Season 2, Episode 124 | 2026-09-15

The Writers Swapped Sides On The Last Day, And We Gap Up Onto The Magnet | Nifty Expiry

Nifty expiry day, and the board that settles today changed sides overnight.On Friday the put call ratio on the 15 September board went from 0.640 to 1.057 in a single session. Puts were added 5.42 crore against 2.58 crore of calls cut.

Verdict: 1.5/5 | 1 HIT, 1 MECH, 4 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.

Cold Open | The Writers Swapped Sides

We are back after two days of holiday. So the PCR on the board that settles today flipped from 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session on Friday. Max pain is at 23,450 and a gap up puts us straight onto it at the open. The US 10 year yield is at 5 this morning, and I named it at 4.97 on Friday. And 80 points of premium came back into the future in one day, and it came back on short covering.

The Receipt | All Three Happened

Four and a half out of five. That is what I will grade for Friday. I said we would open below the band, that volatility would rise, and that the band would shift lower. All three happened. VIX rose 4 percent to 12.26. The range was 23,231 to 23,448, entirely inside the lower half. I said 23,400 on the map and we settled at 23,398, one point away from it. I said maybe nothing to trade, and the straddle went from 210 to 208. It moved hardly anything.

Strip The Far Strikes Before You Call A Flip

The max pain currently is at 23,450. It was 23,500 on Thursday, so it came down 50 points on Friday. The spot settled at 23,398, which is 51 points below the magnet. The PCR is at 1.05; on Thursday it was 0.640. Total put open interest stands at 17.91 crore against 16.99 crore of calls, so calls were cut by 2.58 crore over the day and puts were added almost 5.42 crore. So to be honest about where the cut came from. Most of the cut came from the far strikes, and that was housekeeping: the far out of the money strikes went into unwinding, 25,000 and above, which always happens in expiry week. So…

The Migration Ran Five Sessions, Down 100 A Session

So 23,300 is the new both sides strike: the biggest put add on the whole board, 76 lakh at 23,300, and the second biggest call add, 18.47 lakh at the same strike. That strike is 98 points below the spot. And the migration, five sessions now: 23,800, then 23,700, then 23,500, and now 23,400 and 23,300. Down exactly 100 points a session, four sessions running. 23,300 now carries 1.38 crore puts, the biggest near the money block on the board and the biggest support we are going to see. And both sides walked away from 23,500: calls cut by almost 25 lakh, puts cut by almost 20 lakh. Same strike, sa…

The Premium Came Straight Back, And Why It Matters

The September basis went from 6 points to 87 points in a single session, 80 points of premium returning in one day, and the futures open interest fell by 3 lakh 96,630. Rising basis on falling open interest is short covering. Thursday was falling basis on falling open interest, which is long unwinding. Friday is the mirror image of it. The premium did not come back because somebody bought the future. It came back because somebody had to. The Bank Nifty basis went from 125 points to almost 260 in one day. And the far months are being bought outright: October basis 189 points on 3 lakh 20,840 of…

The Breadth Has Been Frozen For Three Sessions

The tape on Friday was very flat. The Nifty settled at 23,398, down 80 points, down 0.34 percent, but it was a reversal day: a low of 23,231, a high of 23,448. It fell 246 points from Thursday's close to the low, then took back almost 167 points into the settlement. Bank Nifty went the other way entirely, up 134 points. And the breadth has been frozen for three sessions. Friday, 952 advances against 1,644 declines, an advance decline of 0.597. Thursday, when the index was up, 0.56. Wednesday, when the index was down, 0.56. Three sessions, the index has swung both ways, and two in three stocks …

The Plan | A Pin Is Settlement Mechanics, Not A Trend

Three major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 7.01 from 6.97, Japan at 3. GIFT Nifty is up 82 points and we are the strongest thing on the page, the exact inversion of Friday when Asia was down 2 to 3 percent and we were down half. WTI is at 102.78, Brent back at 107 and both still rated very bullish, with Brent up 76 percent this year, while gold at 4,308 is still bearish and down 0.2 percent for the year. The rupee weakened a fourth consecutive session to 95.55. So the plan. GIFT at 23,525 points to an open of 23,440 to 23,490, a…

