Season 2, Episode 101 | 2026-08-12
Expiry Settles 128 Below Max Pain, The Pros Complete A 3 Day Vol Masterclass, 24,500 Is The New Battleground
The 100th episode's exam had a trick question in it. We mapped a 24,500 to 24,600 box and the market tore the floor off it in the first thirty minutes: the open at 24,575 was the high of the day, 24,500 broke by 9:45, and the Nifty fell int
Cold Open | The Exam Had A Trick Question
The 100th episode exam had a trick question in it. We mapped a box, 24,500 to 24,600, and the market tore the floor off it in the first 30 minutes. The plan stopped out, and I will grade that straight. Because what survived Tuesday was not the view, it was the process. A defined risk structure that capped the damage at 34 points, a stop loss that fired exactly where it was supposed to, and one conditional, oil, that called the break before it happened. And quietly, the smartest desk on the street just completed a three day volatility masterclass.
The Tape | The Floor Broke, The Magnet Lost
Tuesday's expiry day, Nifty closed 24,471, down 112, about half a percent. The open at 24,575 was the high of the day. It broke 24,500 inside the first half hour, hit an air pocket, fell to 24,429 by late morning, then ground sideways 24,430 to 24,480. 24,600, Monday's magnet, was never tested. The Sensex lost 388 to 78,154, and the weekly expiry settled at 24,471, 128 points below the 24,600 max pain. The first lesson, max pain is a tendency, not a law. It tells you where the magnet is, not whether the magnet wins. The moment price broke the floor of the box with force, the magnet stopped mat…
The Masterclass | Three Sessions, One Complete Cycle
Friday the front week traded under 10 percent volatility while the crowd sold puts, and the podcast said do not sell it. Monday, front IV exploded 22 percent to 12.2 and the curve inverted, and we said the smart money was long both sides. Tuesday, expiry day, implied crushed back to 9.95, the VIX fell almost four percent to 11.8, and the curve normalized. And the proprietary desks, from the official participant file, were long 2.14 lakh calls and 0.72 lakh puts on Monday night. By Tuesday's close, 2000 calls, minus 13,000 puts. They dumped the entire long vol book into the expiry, selling the …
Positioning | The Crowd Bought What The Pros Sold
On the breakdown day retail bought 2.09 lakh calls, taking them net long 1.89 lakh calls, while sitting short 5.2 lakh puts. After a 112 point fall, the crowd is positioned maximum bullish in both directions. The FIIs added again, put book at 4.85 lakh contracts, a fresh high, short 1.98 lakh calls, short 1.56 lakh index futures against 6.17 lakh stock futures, still a four to one hedged long. Cash flows were a token, FII plus 259 crore, DII plus 255. The armies have simply moved down one floor and reloaded.
The New Board | 24,500 Is The Battleground
On the 18 August week, max pain now sits at the 24,500 to 550 level. The old magnet at 24,600 is history, the new one is one floor down, and both sides piled onto it in a single day, 40 lakh fresh calls and 24 lakh fresh puts at 24,500, taking it to 51 lakh calls against 43 lakh puts. The deep put base sits at 24,000 with 58 lakh. Above, the resistance is 24,600 and 24,700, 45 and 48 lakh. The weekly straddle costs around 281 for 7 days at a 10 percent implied. That is back to cheap. Sounds familiar? It is Friday's setup all over again, 100 points lower. And the sectors told you where the fear…
The World | Oil 60 Cents From The Trigger
The US closed soft, Nasdaq down 0.6. But Asia woke up strong, Korea up a massive 3.7 percent, Taiwan up 0.5, the Nikkei green at fresh highs, only Hong Kong red. Gold climbed back to 4402. And the one that matters most, Brent is at 89.38, 60 cents from the 90 dollar trigger mark set on record two days back. The rupee closed 95.44, its weakest, the oil tax showing. GIFT Nifty is at 24,556, about 85 points above the close, so the market wants to open above 24,500 and the reclaim test comes at the opening bell itself. On the book, the All Cap gave back just 0.08 percent on a minus 0.46 day, alpha…
The Plan | Patience, One Number, Risk Defined
After a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a closing basis and the pin engine restarts, with 24,600 the first fight against 51 lakh fresh calls. Fail at 24,500 and rallies are for selling, playing mean reversion toward the 24,500 to 550 zone, with 24,400 first below, and under 24,400 the crowd's 5.2 lakh short puts start burning with air toward 24,200, the acceleration can be very fast. If Brent takes out 90, the downside gets the benefit of the doubt, do not fight the tape that day. Tomorrow is the Sensex weekly expiry, the third …
