re positioning for more upside. Pro also added call longs, +69,612 net calls. They’re the first ones to lean bullish.

Now FII. This is the headline. FII net futures: -2,68,462. They covered 366 contracts on a day the market moved 620 points. Let me put that in perspective, that’s 0.14% of their position. On the biggest intraday reversal in weeks. They didn’t blink.

But something unusual happened. FII bought index options worth +1,040 Cr on Monday. FII are typically option sellers. When they start buying, it’s hedging. They’re protecting their short book. That tells you they’re not planning to cover, they’re preparing for volatility.

Cash side: FII sold another -8,167 Cr. DII absorbed +8,089 Cr. The DII absorption machine continues, rupees in, dollars out.

Then the market crossed back above 22,950, the flip line. Suddenly dealers switched to positive gamma. Now they’re buying every dip instead of selling into it. The character of the market changed completely. Same stocks, same participants, completely different behavior. That’s what gamma does. If you understand where the flip line is, you understand when the market’s personality changes.

My Read for Tuesday:

Yesterday I said the trap is still set. 2 hours into the session, Nifty was at 22,542, down 400 points. People were calling it the crash. Then the market did what nobody expected, a 620-point V-shape to close at 22,968, up 1.12%.

But here’s the number that matters more than the 620. FII covered 366 contracts. Out of 2,68,462 short. That’s 0.14%. The market rallied 620 points and FII didn’t blink.

SEGMENT 3: GEX, Options & Key Levels

Today is weekly Nifty expiry. And the GEX setup is telling you everything.

The GEX flip line is at 22,950. Above that level, dealers are in positive gamma, they buy dips, sell rallies, market stays stable. Below 22,950, negative gamma kicks in, dealers sell into drops, buy into rips. Moves get amplified.

Now here’s today’s map. 23,200 is the new call wall, that’s where the biggest open interest sits. 2.5 million OI was added there yesterday. Total OI at 62.8 lakh. GEX of +2,420. That’s the magnetic ceiling. If the market somehow gets there, expect pinning or rejection.

On the downside, 22,600 is where negative gamma gets aggressive, GEX of -1,203. And Monday’s intraday low of 22,542 is the floor. If that breaks, you’re looking at acceleration toward 22,350.

Education Point, What is a Gamma Regime Change?

Yesterday was a textbook example of what I call a gamma regime change. The market opened in negative gamma territory below 22,950, dealers were short gamma, amplifying the move down. Every dip triggered more selling. That’s how you get a 400-point crash in 2 hours.

3 scenarios. Above 23,100, positive gamma kicks in, squeeze toward 23,200 call wall. Between 22,950 and 23,100, expiry pin zone, dealers hedge, low volatility grind near 23,000. Below 22,950, negative gamma, fast moves, first support 22,600, last defense 22,542.

Gold at $4,627, down half a percent. Safe haven demand cooling slightly. Dollar Index at 100.12, barely moved. Rupee at 93.06.

MCX crude at 10,630. MCX Gold at 1,50,100. Silver at 2,33,367.

IT was soft, Nifty IT up only 0.61%. With crude surging and rupee weakening, IT may underperform near term despite the Nasdaq strength.

Monday’s V-shape was broad-based. Bank Nifty rallied 2.01% to 52,585. PSU banks led the charge. Private banks followed.

Metal sector was strong, TATASTEEL, HINDALCO, COALINDIA all up. SHRIRAMFIN was the standout at +3.50%, the top mover in the RupeeCase Nifty portfolio.

Screener signals are mixed. Most sectors bounced hard from oversold zones yesterday. The question is whether that bounce holds or this is a dead cat that’s about to be tested again on expiry day.

SEGMENT 5: Tanmay’s Read

RupeeCase Nifty rebalanced yesterday. All 10 stocks held. Portfolio alpha +1.15% over Nifty 50. SHRIRAMFIN leading at +3.50%. Track it live on rupeecase dot com.

CTA CLOSE

That’s your edge for today. If this added value, share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I’m building RupeeCase, India’s systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes.

The data doesn’t lie. Narratives do. You just got earlier.

See you tomorrow.