Season 2, Episode 44 | 2026-05-21

EP44 | The Tanmay Edge

Sensex weekly expiry day and the overnight tape just rewrote the chart. Brent crashed from 109 to 105.73 in the evening session, a 5% crack in four hours. WTI broke 100 to print 99.27. Then Asia opened and KOSPI ripped 6.80%, Nikkei 3.

Cold Open | Crude Cracked And Asia Ripped Overnight

I am sitting here at 8 in the morning looking at the screen and I am going to be honest with you. I did not expect this. Yesterday at 5:30 when the market closed Brent was at 109. By 9:50 it was at 105.73. That is a 5 percent crack in four hours. WTI broke 100 and printed 99.27. Then I opened my laptop this morning and KOSPI is up 6.80 percent. Nikkei up 3.55. Taiwan up 3.38. Asia is completely ripping. This is The Tanmay Edge. Season 2 Episode 44.

Segment 1 | What Happened Wednesday Under The Surface

If you missed Wednesday you are going to misread today. Nifty closed 23659. Sensex closed 75388. Both green by a quarter percent. Boring on the surface. But under the surface something loud happened. The professional desks on the option chain did something they have not done all season. They flipped from being short 21902 call contracts Tuesday to being long 133782 call contracts Wednesday. One session. A swing of 155684 contracts. Which is a fancy way of saying the smartest seat in the room reversed direction overnight and bet the move was coming. And then the move came.

Segment 2 | The Overnight Confirmation Tape

Crude crashed 5 percent in the evening session. S and P 500 closed up 0.89. Nasdaq closed up 1.54. DAX in Germany closed up 1.36. Even the US 10 year bond yield dropped from 4.67 to 4.58. The bond market is also saying the pressure is releasing. GIFT Nifty 23807 at 7:50, up 142 points from Wednesday close. We are opening around 23800. The question is not whether we open green. We are opening green. The question is what we do with the green. Wednesday they finally picked. The Pro desk added 2817 long futures contracts and reversed 155684 contracts on calls. They paid for upside. The upside came…

Segment 3 | Third Time This Season And Three Reasons To Buy The Dip

This is the third time this season we have seen this exact sequence. Episode 25. Episode 32. Now Episode 44. Each time the Pro desk flipped to long calls on a Wednesday and the market gave them the move within 36 hours. The first two times we faded the rally into the wall. This time the play is different. Buy the dip. Not the open. Three reasons. One, Brent at 105 means the escalation premium just released. For two weeks every dip was bought by traders pricing crude back to 115. That bid lost its anchor. Two, global 10 year yields dropped together. India 7.10. Germany 3.09. Italy 3.84. UK 5.00…

Segment 4 | Sensex Expiry Day Trade Plan

Today is Sensex weekly expiry. That makes the trade tactical. If Sensex opens around 75900 and holds above 75800 in the first 30 minutes the writers who got caught short calls Wednesday will defend 76200 and the magnet shifts to 75900. Sell premium near 75900 if you trade options. Exit by 14:30. Do not hold into the close. If Sensex opens 75900 and slips back to 75500 in the first hour the gift gets taken. 75500 becomes the floor and 24000 on Nifty becomes the next level on the right side of the chart. That is the dip you buy. Not the open. The dip. If you are watching cash and not options, sa…

Segment 5 | The One Red Chart And The Rupee Question

One thing on my screen is red. Gold on MCX. Closed 160042. Down 1.78 percent for the week. The government raised the gold import duty to 15 percent Tuesday night. Kalyan dropped 6 percent. Silver dropped 7. The whole jewellery basket is recalibrating. Watch the gold names today. If you own jewellery stocks you are sitting in a duty trap. If you are a buyer see if 158000 holds on gold or if we get a flush. The one thing that bothers me is USD INR. The rupee closed 96.82 yesterday. Just below the record. Did not weaken further overnight. Did not strengthen either. If Brent stays at 105 the rupee…

Segment 6 | Tanmay's Read

Pro desk flipped bullish Wednesday. Overnight tape paid them off. Today is expiry day with a gap up open. Buy the dip. Not the open. The dip. Watch 75500 on Sensex and 23700 on Nifty for the level the buyers come back at. Above 23900 we have a clean run at 24000 by next week. Below 23700 today we wait. We are still six sessions into a pattern where direction has been right and levels have been tight. Yesterday was the first time direction and levels both lined up. 4 out of 5 strict predictions hit. The one that missed was Bank Nifty reclaiming 53500 which it did on the rally. The read is being…

CTA Close | Have A Happy Expiry. Buy The Dip Not The Open

Have a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. This is The Tanmay Edge.

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. So I am sitting here at 8 a.m. in the morning looking at the screen and I'm going to be honest with you. I did not expect this. Yesterday when the markets closed Brent was at 109. By evening it was at 105.73. That is a 5% crack in four hours. WTI broke 100 dollars and printed 99.27. Then I opened my laptop this morning and KOSPI is up by almost 7%. Nikkei is up by 3.55%. Taiwan is up by 3.38%. Asia is completely ripping. This is The Tanmay Edge. You're listening to Tanmay Kurtkoti, Season 2, Episode 44. Let's go. I want to start with what happened Wednesday. Because if you missed it, you're going to misread it today. Nifty closed at 23659. Sensex closed at 75388. Both green by a quarter percent. Boring on the surface level, but under the surface something loud happened. The professional desks on the option chain did something they have not done all the season. They flipped from being short 21902 call contracts on Tuesday to being long 133782 call contracts on Wednesday in one session. That is a swing of 155000 contracts, which is fancy way of saying the smartest seat in the room reversed direction overnight and bet the move was coming in. And then the move came. Crude crashed 5% in the evening session. The S&P closed up by 0.89%. NASDAQ closed up by 1.54%. The European markets closed higher. Even the US 10 year bond yields dropped from 4.67 to 4.58, which means the bond market is also saying the pressure is releasing. Every chart on my screen this morning is green except for one and we will come to that as well. And about GIFT Nifty. GIFT Nifty is trading around 23807. That is up by 142 points from yesterday's Nifty close, which means we are opening around 23800 today. And if you are watching this morning the question is not whether we open green or not. We are opening green. The question is what do we do with the green. So here is what I am thinking. For the last three weeks I have been telling you the same story. The professional desk has…

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