Season 2, Episode 125 | 2026-09-16
Breadth Broke To 0.164, And The Only Bid Left Was IT
I got yesterday wrong and it cost money. That comes first.Graded one and a half out of five. I said we would open 23,440 to 23,490 and we opened 23,576, nearly double the gap.
Cold Open | I Was Reading The Old One
Yesterday the magnet moved 300 points during the session and I was reading the old one. The iron fly I gave you hit the max loss.
The Grade | One And A Half Out Of Five
One and a half out of five. That is what I want to give for yesterday's episode. We opened near 23,576, nearly double the gap I gave you. I said we open on the magnet at 23,450 to 23,500, and we opened 120 points above it. I said the support was at 23,400 and 23,300, and both broke easily. I said the band was 23,150 to 23,650, and the low took out the band. I said there were 180 points of implied move left after the gap, and the actual range on the day was almost 470. We settled at 23,118 and that was also the low of the day. So no buyers at the end.
The Useful Part | I Had Written It Down And Did Not Apply It
Here is the part that is actually useful, because I had written it down and did not apply it. Max pain on Friday's file was 23,450 and I built a call on it. Recompute max pain from the settlement itself, and it is 23,200 right now. We settled at 23,118, that is roughly 80 points from the magnet and 331 from the one I quoted. The pin did not fail. The magnet walked 300 points during the session and then pinned inside 32 points, which is exactly what I told you the Sensex did on the 11th. The mechanism was right. The snapshot was four days old on an expiry day. The only max pain that matters is …
Breadth Did Not Weaken, It Broke
On the tape, breadth did not weaken, it broke completely. There were only 371 advances against 2,263 declines, an advance decline of 0.164, against 0.56, 0.56 and 0.58 in the previous three sessions. That is fewer than one stock in seven. So seven stocks fell against one stock that rose. And the entire advance list was one sector. HCL Tech was up 3.95 percent, Infosys 3.79, Mphasis 3.62, TCS 2.28, Tech Mahindra 2.26. Seven of the top eight gainers are IT, and Nifty IT was up 2.19 percent on a day the index fell 1.19 percent. On the screener, IT is now the only equity index not sitting on a str…
The New Board | A 200 Point Box We Are Sitting Under
The new board, the 22nd, has a max pain at 23,350, which is 231 points above the spot, and a PCR of around 0.65. Calls were added almost 5.73 crore against 3.12 crore of puts, nearly two to one, the other way from the board that just died. 23,400 is the resistance with the biggest call add on the board, 42 lakh, and the heaviest near the money call at 63 lakh. 23,200 is the mirror, with the biggest put add and 46 lakh puts sitting over there. So the board is pricing a 200 point box between 23,200 and 23,400, and we are sitting 81 points under that box.
Three Mechanics In Three Sessions
The basis has changed mechanics for the third time in three sessions. It went to 105 from 87, and the futures open interest rose by 1 lakh 6,015 shares. Rising basis on rising open interest is fresh buying of the premium. So that is long unwinding, then short covering, and now fresh buying, three sessions running. And it happened on a day the index fell 1.19 percent with the worst breadth of the run. Somebody paid up for the future on a day the cash market had not bid at all. On the positioning, the foreign book was right all along: short 2.91 lakh futures, short 3.13 lakh calls, long 6.79 lak…
The Plan | Do Not Pin A Structure To Yesterday's Magnet
The Sensex expires tomorrow and it is worth watching. It settled at 74,003, down 778 points, after opening 588 points above Friday's close. High to close was 1,432 points. Max pain for tomorrow is 74,500, almost 496 points above the spot, and the PCR fell to 0.698 from 1.19, so both boards swapped sides in the opposite direction. And there is no Sensex future at all for that expiry: the 17th is an options only expiry, the nearest future is 24 September, so the contango is at plus 275 points. Overnight, GIFT is at 23,217, up 15, so flat. Asia is quiet, America fell a sixth straight session, Bre…
Highlights
- TK graded his own previous episode 1.5 out of 5, the lowest of the run
- The open came near 23,576, nearly double the gap given
- The magnet at 23,450 to 23,500 was overshot by 120 points at the open
- Support at 23,400 and 23,300 both broke easily
- The low took out the stated band of 23,150 to 23,650
- 180 points of implied move were called, the actual range was almost 470
- Settled 23,118, which was also the low: no buyers at the end
- Max pain recomputed from the settlement file is 23,200, not Friday's 23,450
- The settle landed 80 points from the live magnet and 331 from the quoted one
- The pin did not fail: the magnet walked 300 points then pinned inside 32
- Exactly what the Sensex did on 11 September, so the mechanism held
- The snapshot was four days old on an expiry day
- Breadth broke: 371 advances against 2,263 declines, A/D 0.164
- Against 0.56, 0.56 and 0.58 in the previous three sessions
- The entire advance list was IT: HCL Tech 3.95, Infosys 3.79, Mphasis 3.62
- Seven of the top eight gainers were IT while the index fell 1.19 percent
- IT is the only equity index not on a strong sell in the screener
- New board max pain 23,350, PCR around 0.65, calls added nearly two to one
- A 200 point box between 23,200 and 23,400, with spot 81 points under it
- Basis changed mechanics a third time: 87 to 105 on rising open interest
- Long unwinding, then short covering, now fresh buying, three sessions running
- FII short 2.91 lakh futures and 3.13 lakh calls, long 6.79 lakh puts, and it got paid
- FIIs sold 2,977 crore of cash, the biggest single day sell of the run
- Plan on record: reclaim 23,200 or see 23,000, and recompute the magnet every morning
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the magnet moved 300 points during the session and I was reading the old one. The iron fly I gave you hit the max loss. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 125. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So one and a half out of five. That is what I want to give for yesterday's episode. We opened near 23,576, nearly double the gap I gave you. I said we open on the magnet at 23,450 to 23,500, and we opened 120 points above it. I said the support was at 23,400 and 23,300, and both broke easily. I said the band was 23,150 to 23,650, and the low took out the band. I said there were 180 points of implied move left after the gap, and the actual range on the day was almost 470. We settled at 23,118 and that was also the low of the day. So no buyers at the end. So here is the part that is actually useful, because I had written it down and did not apply it. Max pain on Friday's file was 23,450 and I built a call on it. Recompute max pain from the settlement itself, and it is 23,200 right now. We settled at 23,118, that is roughly 80 points from the magnet and 331 from the one I quoted. The pin did not fail. The magnet walked 300 points during the session and then pinned inside 32 points, which is exactly what I told you the Sensex did on the 11th. The mechanism was right. The snapshot was four days old on an expiry day. The only max pain that matters is the one on the board that morning. On the tape, breadth did not weaken, it broke completely. There were only 371 advances against 2,263 declines, an advance decline of 0.164, against 0.56, 0.56 and 0.58 in the previous three sessions. That is fewer than one stock in seven. So seven stocks fell against one stock that rose. And the entire advance list was one sector. HCL Tech was up 3.95 percent, Infosys 3.79, Mphasis 3.62, TCS 2.28, Tech Mahindra 2.26. Seven of the top eight gainers are IT, and Nifty IT was up 2.19 percent on a day the index fell 1.19 percent. On the screener, IT…
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