Season 2, Episode 102 | 2026-08-13
Max Pain Slides Three Days To 24,400, The Crowd Hits A Record Naked Put Short, And The Auction Premium Is Finally Priced
At noon on Wednesday the Nifty sat at 24,266, down two hundred points, deep in the exact air pocket episode 101 mapped. Then somebody wrote a 5,842 crore cheque at the bottom.
Cold Open | Somebody Wrote A 5,800 Crore Cheque
Yesterday around noon the Nifty was at 24,266, down 200 points, exactly at the air pocket we mapped. And then somebody wrote a 5,800 crore cheque at the bottom. Not a cheque, buying, and that buying made a V-shaped recovery, 170 points off that low. And the buyer was not the FIIs. The buyer was local, the domestic buy of the month. On the day, foreigners sold 1,000 crore. That war is half of today's episode. The other half is the Sensex weekly expiry and round three of the new closing auction, and for the first time the market walks in with the auction premium already paid.
The Tape | A Close That Tells You Nothing
The Nifty closed 24,435, down 36 points, which tells you nothing, the market did absolutely nothing close to close. But the open at 24,472 was the high of the day, the third session running where the best print came in the first few minutes. It sold straight down to 24,266, then spent the whole afternoon climbing back to close above 24,400. The Sensex fell 188 points to 77,966, but the bank index was green, up 0.6 percent. The VIX slipped to 11.67 and breadth was 17 up against 33 down.
The War | Two Armies, Opposite Directions, Both In Size
On Wednesday the FIIs sold 1,002 crore of cash and added to their index futures shorts, now almost 1.65 lakh short contracts. The domestic funds bought 5,842 crore, their biggest single day of the month, straight into the falling knife, and that is what built the V-shape. Step back and look at the week. The locals absorbed 7,000 crore plus, handed the book to the foreigners for two days, and took it back the moment price broke. Two armies, opposite directions, both in size. That resolves with a trend eventually, and until it does, every level is a battle between the FIIs and the DIIs.
The Board | Three Things, Each One A Lesson
One, max pain has slid three days in a row, 24,600 Monday, 24,500 Tuesday, 24,400 today. In one night it rode down another 100 points. The magnet does not pull price, it chases it too. Two, the call writers are chasing, 42 lakh fresh calls sold at the money at 24,400 and 38 lakh more at 24,500, taking that level to 89 lakh contracts, while the 24,500 put writers ran, covering 12 lakh. The box stays 24,400 to 24,500. And three, my favourite. The pros who dumped their entire long volatility book into Tuesday's expiry at 12 percent IV bought it back on Wednesday at 9.44. One day later. Buy it che…
Round Three | The Market Finally Paid For The Last 15 Minutes
102 episodes means we have the receipts. Round one, the settlement misfired and printed phantoms. Round two, the settlement held clean but the indicative price went wild inside the window and the volatility paid there. Both times the market walked in pricing a normal day and got surprised. Not this time. Today the Sensex one day implied volatility is 13.5 percent, up 19 percent yesterday, while the Nifty front week sits near 10. That gap of nearly 4 vol points is the auction premium. The market has finally learned to pay for the last 15 minutes. So round three asks the opposite question. When …
The Sensex Board And The Plan
78,000 is the battleground, 16.4 lakh calls against 11.1 lakh puts on that one strike, and max pain sits exactly there. Spot closed 77,966, just 34 points below the pin, futures at a 57 point premium leaning it back up. The put floor is 77,500 to 77,700 where writers added 12.6 lakh fresh contracts, and call resistance is 78,300 to 78,500. The straddle costs about 425, roughly half a percent. Inside 77,500 to 78,500 the straddle seller eats the premium and the 78,000 pin is the most crowded outcome. Buying window 77,700 to 77,500, selling window 78,300 to 78,500. The rules do not change, the i…
Highlights
- DII bought 5,842 crore the biggest single day of the month into the falling knife
- FII sold 1,002 crore cash and pushed index futures shorts to almost 1.65 lakh
- Nifty V-shape low 24,266 recovered 170 points to close 24,435 down just 36
- The 24,472 open was the high the third session running the best print came first
- Sensex fell 188 to 77,966 but the bank index closed green up 0.6 percent
- VIX slipped to 11.67 breadth 17 up 33 down
- Max pain slid three days 24,600 to 24,500 to 24,400 the magnet chases price
- 42 lakh fresh calls at 24,400 and 38 lakh at 24,500 taking it to 89 lakh
- Pros re-bought the long vol book at 9.44 IV one day after selling at 12
- Crowd sold 51,000 more naked puts to a record 5,74,000 plus 1.48 lakh calls
- FII put book to 5 lakh contracts also a fresh high same war one floor lower
- Sensex 1 day IV 13.5 percent vs Nifty front week 10 the auction premium priced
- Sensex 78,000 battleground 16.4 lakh calls vs 11.1 lakh puts max pain exactly there
- Spot 77,966 just 34 points below the pin futures at a 57 point premium
- Put floor 77,500 to 77,700 with 12.6 lakh fresh contracts added
- Sensex straddle about 425 roughly half a percent for the day
- KOSPI up 4.2 percent at a record over 11 percent in three days Nikkei fresh record
- Brent backed off 1.3 percent to 87.80 the 90 trigger walked back from the button
- GIFT 24,437 dead flat a quiet open right inside the box
- All Cap green on a red day alpha almost a percent since rebalance
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Yesterday at noon, almost, the Nifty was at 24,266, down 200 points, exactly at that air pocket we thought the Nifty would come in to. And then somebody wrote a 5,800 crore cheque at the bottom. No, it was not a cheque, it was buying, and the buying made the market a V-shaped recovery, 170 points off that low. And the buyer was not the FIIs. The buyer was local, the domestic buy of the month. On the day, foreigners sold 1,000 crore. That war is half of today's episode. The other half is the Sensex weekly expiry, and round three of the new closing auction session that we are going to see. And for the first time, the market has walked in with the auction premium already paid. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 102. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So first, let's look at yesterday, what happened. The Nifty closed at 24,435, down 36 points, which tells you nothing, the market did absolutely nothing close to close. The open at 24,472 was the high of the day, again the third session running where the best print came in the first few minutes of the opening. It sold straight down to 24,266, the low came in, and then it spent the whole afternoon climbing back, closing above 24,400. The Sensex fell 188 points to close at 77,966, but the bank index was green, up 0.6 percent. The volatility index, the VIX, slipped to 11.67, and the breadth across the board was 17 up to 33 down. So yesterday's call, guys, quickly. Episode 101 said 24,500 is the day, and if it fails, rallies are for selling, 24,400 first, air below that. The gap up GIFT Nifty promised evaporated overnight. What I did not map was the size of the local bid that caught it. I will take a 4 on 5 on that, and the full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. Now the war, guys, because this is where the heart of the tape is for today. On Wednesday the FIIs sold 1,002 crore of cash and added to their index futures shorts, now they hold almost 1.65 lakh short contracts on the …
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