Season 2, Episode 43 | 2026-05-20

EP43 | The Tanmay Edge

Global bond yields are climbing across every major curve overnight | US 10Y at 4.67% near a one-year high, UK 10Y jumped over 1% in a session to 5.13%, Germany 3.19% up 0.86%, Italy 3.98%, Japan 2.79%.

Cold Open | Bond Yields Rally Across Every Curve

Yesterday the foreigners sold again. The rupee stayed above 96. And tonight government bond yields are paying more all over the world. London. Berlin. Tokyo. New York. Yields climbing on every curve I am seeing. Tomorrow Sensex closes its weekly book. Today is the day before that. One day to settle the bet. This is The Tanmay Edge.

Segment 1 | Global And Commodities

Start with what is loud overnight. Bond yields. The American 10 year is at 4.67 percent, parked at a 1 year high. UK 10 year jumped over 1 percent in one session to 5.13. Germany 3.19 climbed almost 1 percent. Italy 3.98. Brazil 14.51. Even Japan, the cheapest money in the world, at 2.79. When bonds pay more, equities pay relatively less. The math is simple. Foreign desks have a cheaper place to park money than emerging markets. That is the slow leak you have been watching for 3 weeks. GIFT Nifty 23445 down 120. Nikkei minus 1.18. Hang Seng minus 0.54. KOSPI minus 0.78, now down 9.5 percent ac…

Segment 2 | Cash And Derivatives

Monday FII flipped to buyer with 2813 crore. Tuesday they sold again, 2457 crore back out the door. The flip lasted 1 day. The buyer didn't stay. Cumulative still minus 54151 crore for the year. But domestic desks did something interesting. DII came in with 3802 crore Tuesday. So when FII sold, DII bought the dip cleanly. Combined cash flow positive by 1344 crore. 2 desks. Different views. Nifty barely moved. Closed 23618 down 31 points. The professional desk did something I want to flag. Monday they were long both calls and puts at the same time. A textbook bet on movement, no direction. Tues…

Segment 3 | Levels And Asymmetry

Now the part that matters today. Sensex closed 75200. Tomorrow is Sensex weekly expiry. One trading day to settlement. At the money strike 75200. The straddle at the money 870 rupees. Implied move between now and Thursday close about 1.17 percent. Here is the asymmetry. The math behind options is not symmetric around this exact strike. Pull up the 75200 row and the total options gamma number sits at plus 31. One strike below at 75000 it is minus 321. Two strikes below at 74500 it is minus 765. In plain language. Below 75200 moves accelerate. Dips get bigger. Bounces snap back harder. Above it …

Segment 4 | Sectors And Screener

Sector tape. IT is leading. Yesterday IT was up 3.23 percent. TCS, Infosys, HCL, Tech M all green. The Nvidia overhang is being priced in. Mid cap IT and telecom up 2.33. Pharma defensive bid is holding. Realty up 1.43. The other side. Private banks the weakest sector down 0.74. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank dragged. Bank Nifty broke 53500 which it had been defending for 2 weeks. Metals flat. FMCG flat. The screener tape shows the IT basket, chemicals and mid cap select all on Strong Buy. Crypto continues to bleed. Bitcoin under 77000. Ethereum at 2100. 814 million dollars in liquidation in 24 hours. …

Segment 5 | Tanmay's Read

2 things matter today. Bond yields climbing everywhere is a slow leak on foreign equity money. It explains why 1 day buying doesn't stick. And Sensex sits exactly on the math line, 1 day before expiry. When spot sits on this line, you do not pick a side. You buy options because their premium is cheap relative to the movement coming. You play for the movement either way. Below the line, ride the dip down. Above the line, ride the bounce back to the middle. When the move stretches, sell the stretched premium. When the move pins, buy it back. The keyword is hedge. Long futures, hedge with a put. …

CTA Close | Two Trades One Magnet No Side

That is the read for Wednesday 20 May. 1 day to Sensex expiry. Bond yields rising globally. Spot on the math line. Trade the movement, not the direction. If you are listening on Apple, Spotify or YouTube, thank you for being here. If this helped, please subscribe and rate. It helps other traders find the show. The Tanmay Edge drops at 8:30 AM IST every trading day on rupeecase.com. 2 trades. 1 magnet. No side picking. This is The Tanmay Edge. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow.

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. Yesterday the foreigners sold again. The rupee stayed above 96. And tonight government bond yields are paying more all over the world. London, Berlin, Tokyo, New York. Yields climbing on every curve I am seeing. Tomorrow Sensex closes its weekly book. Today is the day before that. One day to settle the bet. This is The Tanmay Edge. India's pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2. Episode 43. Let's go. Start with what's loud overnight. Bond yields. The American 10 year is at 4.67%, parked at a 1 year high. The UK 10 year jumped over 1% in a single session, sitting at 5.13%. Germany at 3.19% climbed almost 1%. Italy at 3.98%. Brazil at 14.51. Even Japan which has been the cheapest money in the world is at 2.79. When bonds pay more, equities pay relatively less. The math is simple. The foreign desks have a cheaper place to park money than emerging markets. That is the slow leak you have been watching for the last 3 weeks. GIFT Nifty is trading at 23,445, down 120 points. Asia is also mostly red. Nikkei is down by 1.18%. Hang Seng is down by 0.54%. The KOSPI down by 0.78%, now down almost 9.5% across the last 3 sessions. Jakarta plunged 3.59%. Wall Street ended Tuesday weaker. NASDAQ down 0.87%, S&P down 0.67%. Everyone is sitting on their hands until Nvidia opens its earnings book tonight US time. That is Thursday's mover for Indian IT. And commodities, Brent crude is trading at 110.51, slipping two thirds of a percent. WTI at 103.36. Gold is trading flat at 4,485 dollars per ounce. The Indian rupee closed 96.52, intraday high of 96.62. The central bank stepped in there and some relief was seen. Dollar index is just below that 99.50 mark, trading around 99.36. Now let's look at the desks, what they did yesterday. On Monday FIIs flipped to buyer with 2,813 crore of cash buying. On Tuesday they sold again and back to basics, 2,457 crore back out of the door. So that flip lasted only one day. The buyer didn't stay. The cumulative number s…

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