On Monday 29 Jun 2026, one session before the 30 Jun expiry, the max pain strike of the Nifty chain was 24,000. The index settled the next day at 23,865.75, 134.25 points away. The previous close, 23,946.25, was 80.50 points away. A plain "tomorrow looks like today" beat max pain that day. One day proves nothing, so this lesson scores every Nifty expiry in the school's files that has a chain and a settlement, with the rule fixed before any of them is scored. Every figure comes from NSE end of day files, so nothing here is live and nothing is a view on where the index goes next.

3By the end you can

  1. Compute max pain from open interest, strike by strike, and say what the sum assumes.
  2. Test a forecast against a plain baseline, with the rule fixed before any scoring.
  3. Say what a thin sample can and cannot show, using the coin comparison.
The RupeeCase terminal on sample data: Correlation: how closely did two lines move together?
Watch in the terminal: how closely did two lines move together? A short tutorial on sample data.

The idea, plainly

Max pain is a sum over the chain. Pick a level where the index might settle. At that level every option in the money pays its holder the distance between the level and the strike. Multiply by open interest, add up over all the calls and puts, and you have the total the writers would pay the buyers. Do it for every level. The level with the smallest total is max pain. The name says buyers feel the pain, since they collect least there. On a real chain open interest is in units, so one point of payout on one unit is one rupee, and the totals run into crores of rupees.

Index settles atCalls payPuts payTotal
8088
9336
10808
  • Writers can steer the index to their level.
  • All open interest is buyers against writers, when much of it is hedges and spreads, as the open interest module explains.
  • The snapshot stays true until expiry, when open interest keeps changing.
Read 2 more paragraphs, 105 words

Try it on a toy chain, not market data: three strikes called 8, 9 and 10, with open interest in lots. Calls at 8: 3 lots and at 9: 2 lots. Puts at 9: 2 lots and at 10: 3 lots. A payout of one is one point on one lot.

The total is lowest at 9, so 9 is max pain. The recipe uses open interest and nothing else: no prices, no time left, no volatility. The story behind it says writers want to pay least, so the index drifts there. That story assumes three things, and none of them comes from the sum.

Worked example: ten Nifty expiries

Start with one chain. On 10 Jun 2026 the weekly expiring 16 Jun had its open interest as below. The sum over it gives the payout curve under it, with its lowest bar at 23,300.

Open interest by strike is the only input to max pain

Open interest by strike for the 16 Jun 2026 weekly expiry on 10 Jun 2026, calls and puts, with the day before markedOpen interest at 19 strikes from 22,300 to 24,100. Call open interest peaks at 73.6L at the 24,000 strike and put open interest peaks at 58.2L at the 22,500 strike. Bars show the earlier day as well: a solid extension means added, a dashed outline means removed.Open interest in units, lakh (L) and crore (Cr)PutsCallsAdded since the day beforeRemovedPut OIStrikeCall OI22,30022,40022,50058.2L22,60022,70022,80022,90023,00023,10023,20049.6LSpot 23,21523,30023,40023,50065.5L23,60023,70023,80023,90024,00073.6L24,100
Nifty chain of 10 Jun 2026 for the 16 Jun weekly expiry, at every hundred point strike, with the day before marked. The index closed at 23,214.95 that day. Source: NSE end of day data, computed by RupeeCase. As of 10 Jun 2026.

The payout to buyers is lowest at the 23,300 strike, which is max pain

Total payout to option buyers by settlement level for the 16 Jun 2026 weekly expiry, lowest at 23,30023,100 712; 23,200 540; 23,300 482; 23,400 556; 23,500 745.Payout to option buyers at expiry, Rs crore23,100712 Cr23,200540 Cr23,300482 Cr23,400556 Cr23,500745 Cr
Total payout to call and put buyers if the index settled at each level, from open interest in units on 10 Jun 2026. The lowest bar is max pain. Source: NSE end of day data, computed by RupeeCase. As of 10 Jun 2026.

The index then settled at 23,989.15 on 16 Jun. Max pain was 689.15 points away and the index close of 10 Jun was 774.20 away. Max pain was nearer, and still far.

