How to read it
The inputs describe a trade, not a market
Win rate and payoff ratio (average win over average loss) set the edge: win rate times payoff, minus the loss rate, in units of the amount risked, written R. A high win rate with a small payoff can have no edge at all.
Size decides the outcome
Each trade risks a fixed share of the current account. The second chart keeps the odds and changes only that share, which is where most of the chance of ruin comes from.
Ruin is a level you choose
Pick the loss that counts as ruin, measured from the starting account or from the highest point so far (a drawdown). A path that touches it stops there.
Kelly
The Kelly fraction is the share of the account that maximises long run growth if the odds are known exactly. They never are, and full Kelly rides deep drawdowns, so it is shown as a reference line, not as a goal. At odds with no edge it is zero or below.
Seeded
The same inputs and seed always give the same answer. Change the seed to see the sampling noise, which is the plus or minus figure. Sizing is taught in the position sizing module and the Kelly module.
What it leaves out
The simulation assumes every trade is independent with the same odds. Real trades cluster, odds drift, losses can gap past a stop, and costs cut the edge. It cannot say which side of SEBI's finding a strategy sits on.