Season 2, Episode 79 | 2026-07-13

The Breakout The FIIs Finally Backed, Into A Weekend Crude Shock. Why The 24,000 Gap Down Is A Dip To Buy

On Friday we finally broke out. Then over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up 4 percent and we open lower near 24,000. Sounds scary. It is not.

Verdict: 4.5/5 | 4 HIT, 1 PARTIAL | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.

Cold Open | Friday We Broke Out, The Weekend Closed Hormuz

On Friday we broke out. Over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up 4 percent and we open lower near 24,000. Sounds scary. It is not. This is a dip you buy, not one you sell, and in the next few minutes I will show you exactly why and exactly where. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 79. A news podcast with a twist, and the read is simple, buy the 24,000 dip.

Friday The Tape | The Broadest Green Day Of The Week

Nifty closed 24,206 up 1.02 percent, the first close above 24,200 in the whole move. Sensex 77,569 up 1.08 percent. India VIX fell another 8 percent to 12.25, a fresh low. Realty led up 3.49 percent, PSU Bank up 3, Bank Nifty up 1.39, IT up 1.96 off the TCS beat, Metal up 1.48. Midcaps and Smallcaps up over 1.4 each. Out of the entire board, only FMCG closed red. The broadest green tape of the week.

The Twist | The Big Money Finally Bought It With Us

For the first time in a week the big money bought it with us. In cash the FIIs bought 2,603 crore, their first real buy in a while, and the DIIs added 2,020 crore. Both hands buying. In futures the FIIs covered. They were short 2,66,251 index contracts and cut it to 2,54,711, buying back 11,540 shorts, covering 37,617 short calls, and trimming puts while adding stock longs. Be honest, they covered, they did not flip, they are still net short 2,54,711. But the direction is clear, the lid is coming off, not going on.

The Weekend Shock | Hormuz Closed, Crude Gaps Four Percent

Then the weekend threw a rock through the window. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US struck a third straight night, and Washington revoked the Iranian oil waiver. About a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait. Crude was one of the three legs Friday's rally stood on, so this morning the shock showed up. Brent jumped 4 percent to 79 dollars, WTI the same. GIFT Nifty is down about 205 points, pointing to an open near 24,000, roughly 180 to 200 points below Friday's close.

Three Reasons To Buy It | Contained Crude, Falling Gold, The Put Wall

That gap down is a level the market is handing you, not taking away. One, crude jumped but stopped under 80. This market can digest 79 dollar crude, what it cannot digest is 90. Under 80 the shock has a ceiling. Two, look at gold. Gold fell more than 1 percent to 4,072. In real fear money runs into gold, today it is walking out. That is a positioning wobble, not a panic. Three, the gap down lands you right on 24,000, the single biggest put wall on the board at 105 lakh puts, where the FIIs covered and the clients are writing puts. The dip is delivering you to support, not through it.

Who Stands At 24,000 | The Put Writers Defend The Strike

Add a VIX at 12.25 and you have cheap insurance and a firm floor. Think about who is actually standing at 24,000. The Clients are short 6,29,518 index puts, they are the put writers, and put writers defend the strike they sold. The Pros are long 1,74,916 calls and 1,22,524 puts at the same time, sitting on the fence, ready to move. Nobody who matters is leaning hard short into 24,000.

The Chain And The Plan | Buy 24,000, Reclaim 24,200, Grind 24,300

From the 14 July chain into Tuesday expiry, max pain 24,200 sits right on Friday's close. Support is 24,000, that 105 lakh put wall, then 23,800. Resistance is 24,300 at 94 lakh calls, then the hard wall 24,500 at 141 lakh calls. PCR 1.27, put heavy and supportive, straddle near 197, so the expected move is about 24,010 to 24,405. The plan is simple, buy the dip. I am a buyer of the 24,000 to 23,950 zone with a stop, targeting the reclaim of 24,200 then a grind to 24,300. The tell in the first hour is a reclaim of 24,100 with IT holding green off the HCL Tech number. Get both and the base case…

