The near month future sat above the index on almost every session in the record
Hold the Nifty basket until expiry and you pay interest on the money, while the stocks pay dividends in that window. The fair price of the future is the spot plus the interest for the days left, less the dividends that go ex before expiry. That net is the cost of carry. The chart shows the gap between the near month future and the index close, in points, over the record.
In the record the future sat above the index on almost every session. That is the usual shape: the interest for the time left is larger than the dividends. The gap is in points, so the same rate gives more points when the index is at a higher level.
The gap shrinks when dividends are due. Many index companies pay in a cluster of months, and a dividend that goes ex before expiry comes out of the future's price. The lowest point in the record was 3 Aug 2026, when the near future closed below the index. Dividend season can pull the gap down, but the record alone does not show the cause of any one day.
A premium is not a signal about direction. It is carry at work. Interest, dividends and demand for the future all move the basis, and the figure does not say which one moved it.
The deeper pages listed below cover the basis, the carry and the rollover in more detail.
Before you trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss. SEBI's study "Profitability of Individual Traders in the Equity Derivatives Segment (FY25 to FY26)" (August 2026) found that 87.7% of individual traders in equity F&O made net losses in FY26, with aggregate net losses of Rs 91,685 crore. Read the SEBI study