Highlights
- Expiry settled 24,471 a full 128 points below the 24,600 max pain
- Second max pain failure in three expiries tendency not law
- Nifty down 112 the 24,575 open was the high broke 24,500 in 30 minutes
- The low 24,429 landed exactly in the air to 24,400 zone episode 100 mapped
- Sensex lost 388 to 78,154 24,600 was never tested
- Vol cycle complete under 10 Friday exploded to 12.2 Monday crushed to 9.95 Tuesday
- VIX fell almost 4 percent to 11.8 and the curve normalized
- Pros dumped the long vol book 2.14 lakh calls to 2000 puts to minus 13,000
- Retail bought 2.09 lakh calls into the breakdown net long 1.89 lakh
- Crowd still short 5.2 lakh puts maximum bullish both directions at the lows
- FII put book fresh high 4.85 lakh short 1.98 lakh calls 4 to 1 hedged long
- Cash a token FII plus 259 crore DII plus 255 crore
- New battleground 24,500 with 51 lakh calls vs 43 lakh puts built in one day
- Deep put base 24,000 with 58 lakh resistance 24,600 and 24,700 45 and 48 lakh
- New week straddle 281 at 10 percent implied back to cheap again
- Defensive rotation India Internet up 1.9 Pharma 1 IT 0.6 third leadership in three days
- Brent 89.38 just 60 cents from the on record 90 trigger rupee weakest 95.44
- Korea up 3.7 percent Nikkei fresh highs GIFT 24,556 reclaim test at the bell
- All Cap alpha widened every day 0.59 to 0.85 to 1.01 this week
- Plan reclaim 24,500 on close restarts the pin fail and rallies are for selling
- Below 24,400 the crowds short puts burn with air to 24,200
- Thu 13 Aug Sensex weekly expiry auction round three keep rules loaded
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. The 100th episode exam had a trick question in it. We mapped a box, 24,500 to 24,600, and the market tore the floor off it in the first 30 minutes. The plan stopped out, and I will grade that straight. Because what survived Tuesday was not the view, it was the process. A defined risk structure that capped the damage at 34 points, a stop loss that fired exactly where it was supposed to, and one conditional, oil, that called the break before it happened. Also, quietly, the smartest desk on the street just completed a three day volatility masterclass. That is today's episode. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 101. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me set the scene, guys. Tuesday's expiry day, Nifty closed at 24,471, down 112 points, about half a percent. And here is the shape that matters. The open at 24,575 was the high of the day. It broke 24,500 inside the first half an hour, hit an air pocket, and fell to 24,429 by late morning, then ground sideways between 24,430 to 24,480 for the rest of the session. 24,600, Monday's magnet, was never tested. The Sensex lost 388 points and closed at 78,154. And the weekly expiry settled at 24,471, 128 points below the max pain of 24,600. Sit with that number for a second, because this is your first lesson today. Max pain said 24,600. The settlement printed 24,471. That is the second time in three expiries the pin theory has failed. Max pain is a tendency, not a fixed level where the expiry should happen compulsorily. It tells you where the magnet is, not whether the magnet wins. The moment price broke the floor of the box with force, the magnet stopped mattering, and the crowd's short puts, 5.5 lakh of them, became the fuel we warned about. The low, 24,429, landed exactly in that air to 24,400 zone episode 100 mapped. Now the grade, and I will not dress it up, we will look at it later. So now the part I find the most important, guys, the volatility cycle completed in three sessi…
Continue Beyond This Episode
Concepts you heard above are covered in detail in the RupeeCase Learn library, and the live strategies on the marketplace put the same systematic approach to work. Free, no sign-up.
- Learn library | 11 paths, 70+ free modules covering momentum, multi-asset, risk metrics, factor investing, behavioural finance and execution.
- Why rules beat gut feeling | the systematic case the show is built on.
- Momentum factor deep dive | the engine behind every RupeeCase equity strategy.
- RBI monetary policy | how the macro signals discussed every morning shape the next session.
- RupeeCase Strategy Marketplace | 18 systematic portfolios across large, mid, small and multi asset sleeves.
- Take the 2-min risk profile | get matched to a strategy that fits your tier and capital band.
- All episodes | every prior session of The Tanmay Edge.