The top open interest strike was nearer the settlement than the spot on three of six near expiries and further on the other three
The claim has two parts. Option writers hedge, and that hedging can make a stock price gather near strikes at expiry. The academic work listed in the sources documents that pattern for US stocks. The claim that a Nifty expiry settles at the strike with the most open interest is a different and narrower test, and this page runs that test.
The chart scores six near expiries. For each, it takes the strike with the most call plus put open interest on a chain one to six sessions before expiry, then compares the settlement with that strike and with the spot on the chain date. Bars above zero mean the settlement was nearer the strike with the most open interest. Three of the six bars are above zero and three are below.
As a rough yardstick, a fair coin gives three or more heads in six about two times in three, so this record is too thin to call either way. The gaps are wide as well: on 10 Feb 2026 the settlement landed far above the top open interest strike, not near it.
Open interest is measured once a day, at the close, and positions roll to later expiries before settlement day. A strike that carried the most open interest a week out may hold little on expiry day. That is a reason to check the input on the open interest page before reading a strike as a level.
Before you trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss. SEBI's study "Profitability of Individual Traders in the Equity Derivatives Segment (FY25 to FY26)" (August 2026) found that 87.7% of individual traders in equity F&O made net losses in FY26, with aggregate net losses of Rs 91,685 crore. Read the SEBI study