Model, not market data

With fair odds, risking more of the account on each trade raises the chance of ruin

Model, not market data. With fair odds, risking more of the account on each trade raises the chance of ruinRisk 2% a trade 4.3%; Risk 5% a trade 50.8%; Risk 10% a trade 84.8%; Risk 20% a trade 98.0%.Paths that hit the ruin level, percent of 2,000Risk 2% a trade4.3%Risk 5% a trade50.8%Risk 10% a trade84.8%Risk 20% a trade98.0%
Share of simulated paths that fall to half the starting account within two hundred and fifty trades, for four sizes of risk per trade. A coin with an even payoff, so the chart shows position size alone. Inputs: win rate 50%, average win 1.00 times the average loss, 2% of the account risked on each trade, ruin at a 50% loss of the starting account, 250 trades, 2,000 simulated paths, seed 1. Source: RupeeCase model, seeded simulation. As of 16 Oct 2026.

A buyer pays the premium in full at the start. One NIFTY lot is 65 units, so the premium is the option price times 65. The most a buyer can lose is that premium, and nothing is owed beyond it.

A seller is different. Selling an option brings premium in, but margin is collected against what the position could lose. It covers the exposure, not only the premium received. That margin is usually larger than the premium, and on expiry day an extra margin applies to short index options.

Capital is also a loss budget. The chart is a model with fair odds, not market data. It shows how often a path with a coin's odds falls to half the starting account within two hundred and fifty trades, for four sizes of risk per trade. The bigger the share of the account at risk on each trade, the more paths end in ruin, even at fair odds.

So the answer depends on the trade. For a buyer it is the premium. For a seller it is the margin, plus room for losses bigger than the premium, and room for several of them in a row. Claims of ten times leverage on a small account usually leave that room out.

Before you trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss. SEBI's study "Profitability of Individual Traders in the Equity Derivatives Segment (FY25 to FY26)" (August 2026) found that 87.7% of individual traders in equity F&O made net losses in FY26, with aggregate net losses of Rs 91,685 crore. Read the SEBI study