Season 2, Episode 26 | 2026-04-24

24,250 Is The Line. Reliance Decides The Rest

Yesterday 24,200 was the pin day. It held for six hours. Then somebody pulled the floor out and we closed at 24,173. Twenty-seven points below the line both writers were defending. That wasn't a break from conviction.

Cold Open | The Pin That Gave Up

Yesterday we said 24,200 was the pin day. It held for six hours. Then in the last seventy minutes, somebody pulled the floor out and we closed at 24,173. Twenty-seven points below the line both writers were defending. That is not a pin. That is a pin giving up. And the funny part, nobody was even trying to break it. The tape just ran out of reasons to stay at 24,200. GIFT Nifty 24,247 pre-open, plus ninety points. The one number I am watching today is 24,250. Hold above, we have a trade. Lose it, we don't.

Overnight Tape | Infy, Oil, US Software

Three things happened while you were sleeping. Infosys Q4 | headline beat. Profit +21% YoY at 8500 Cr. Revenue +13.4% at 46,000 Cr. 500% dividend, 25 rupees per share. Then they cut FY27 guidance to 1.5 to 3.5% constant currency. ADR closed down almost 6% after hours. IT basket was already Strong Sell going in. Don't be long IT today. Brent at 106, sixth straight session higher. Trump told Navy to engage anything laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. That is not a headline, that is a policy. WTI at 97, MCX crude at 9082. US closed red but polite. Dow -98 futures. S&P -0.41. Nasdaq -0.89. IBM -…

Positioning | Pro Long Gamma, FII Stacked Short, Client Trapped

Most divergent setup in two weeks. Pro flipped flat to long on futures, added ~9000 contracts. Trimmed long calls by 32,000. Doubled long puts, added 1,14,000 in a single session. That is not direction. That is a long gamma book. Somebody willing to pay for the breakage in either direction. FII stacked bearish on every leg. Futures net -1,90,000, added 7600 shorts. Calls net -2,46,000, added 38,000 more shorts. Puts net +3,75,000, bought 29,000 more long puts. Three-lane conviction short. Client is the trap. Long 1,86,000 calls (71,000 added yesterday). Short 6,61,000 puts (1,42,000 fresh). Ov…

Levels | 24,250 Is The Line, IV Expanded 10.3%

Nifty 28 Apr monthly straddle 374 rupees. 1SD = 468 points. Market is pricing 24,000 to 24,600 by Tuesday expiry. India VIX 18.54 (+1.31%). 28 Apr IV 17.60, up 10.3% on a down day. IV expanding into weakness means somebody is paying for protection. That somebody is Pro with 1,14,000 fresh puts. OI walls | 24,500 call wall 10.65 million, hardest ceiling in this cycle, +2.85M added yesterday. 24,000 put floor 69 lakh, but trimmed 7.80 lakh (floor real but not ironclad). 24,300 call short buildup. 24,200 is the broken pin. 24,150 is the new pivot. Above 24,250 | pin that broke yesterday becomes f…

Sectors | Pharma Lead, IT Dead, Banks Soft

CNXPHARMA +2.36% yesterday, rank one. Defensive bid + weak rupee = tailwind for exporters. Stay with pharma exporters. CNXIT -3.89%. Infy will add to drag today. Guidance cut + ADR -6 is a de-rating, not a one-session story. Stay away. Bank Nifty -1.43. Private banks -1.31. Finance -1.42. If Reliance disappoints, Bank Nifty is where you hedge, not where you buy. Metals +1.45. Power +2.37. FMCG +1.41. Classic defensive rotation when the index is uncertain. Reliance is the event. Axis Bank Q4 today. Reliance weighted 8% of Nifty | a 2% move is 16 bps direct contribution to the index before 49 ot…

Education | Event-Weight Mechanics

Nifty 50 is free-float market-cap weighted. Reliance 8%, HDFC Bank ~14%, ICICI ~8%. Top three carry roughly 30% of the index. Reliance moving 3% is roughly 25 bps of direct index contribution, before HDFC reacts, before ICICI reacts, before Infy finds a floor. It does not stop there. A big RIL move changes the risk tone. Surprise up | Bank Nifty leads short covering. Miss | Bank Nifty leads the cascade. Correlated names trade off the lead name. You are not just pricing RIL Q4. You are pricing whether a cautious market becomes brave or breaks. That is why on event days with concentrated weights…

Today's Plan | Hedge Everything, No Naked

Bias | Buy dips with hedge. Operative word is hedge. IV 17.6 is cheap vs the 22 range into Tuesday expiry. You can afford protection, you should own protection. Above 24,250 holding first hour | target 24,400, stretch 24,500. 24,500 is a fade level (10.65M call wall), not a breakout level. Take profit, don't chase. Lose 24,250 in first 30 minutes | flat and watching, not shorting. Pro is long gamma, if they add to the put side intraday you don't want to be the short they pull the trade out of. Wait for 24,150 to test. Holds | buy stop 24,100. Breaks | walk away. Reliance specific | gap +2% = f…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. Yesterday we said 24200 was the pin day. It held for six hours. Then in the last seventy minutes, somebody pulled the floor out and we closed at 24173. Twenty-seven points below the line both writers were defending. That's not a pin. That's a pin giving up. And the funny part, nobody was even trying to break it. The tape just ran out of reasons to stay at 24200. This morning, GIFT Nifty is trading at 24247, plus ninety points. And the one number I'm watching today is 24250. If we hold above it, we have a trade. If we lose it, we don't. Welcome to The Tanmay Edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. This is Friday, 24th April. Let's go. So three things happened while you were sleeping guys. One. Infosys printed Q4 results last evening. The headline is a beat. Profit is up 21% year on year at 8500 crore. Revenue is up 13.4% at 46000 crore. 500% dividend is declared, that is 25 rupees per share. Sounds great, right? But then they cut FY27 guidance to 1.5 to 3.5% constant currency. And that is the number the street actually priced. The ADR closed down almost 6% after hours. IT basket was already in Strong Sell going in. This confirms it. Don't be long IT today. Two. Oil didn't blink. Brent is at $106, sixth straight session higher. Trump told the Navy to engage anything laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. That's not a headline, that's a policy. And the oil market is treating it like one. WTI trading at $97. MCX crude at 9082. Slight pullback on MCX, but the international is the tell and the international is bullish. Three. The US closed red but polite. Dow down 98 on futures. S&P down 0.41. Nasdaq down 0.89. What actually moved was software. IBM dropped 8. ServiceNow dropped 18. AI disruption narrative hitting legacy software. That's a signal, not noise. And it flows into why Infy guidance read cold. Europe was mixed yesterday. Asia this morning is a wide split. Nikkei plus 344. Taiwan Weighted up almost 3%, that's huge. Hang Seng down half a percent. KOSP…

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