Season 2, Episode 5 | 2026-03-20
The 23000 Test | Clients Unwind, VWAP Magnet
Crude is pulling back from $111 to $105 | the inflation pressure that
Market Overview
Yesterday Nifty lost 687 points. This morning, GIFT Nifty is up 101. Today is Friday | monthly close. The VWAP magnets are set. Here's what the data says about where this goes. India's pre-market edge. Five minutes. Every trading day. I'm Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 5. Let's go. GIFT Nifty flipped green overnight | +101 pts. Two days of selling, but this morning the market is saying the panic is temporary. A technical bounce is live. Nifty fell 687 points in two days. This morning GIFT Nifty is up 101. Does 23,000 hold | and where does the bounce go?
F&O Positioning
"Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing | the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look."
Options & GEX Analysis
"That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference | and that difference is your edge." The data: FIIs sold ₹7,558 crores in cash yesterday and added back to futures shorts (now -2,28,952 contracts). VIX spiked 21% to 22.74. But this morning Dow futures are up 519 pts and Brent crude is pulling back from $111 to $105 | the inflation pressure that triggered Thursday's fall is easing.
Commodities & FX
"You don't need more information. You need the right information | here's what matters today."
Trading Plan & Levels
23,000 held | 6.75 lakh puts protected that level. The market's strongest natural support did its job. As long as it holds, the bias is towards recovery. Clients are still massively long. That means unwinding pressure is real today | especially in the first 30 minutes. Don't chase the gap up. Wait for the first wave to settle. My targets for today: upside 23,381 (weekly VWAP zone). Lower end 22,800 should hold. Range trade between these two levels is the high probability outcome on a Friday monthly close. The bigger picture: monthly VWAP at 24,000 is the gravitational pull for March expiry on …
RupeeCase Update
RupeeCase quant fund outperformed by +0.98% alpha yesterday | even on the worst day. ONGC was the only green stock. Rebalance on 23 March at 23,000. Track it at rupeecase.com. → RupeeCase: rupeecase.com | @TanmayKurtkoti | #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty23000 #VWAP #MonthlyClose #QCAlpha
Highlights
- Crude is pulling back from $111 to $105 | the inflation pressure that
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