Season 2, Episode 100 | 2026-08-11
Expiry Day Special: One Box, Three Clocks | 24,500 Fortress vs 24,600 Double Wall, Straddle 146 To 80 By 3:15, Buy Dips With Call Spreads
One hundred episodes. One hundred trading mornings of reading the actual exchange data, taking a view on record, and grading it in public the next day.
Verdict: 3/5 | 2 HIT, 2 PARTIAL, 1 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | One Hundred Mornings, One Hundred Point Box
Today is extremely special, the 100th episode. 100 trading mornings, 100 data packs, 100 sets of levels graded in public the very next day, every single time. And today is the weekly expiry as well, where the options board has squeezed into a 100 point box. 1.12 crore put support at 24,500. 1.46 crore call resistance at 24,600. Max pain sitting exactly in between, and a straddle that costs just 146 rupees.
The Milestone | The Scorecard Is The Product
When this started the idea was simple. Read the actual exchange data that gets published, take a view, put it on record, and grade it the next morning against the settlement. No hindsight, no deleting bad calls. 100 episodes later that scorecard is the product, and it is on rupeecase.com. And the system behind this podcast, the RupeeCase All Cap strategy, sits at 596 percent net return since inception against the benchmark's 49 percent, a CAGR of 47.43 percent. That gap is not prediction, it is process. Thank you for those hundred mornings. Now let's earn the hundred and first.
The Tape | Two Flips In Two Days Is A Pin, Not A Trend
Monday Nifty closed 24,583, up 13 points. It opened 24,581, dipped to almost 24,511 in the first hour, and the dip got bought exactly in the zone this podcast marked, 24,550 to 24,500. It then spent the whole day pressed under 24,600, high 24,620, and could not close above it. Sensex added 43 at 78,542, the fear gauge up 1.4 percent to 12.33. The rotation flipped a second time in two sessions. Friday's wreckage led, Titan up 3.1, Bajaj Finance 1.9, Finserv 1.2, while Friday's heroes faded, State Bank down 2.2 and TCS down 0.8. PSU banks down 1.7, defence down 1. Two flips in two days is not a …
The Board | Fortress At 24,500, Double Wall At 24,600
Max pain for today's expiry sits at 24,600 and we closed 16 points below it. Put writers added two crore contracts on Monday against just 10 lakh fresh calls, the PCR jumping from 0.73 to 0.85, the bullish side. At 24,500 the puts now stack 1.12 crore, 39 lakh added in one day, the biggest support on the board. At 24,600 sit 1.46 crore calls and almost 1.09 crore puts, both armies on the same strike. Above it, 1.09 crore calls at 24,700, 1.18 at 24,900, 1.29 at 25,000. Below the fortress, air until 24,400. The market has drawn a box of 24,500 to 24,600, and it expires today.
The Masterclass | Three Clocks
Clock one, implied volatility. Friday the weekly priced today under 10 percent while the back weeks sat near 11, the boring expiry consensus. Episode 99 said do not join that trade. On Monday front week IV exploded 22 percent in one session, 10 to 12.2, and the curve inverted, today now costs more than next month. Whoever sold volatility at Friday's prices financed that lesson. Clock two, forward volatility, roughly 10.65 percent between expiry one and two and 11 to the monthly, so the inversion is only in the front, the market fears today, not August. Clock three, the theta clock. The straddl…
Positioning | Long Vol, Hedged Long, Still Naked
The proprietary traders are long 2.14 lakh calls and 0.72 lakh puts, both sides, long volatility. They trimmed a little on Monday, booking the IV spike, not leaving the trade. The FIIs pushed their put book to 4.3 lakh contracts, the week's high, short 2 lakh calls, short 1.5 lakh index futures against 6.2 lakh long stock futures, a four to one hedged long. And in cash the roles reversed. FIIs bought 1975 crore on Monday, their biggest buy in weeks, plus 3925 crore into index options, while the DIIs sold 1290 crore, their first sell after absorbing 7000 crore plus all week. The FIIs are buying…
The Plan | Spread The Calls, Leave The Auction Alone
The bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is expiry, execution matters more than direction, and naked longs bleed to nothing by 3:15. The tool is the call spread, buy the 24,500 call and sell the 24,650 against it, or buy the 24,550 and sell the 24,700, one by two or two by three, so the writers' decay pays for the position all day. Pin at 24,600 and the spread finishes fat. Break up through 24,600 on a close and the 1.46 crore trapped calls cover, 24,700 comes first, the spread maxes out. Discipline, if 24,700 breaks and holds, cut t…
Highlights
- Episode 100 milestone 100 mornings of levels graded in public the next day
- All Cap strategy 596 percent net since inception vs benchmark 49 CAGR 47.43
- The board squeezed into a 100 point box 24,500 to 24,600 expiring today
- Put support 1.12 crore at 24,500 with 39 lakh added in one day
- Call resistance 1.46 crore at 24,600 with 1.09 crore puts on the same strike
- Max pain 24,600 closed 16 points below it straddle just 146
- Put writers added 2 crore contracts vs 10 lakh calls PCR 0.73 to 0.85
- Above the wall 1.09 crore calls at 24,700 1.18 at 24,900 1.29 at 25,000
- Monday dip to 24,511 bought exactly in the 24,550 to 24,500 zone called
- Front week IV exploded 22 percent in a session 10 to 12.2 the curve inverted
- Forward vol 10.65 then 11 percent the fear is only in the front week
- Theta clock 146 straddle opens 120 to 125 melts to about 80 by 3:15
- Pros long 2.14 lakh calls and 0.72 lakh puts long vol booking the IV spike
- FII put book 4.3 lakh the weeks high 4 to 1 hedged long via 6.2 lakh stock futures
- FII cash bought 1975 crore biggest in weeks plus 3925 crore index options
- DII sold 1290 crore first sell after absorbing 7000 crore plus all week
- Crowd still short 5.5 lakh naked puts covered only 14,000 into expiry
- Brent 87.90 up 5 percent in two sessions gold record 4426 oil the wild card
- Plan buy dips stop close below 24,500 call spreads 24,500/24,650 or 24,550/24,700
- Flat by 3:15 the last 15 minutes belong to the auction do not trade the indicative print
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Today is extremely special, as we are recording this 100th episode. 100 trading mornings, 100 data packs, 100 sets of levels graded in public the very next day, every single time. And it has been difficult for me to get to it, but today we are marking the 100th episode. And today is the weekly expiry as well, where the options board has squeezed into a 100 point box. 1.12 crore put support at 24,500. 1.46 crore call resistance at 24,600. Max pain sitting exactly in between, and a straddle that costs just 146 rupees. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 100. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So before the numbers, guys, 30 seconds from me to you. When this started, the idea was simple. Read the actual exchange data that gets published, take a view, put it on record, and grade it the next morning against the settlement. No hindsight, no deleting bad calls. 100 episodes later, that scorecard is the product, and it is available on rupeecase.com. And the system behind this podcast, the RupeeCase All Cap strategy, sits at 596 percent net return since inception, against the benchmark return of 49 percent, a CAGR of 47.43 percent. That gap is not prediction, it is a process that we have been following for so many years. Thank you for those hundred mornings. Now let's earn the hundred and first. So Monday, Nifty closed at 24,583, up 13 points. It opened at 24,581, dipped to almost 24,511 in the first hour, and the dip got bought exactly in the zone this podcast marked, 24,550 to 24,500. It then spent the whole day pressed under 24,600, a high of 24,620, and could not close above it. The Sensex added 43 points at 78,542. The VIX, or the fear gauge, up 1.4 percent to 12.33. And the rotation flipped for a second time in two sessions. Friday's wreckage led, Titan up 3.1 percent, Bajaj Finance up 1.9 percent, Bajaj Finserv up 1.2 percent. Friday's heroes faded, State Bank down 2.2 percent, TCS down 0.8 percent. Capital market names, realt…
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