Model, not market data

A seller of one call wins most weeks, and the losing weeks cost several times the premium

Model, not market data. A seller of one call wins most weeks, and the losing weeks cost several times the premiumProfit: 75 weeks in 100 7,95,727; Loss, all 25 weeks in 100 −7,98,844; of which up to 3x premium −2,27,755; of which 3 to 10x premium −5,27,429; of which over 10x premium −43,659.Per 100 weeks, one lot, before costs; L is lakhProfit: 75 weeksin 100+7.96LLoss, all 25weeks in 100−7.99Lof which up to 3xpremium−2.28Lof which 3 to 10xpremium−5.27Lof which over 10xpremium−0.44L
Model, not market data: one seller of one call on the 10 Jun 2026 chain, sold at its settle price and priced with its own implied volatility, repeated one hundred times. Inputs: one lot of 65 units of the Nifty 23,600 call sold at its settlement premium of Rs 171.00 a unit on 10 Jun 2026, expiry 30 Jun 2026; the forward 23,240.10 and the option's own implied volatility 14.62% over 20 calendar days; the index at expiry follows a lognormal curve around the forward; 100 weeks; before costs and interest. Source: RupeeCase model, inputs from NSE end of day data. As of 10 Jun 2026.

NSE publishes open interest by participant category each day for index derivatives. The four groups are Client, DII, FII and Pro, where Pro means proprietary desks. The file counts contracts in each category for futures and for calls and puts, long and short. It does not name a market maker, and it does not say who wrote a given option.

Each group is a mix. The Client line holds individual and other non institutional positions. The FII line mixes directional bets, hedges and arbitrage. The Pro line mixes market making, arbitrage and proprietary bets. Reading one group as a single kind of seller misreads the file.

A market maker quotes both sides of a price and earns from the spread, and it hedges the risk it takes on. An option seller who is not a market maker takes a view on the index or on volatility. The two are different trades, and the public file does not separate them.

The chart is a model, not market data. It takes one seller of one call on the 10 Jun 2026 chain, sold at its settle price and priced with its own implied volatility, and repeats the same sale one hundred times, which the chart counts as weeks. The seller wins in about three weeks out of four. The losing weeks are fewer, but each costs several times the premium, and in this model the gains and losses come out about equal in total, because the option is priced fair.

For a view of individual traders by their results, the SEBI Aug 2026 study is the source. Its figures count net outcomes, not sides.

Before you trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss. SEBI's study "Profitability of Individual Traders in the Equity Derivatives Segment (FY25 to FY26)" (August 2026) found that 87.7% of individual traders in equity F&O made net losses in FY26, with aggregate net losses of Rs 91,685 crore. Read the SEBI study