Season 2, Episode 78 | 2026-07-10

Gap Up Over 24,000 Into The FII Call Supply. TCS Prints A 9.5 Billion Dollar Book. IT Decides Friday

Yesterday 24,000 was resistance and we got sold right there. This morning GIFT Nifty is at 24,133, a gap up of about 170 points straight over it. So the question flips from can we reach 24,000 to can we hold above it.

Cold Open | 24,000 Was Resistance, Now Can We Hold Above It

The news first. Yesterday 24,000 was the resistance. The market ran up, tagged it, and got sold right back to close 23,962. This morning GIFT Nifty is at 24,133, gapping about 170 points straight over the level that stopped us yesterday. So the question flips. It is no longer can we reach 24,000. It is can we hold above it, today and into next week. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 78. A news podcast with a twist, and today the twist is all in the positioning.

Yesterday The Tape | A Broad Green Day And A VIX Collapse

Nifty closed 23,962 up 0.34 percent, Sensex 76,741 up 0.31 percent. But the number that matters is India VIX. It collapsed almost 9 percent to 13.36 as Wednesday's crash fear came straight back out. It was a broad day. Realty led up 3.54 percent, Media up 2 percent, PSU Bank up 1.6, Midcaps up 1.4, Smallcaps up 1.8. Only two sectors closed red, Auto and IT. Hold that thought. IT was the single weakest sector on the board, down 0.30 percent, right into the biggest result of its quarter.

TCS Q1 | A Healthy Book At A Six Year Low Price

After the bell TCS reported. Profit 13,349 crore up almost 5 percent, revenue up 14 percent, a 9.5 billion dollar order book including a big AI deal with SKF, and AI revenue now running at 2.6 billion dollars a year. A 12 rupee dividend on top. The one soft spot was the margin, 24 percent, squeezed by the annual wage hike. So the most beaten down sector in the market printed a healthy number while sitting at a six year low price. That is the setup.

The Twist | What The Participant Book Actually Shows

On the surface this looks easy. Nasdaq up 1.3 percent, Nikkei up 2, our GIFT up, TCS beat. Gap up and go, right? Then look at the NSE participant data. FIIs sold just 533 crore of cash but stayed net short 2,66,251 index futures, barely covered from Wednesday's 2,68,586. At the same time they are net long 5,91,571 stock futures, holding 5,24,225 long puts, and short 2,56,228 calls. Long the stocks. Hedged on the index. Selling the calls overhead. That is not a desk chasing the market higher.

Who Is Buying | Domestic Money And Put Writers

The Pros are net long just 16,954 index futures with balanced call and put books, no conviction bet either way. The Clients are net long futures, long calls, and short 6,45,560 puts, writing the support under the market. Add the DIIs, who bought another 2058 crore of cash. The domestic money is doing the buying. So the twist is this. The bounce is real, but it is led by domestic buying and put writers while the FIIs sit short the index and sell the calls into the strength. The move up has a lid on it, and the FIIs are holding the lid.

The Levels | Resistance 24,200, Support 23,800, Flip 24,000

From the 14 July chain, the heaviest call open interest is 24,200 at almost 90 lakh, then 24,300 and 24,000. That 24,200 strike is where the FIIs parked their short calls. That is your resistance. The heaviest put open interest is 23,800 at about 66 lakh, then 24,000. That is your support. The level that decides the day is 24,000, the gamma flip. Above it gamma is positive and moves get dampened, the market grinds. Below it gamma is negative and moves get fast. The 14 July straddle is near 278 with front volatility crushed to 11.6 percent, so the weekend zone is roughly 23,800 to 24,200.

The Plan | Book Into Strength, Buy The 23,800 Test

We open near 24,100 to 24,130, straight into the 24,200 call supply. Hold above 24,000 and positive gamma grinds it toward 24,200, but that is where the FIIs defend, so book do not chase. Lose 24,000 in the first 30 minutes and it flips to negative gamma and slides toward 23,800. That is the buy zone, not the panic, where the puts are written and the domestic money has been stepping in. TCS and IT are the swing. Watch IT in the first hour. If it holds green the index can tag 24,200, if it sells the news again it caps the index. It is a Friday with crude at 76 still the open risk, so keep the h…

Yesterday's Grade | Three Out Of Five

Episode 77 called the gap up open and nailed 24,000 flipping to resistance. Nifty poked above it and got sold right back to close 23,962, and the gap number landed within a few points. The misses. Sensex drifted up to settle 76,741 instead of pinning 76,500, and IT lagged into TCS instead of leading. Three out of five. The full scorecard is on the website. One gap over resistance, one lid held by the FIIs, one result that decides IT. Have a great weekend.

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday we told you 24,000 was the resistance. The market ran up, tagged it, and got sold right back. It closed at 23,962. This morning, before the bell, GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,133, and we are gapping around 170 points straight over that level that stopped us yesterday. So the question changes today. It is not, can we reach 24,000. It is, can we hold above 24,000 today and into next week. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 78. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me give you yesterday first, because it sets up everything for today. Nifty closed at 23,962, up 0.34 percent. Sensex expiry happened at 76,750, up 0.31 percent. But the number that matters in India is VIX. It collapsed almost 9 percent to 13.36. The fear that spiked on Wednesday's crash came straight back out. And it was a broader day, guys. Realty was up 3.54 percent. Media was up 2 percent. PSU Bank up 1.6 percent. Midcaps up 1.4 percent. Only two sectors closed in red, Auto down a fifth of a percent and IT down 0.3 percent. Hold that thought, guys. IT was the single weakest sector on the board, right into its biggest result of the quarter. Then after the bell, TCS reported. Profits almost 13,349 crore, up by 5 percent. Revenue up by 14 percent. A 9.5 billion dollar order book, including a big AI deal with SKF. AI revenue now running at 2.6 billion dollars a year, and a 12 rupee dividend. Strong book. The one soft spot was the margins, 24 percent, squeezed by the annual wage hike. So the most beaten down sector in the market printed a healthy number, sitting at a six year low price. So that is the setup. Now here is the part nobody on the news is telling you, because on the surface this looks easy. Nasdaq up 1.3 percent, Nikkei up two percent, our GIFT Nifty is also up, TCS has beaten the street, the margins are thin but the rest of the numbers were perfectly fine. Gap up and go, right, right into the rally. Look at what the big money actually did wi…

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