Season 2, Episode 76 | 2026-07-08

24,400 Held To The Point. Crude Broke The Calm. War is back. TCS Decides Thursday

- One Sector Held The Whole Market Up. This Morning Crude Broke The Calm.- The Map Nailed 24,400. Now A Gap-Down Meets TCS And Sensex Expiry.- 19 Of 50 Went Up. IT Carried It Alone. The Bet Is On Tomorrow's TCS.

Cold Open | Settled 1.3 Points Off 24,400, Then The Calm Broke Overnight

Yesterday the market did something that looks like luck and is not. Nifty settled at 24,398.70. The level every options desk had defended all week was 24,400. We closed 1.3 points away from it. And the day before one of the biggest results of the season, a single sector woke up and carried the whole market on its back while everything else quietly bled. But wake up this morning and the picture has changed. GIFT Nifty is at 24,230, down two thirds of a percent, pointing at a gap down open below the 24,400 they spent all week defending. Crude is jumping, the world is turning risk off, and the ca…

Yesterday's Settle | A Gentle Snap After A Four Day Green Run

The official close: Nifty 24,398.70, down 31.65, about a tenth of a percent. That snapped a four day green run, and it snapped gently. The day traded in a band of just 182 points. The high was 24,530.90, so it reached up and touched the 24,500 ceiling, got rejected, and drifted back to settle almost exactly on 24,400. All week the map said 24,400 was the support and 24,500 the ceiling. We closed 1.3 points off 24,400. The map did not miss. On the eight calls we made, six landed. Sensex told the same story, 78,180.72, down 104, a quiet pinned expiry.

The One Sector That Mattered | IT Held It Up Alone Into TCS

Only 19 of the 50 Nifty names went up. On a day the index barely moved, IT rose 2.43 percent, and it rose alone. HCL Tech up 3.04 percent, Tech Mahindra up 2.86 percent, Infosys up 2.81 percent, TCS itself up 1.86 percent. That is the whole green column. Everything else leaned red. Realty down 1.58 percent, Metal down 1.10 percent, Pharma down 0.73 percent, Reliance down 1.12 percent, Larsen down 1.19 percent. Take IT out and this is a clearly red day. The timing is the point. IT had faded three straight sessions coming in, and TCS reports tomorrow. The day before the biggest IT result of the …

What The Desks Did | Pros Cautious, Foreigners Stopped Covering

Pro desks first, because they move first. Into Tuesday's expiry they had dropped their protection. Yesterday they did the opposite. They cut index futures almost to flat, net long just 5,435 contracts, and bought insurance back, net long 45,315 puts. The fast money stepped off the gas and put its seatbelt back on the night before the event. The foreign desk is still deeply net short the index at minus 2,38,838 contracts, but the pace tells the story. Their short went 2,56,900 to 2,50,767 to 2,41,279 to 2,38,838. The covering has almost stopped. Underneath, in single stock futures they are net …

The New Map | 24,400 Gravity, 24,500 Ceiling, 24,300 And 24,200 Support

Because yesterday was expiry, we have a fresh map for next week. The center of gravity is 24,400, right where we settled. Overhead, 24,500 is the ceiling and a heavy one. Traders piled on 51 lakh fresh calls there yesterday, the single biggest build anywhere on the board. Below us, 24,300 and 24,200 are the two support shelves, each holding about 28 lakh puts and building. The gear change is 24,400. Above it, moves get dampened and the market tends to pin. Below it, moves speed up and pull toward 24,300. The options are pricing a swing of about 270 points for the week, an expected band roughly…

This Morning's Overlay | Crude At 76 And A Risk Off Globe

None of that map was built for what walked in overnight. Crude is up sharply, Brent back to 76 dollars, up about two and a half percent, as geopolitical tension pushes back into the tape. New York closed soft, Nasdaq off more than a percent, and Asia opened lower. Korea down hard, Japan only mildly red, Hong Kong actually green, so Asia is off its worst. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 24,230, below the 24,400 gear change and just under the 24,300 support shelf, with 24,200 sitting right beneath. The market may open already testing the levels that change its character. A jumpy crude and a ne…

The Real Test Is Tomorrow | Sensex Expiry And TCS In One Session

Everything today points at tomorrow. Thursday is a double event in one session, Sensex weekly expiry and TCS first quarter results on the same day. That is why yesterday's IT move matters so much. The entire rush into IT was a bet placed before the number. If TCS delivers, the bet pays and IT extends. If it disappoints, that same crowd unwinds it fast, and it drags. Wednesday, today, is the day you set your position, not the day you swing it.

POV And Plan | Trade The Edges, Stand Aside In The Middle

We are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 24,500, and if the selling has legs do not rule out a stretch to 24,000. This is a day you trade the edges, not the middle. On a push up into 24,400 to 24,500, sell the rise, and do not wait for the round number. Offer a touch under it, around 24,475 to 24,485, and you are filled before the crowd. On a flush down into 24,000 to 24,100, buy it, but bid just above the round figure, around 24,015 to 24,110, because the whole market is stacked on 24,000. The middle, 24,200 to 24,300, is no …

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. Yesterday the market did something that looks like luck and it is not. It settled at 24,399, and the level every option desk has been defending all week was 24,400. We settled one point away from it. And then, the day before one of the biggest results of the season, a single sector woke up and carried the entire market on its back while everything else was bleeding. But wake up this morning and the picture has changed completely. GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,230, down two-thirds of a percent, a gap down below 24,400 and 24,300 as well, the levels they spent all week defending. Crude is jumping, the world is turning risk off, and the calm we kept calling cheap is finally getting tested. This is not the quiet reset I expected. Tomorrow is still the real test. This is the turn. This is The Tanmay Edge. Good morning guys, it is Wednesday, 8th of July. One sector held the market up yesterday, and overnight crude and geopolitics stole the story back. So let's go. So the official close for yesterday: Nifty closed at 24,399, down 31 points, about a tenth of a percent. That snapped a four-day green run, and it snapped gently. The day traded in a band of just 182 points. The high was 24,530, so it reached up and touched the 24,500 resistance ceiling, got rejected, and drifted back down to settle almost exactly on 24,400, before a last 30-minute VWAP sell-off towards that 350 level. So here is the part worth sitting with. All week, the option chain said 24,400 was the support, the sellers of the puts would defend it, and 24,500 was the resistance. So we closed one point off 24,400. The map did not miss. That is yesterday's map graded, and I will give you the honest number once: on eight calls we made, six landed. Six out of eight. Sensex told the same story guys, 78,180, down 104 points, a quiet pinned day. Now the strange part: only 19 of the 50 names went up on a day the index barely moved. IT rose 2.43 percent, and it rose alone. HCL Tech up 3 perce…

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