Iron condor, iron fly and butterfly on Nifty: setup and "success rate"?
An iron condor is a short strangle with bought wings further out, so its profit is capped at the premium kept and its loss is capped at the width of the wings less that premium. A success rate counts how often a trade ends in profit and says nothing about how large the losses are, so it cannot show whether the condor pays after costs.
Intermediate
Data as of 10 Jun 2026
Reviewed 16 Oct 2026
Trap check
rupeecase.com/q/iron-condor-nifty
An iron condor's profit is capped at the premium kept, and its loss is capped by the wings
Profit and loss at expiry for one lot of an iron condor, four legs priced at the 10 Jun 2026 settle prices, expiry 30 Jun 2026. A dated example of the payoff shape, not a set-up to trade. Source: NSE end of day data, computed by RupeeCase. As of 10 Jun 2026.
Take the NIFTY chain of 10 Jun 2026, expiry 30 Jun 2026. An iron condor on it has four legs. Two are sold, a put below the index and a call above it. Two are bought further out, and they cap the loss.
The chart is one lot at expiry, on that day's settle prices. It shows a flat top where all four legs expire worthless, a capped loss outside the wings, and two breakevens. It is a dated example of the payoff shape, not a set-up to trade. In this example the cap on the profit is larger than the cap on the loss. That alone says nothing about the odds, because the premium is the price of the chance that the index runs past the sold strikes.
The success rate is the share of expiries that end between the breakevens. It counts a profit of a few rupees as one win and the capped loss as one loss, whatever their size, so it cannot show whether the condor pays. Expectancy can: the win rate times the average win, less the loss rate times the average loss, less costs.
Costs come on top. Each sold leg pays STT on its premium, and every entry and exit pays brokerage and exchange charges. A success rate that leaves these out does not test the trade.
Iron flies and butterflies use the same idea with the wings closer in. They change the premium, the breakevens and the size of the capped loss. They do not change the test. Judge any of them by expectancy after costs, across many dated expiries, not by how often they win.
Before you trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss. SEBI's study "Profitability of Individual Traders in the Equity Derivatives Segment (FY25 to FY26)" (August 2026) found that 87.7% of individual traders in equity F&O made net losses in FY26, with aggregate net losses of Rs 91,685 crore. Read the SEBI study
Iron condor, iron fly and butterfly on Nifty: setup and "success rate"?
An iron condor is a short strangle with bought wings further out, so its profit is capped at the premium kept and its loss is capped at the width of the wings less that premium. A success rate counts how often a trade ends in profit and says nothing about how large the losses are, so it cannot show whether the condor pays after costs. Not shown. The school holds no tested result for this setup, and a success rate alone gives no expectancy. Judge the condor by its average result after costs, over many dated expiries.
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Education only, not investment advice, a research report or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. RupeeCase (QC Alpha Technologies Pvt Ltd) is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Contracts and prices shown are for illustration only, come from NSE end of day files at least 30 days old, and are not recommendatory. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss.