  • Chain. The last chain in the files before each expiry.
  • Baseline. The previous close, the index close on the chain date.
  • Score. Which of the two was nearer to the settlement. Ties are counted apart.
  • Settlement. The index close on expiry day, which is the rule for every expiry here. All of them fall before 3 Aug 2026, when a closing auction began to set that close. SEBI's circular of 15 Oct 2026 changes the method from 7 Dec 2026, so later expiries need a fresh test.
  • Split. Chains up to six sessions out, and chains further out, kept apart.
ExpiryMax painPrevious closeSettled at
3 Feb 202625,05025,088.4025,727.55
10 Feb 202625,10025,088.4025,935.15
16 Jun 202623,30023,214.9523,989.15
23 Jun 202623,90023,989.1523,824.10
30 Jun 202624,00023,946.2523,865.75
7 Jul 202624,00023,946.2524,398.70

Max pain was nearer on four of six near expiries, a score a fair coin matches about one time in three

Points by which max pain was nearer the settlement than the previous close on six near Nifty expiries: four positive and two negative3 Feb 2026 −38.40; 10 Feb 2026 11.60; 16 Jun 2026 85.05; 23 Jun 2026 89.15; 30 Jun 2026 −53.75; 7 Jul 2026 53.75.Points; above zero, max pain was nearer3 Feb 2026−38.4010 Feb 202611.6016 Jun 202685.0523 Jun 202689.1530 Jun 2026−53.757 Jul 202653.75
Six expiries with a chain up to six sessions out. Above zero, max pain was nearer the settlement than the previous close. The sample is too small to count. Source: NSE end of day data, computed by RupeeCase. As of 7 Jul 2026.
Read 4 more paragraphs, 267 words

Now the test. A forecast has to beat a plain one, because the plain one costs nothing to produce. If max pain cannot beat it, the chain adds no information. So the rule is fixed first.

Max pain was nearer on four of six, the previous close on two. Count the misses as well as the hits. Four or more of six is what a fair coin gives about one time in three. Further out, with four expiries, the split was two and two. On 2 Feb 2026 the 30 Mar chain had max pain at 26,000, and the index settled 3,668.60 points under it. Seven earlier expiries cannot be scored at all, because the index close file starts on 1 Jul 2025.

Size matters as much as count. Max pain's four wins were by 11.60, 85.05, 89.15 and 53.75 points. The previous close's two wins were by 38.40 and 53.75. Small margins. On the six near expiries, max pain missed the settlement by 468 points and the previous close by 493. The gap between them, 25 points, is 0.1% of the index. In three of its four wins it was still hundreds of points off.

Academic work on US stocks finds that closing prices cluster at option strikes on expiry dates. It ties the effect to hedging by option market makers and to trading by firms' own desks. That is about strikes in general, on single stocks. It is not about the one strike a max pain sum picks, and it is not a test of max pain on an index.

The common mistake

The claim: Max pain is where the index gets pulled on expiry, so the chain tells you where it will close. A calculation that looks like a mechanism feels like a forecast. Here it did not beat "tomorrow looks like today" by a margin a coin could not match, and in three of its four wins it was still hundreds of points off. The verdict is not shown, which is not the same as disproved. What would change it: thirty or more expiries, the same rule, and a clear win over the previous close. The test starts again for expiries from 7 Dec 2026. The question page gives the short answer.

Key takeaways

  • Max pain is the level where option buyers would collect least, from open interest alone.
  • The sum uses no prices, no time left and no volatility.
  • A forecast has to beat a plain one: the previous close.
  • Max pain beat the previous close on four of six near expiries.
  • On average both missed the settlement by almost the same distance.
  • The settlement method changes on 7 Dec 2026, so the test starts again.

2 terms this section turns on

2 terms this section turns on2 terms this section turns on. Max pain: The settlement level at which the total payout to option buyers, worked out from open interest alone, is smallest. Previous close: The index close on the chain date. Used here as the plainest forecast: the index stays where it closed.Max painThe settlement level at which the total payoutto option buyers, worked out from openinterest alone, is smallest.Previous closeThe index close on the chain date. Used hereas the plainest forecast: the index stayswhere it closed.
From the module glossary; every term is in the Learn glossary too. Source: Module 15.4, Max pain: the calculation and a Nifty test.

Before you trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss. SEBI's study "Profitability of Individual Traders in the Equity Derivatives Segment (FY25 to FY26)" (August 2026) found that 87.7% of individual traders in equity F&O made net losses in FY26, with aggregate net losses of Rs 91,685 crore. Read the SEBI study