Highlights

Headline PCR flipped 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session
But most of the call cut was far strike housekeeping at 25,000 and above
Near money 22,900 to 23,900: calls plus 42 lakh against puts plus 2.61 crore
Near money PCR 1.217, six to one in favour of puts
Max pain 23,450, down 50 points from Thursday, with spot 51 points below it
23,300 is the new both sides strike, 98 points below spot
Biggest put add on the board 76 lakh at 23,300, second biggest call add 18.47 lakh
The both sides strike migrated 23,800 to 23,300, down 100 a session
23,300 now carries 1.38 crore puts, the biggest near money block
Both writers abandoned 23,500: calls cut 25 lakh, puts cut 20 lakh
23,500 still shows 93 lakh calls but is thinner than it looks
September basis went 6 to 87 points with futures OI falling 3,96,630
Rising basis on falling OI is short covering, the mirror of Thursday
Bank Nifty basis went 125 to almost 260 in one day
October basis 189 on 3,20,840 fresh OI, November 288 on 61,230
Nifty settled 23,398, down 80, after a 246 point fall and 167 point recovery
Breadth frozen three sessions: 0.597, 0.56, 0.56, in both directions
FII futures short to 2,84,000, another run high, never once turned
Short 2.8 lakh futures, short 8.7 lakh calls, long 6.7 lakh puts, one direction
Pro call book reversed a fourth time in four sessions, a 1,18,176 swing
Three major sovereign 10 year yields on round numbers: US 5, India 7.01, Japan 3
Brent back at 107 and up 76 percent this year while gold is down 0.2
Straddle implied move 260 against a 251 point one SD, gap uses 82 of it
Plan on record: open on the magnet, band 23,150 to 23,650, iron fly at 23,450

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. We are back after two days of holiday. So the PCR on the board that settles today flipped from 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session on Friday. Max pain is at 23,450 and a gap up puts us straight onto it at the open. The US 10 year yield is at 5 this morning. I named it at 4.97 on Friday. And 80 points of premium came back into the future in one day, and it came back on short covering. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 124. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So four and a half out of five. That is what I will grade for Friday. I said we would open below the band, that volatility would rise, and that the band would shift lower. All three happened. VIX rose 4 percent to 12.26. The range was 23,231 to 23,448, entirely inside the lower half. I said 23,400 on the map. We settled at 23,398, one point away from it. I said maybe nothing to trade. The straddle went from 210 to 208. It moved hardly anything. So what happened, and what happens today? That is the main question. The max pain currently is at 23,450. It was 23,500 on Thursday, so it came down 50 points on Friday. The spot settled at 23,398, which is 51 points below the magnet. The PCR is at 1.05. On Thursday it was 0.640. Total put open interest stands at 17.91 crore against 16.99 crore of calls. So calls were cut by 2.58 crore over the day and puts were added almost 5.42 crore. So to be honest about where the cut came from. Most of the cut came from the far strikes. That was housekeeping. The far out of the money strikes went into unwinding, 25,000 and above, which always happens in expiry week. So look inside 22,900 to 23,900, near the money. Calls added 42 lakh, puts added 2.61 crore, six to one in favour of puts. The near money put call ratio is 1.217. That is the writers swapping sides on the second last day. So 23,300 is the new both sides strike. The biggest put add on the whole board, 76 lakh at 23,300, and the second biggest call add, 18.47 lakh at the same stri…

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Verdict: 1.5/51 HIT, 1 MECH, 4 MISSGraded next morning against NSE settlementFull track record →

How the grade landed

Graded Wed 16 Sep against the Tue settlement 23,118.60, and graded hard by TK himself. Almost every level was wrong. The open came near 23,576 against a called 40 to 90 point gap, nearly double, and 120 points above the 23,450 magnet the plan said we would open on. Support at 23,400 and 23,300 both broke easily. The band of 23,150 to 23,650 was taken out at the low. And the 180 points of implied move left after the gap met an actual range of almost 470. The settle was also the low, so there were no buyers at the end. What survives is the mechanism rather than the call: max pain recomputed from the settlement file was 23,200, the settle landed 80 points from it, and the magnet walked 300 points intraday before pinning inside 32, exactly as the Sensex did on 11 September. The error was using a four day old snapshot on an expiry day, against a rule TK had already written down. One and a half out of five.