The Exit And The Grade | Five Out Of Five On Friday

A plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only happens if crude runs over 80 or a fresh strait headline hits. Below it I stand aside, I do not average down, the next shelf is 23,800, and I hold the 23,800 put as insurance. Keep the hedge on with VIX at 12.25. Friday, episode 78, went five out of five. We called the gap up over 24,000, the hold, the grind to the 24,200 cap, and IT as the swing. All of it landed, IT led up almost 2 percent and TCS added 1.45. Have a great week. One breakout the FIIs finally backed, one weekend crude shoc…

Highlights

Nifty closed 24,206 up 1.02 percent the first close above 24,200 in the move
Sensex 77,569 up 1.08 percent India VIX fell 8 percent to 12.25 a fresh low
Realty led up 3.49 percent PSU Bank up 3 IT up 1.96 off the TCS beat
Only FMCG closed red the broadest green tape of the week
FIIs bought 2,603 crore cash DIIs added 2,020 crore both hands buying
FIIs cut the index short from 2,66,251 to 2,54,711 buying back 11,540
FIIs covered 37,617 short calls and trimmed puts taking the lid off
Still net short 2,54,711 covered not flipped but the direction is clear
Clients short 6,29,518 index puts the put writers who defend 24,000
Pros long 1,74,916 calls and 1,22,524 puts sitting long gamma
Weekend Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed US struck a third night
Brent gapped 4 percent to 79 dollars GIFT Nifty down about 205 points
Gold fell more than 1 percent to 4,072 fear walking out not in
Open near 24,000 the biggest put wall on the board at 105 lakh puts
Max pain 24,200 support 24,000 then 23,800 into Tuesday expiry
Resistance 24,300 at 94 lakh calls hard wall 24,500 at 141 lakh
PCR 1.27 put heavy straddle 197 expected move 24,010 to 24,405
Plan buy 24,000 to 23,950 reclaim 24,200 grind 24,300
Invalidation a clean break below 24,000 on volume next shelf 23,800
EP78 graded five out of five HCL Tech Q1 the swing today

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. On Friday we broke out. Over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up by 4 percent and we are opening almost 200 points lower. Sounds scary, right? It is not. This is a dip you buy, not one you sell. And in the next few minutes, I will show you exactly why and exactly where. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 79. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me give you Friday first. Nifty closed 24,206, up 1.02 percent, the first close above 24,200 in the last 10 days in this whole move. Sensex 77,569, up 1.08 percent. India VIX fell another 8 percent to 12.25, a fresh low. Broad tape, Realty was up by 3.49 percent, PSU Bank up 3 percent, IT up 1.96 percent off the TCS beat. Out of the entire board, only FMCG closed red. Everything else was green. And here is what made Friday different from every update last week. The big money finally bought it with us. I have the NSE participation data. In the cash, the FIIs bought 2,603 crore, their first real buy in a while, and the DIIs added 2,020 crore on top of it. Both hands buying. In futures, the FIIs covered. They were short 2,66,000 index contracts, they cut it to 2,54,000, they bought back almost 11,540 contracts, covered 37,617 short calls as well, and trimmed their puts. So every leg, they took the lid off. Now to be honest with you, they covered, they did not flip it. Remember this, guys, they are still net short 2,54,000 index contracts. But the direction is clear. The lid is coming off, not going on. Then the weekend threw a rock through the window. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US struck for the third straight night, and Washington revoked the Iranian oil waiver. About a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait, and crude was one of the three legs Friday's rally stood on. So this morning, that shock showed up on the screen. Brent jumped 4 percent to 79 dollars, WTI also the same. And GIFT Nifty is down about 20…

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Verdict: 4.5/54 HIT, 1 PARTIALGraded next morning against NSE settlementFull track record →

How the grade landed

Graded on the official Mon 13 Jul close, Nifty made its low at 24,000.20 and held the 24,000 line to the tick before closing 24,211 dead on the 24,200 pin, IT led the board up 3.59 percent with TCS up 5.43 and HCLTech up 5.02 after its Q1 beat, India VIX up 8 percent to 13.28, FIIs sold 3062 crore of cash while DIIs bought 2172 crore to absorb it. HIT buy the 24,000 dip, the low was 24,000.20 and it bought straight back. HIT the wall holds to the tick, 24,000 held exactly. HIT IT leads it back, IT led up 3.59 percent and carried the tape. HIT reclaim 24,200, the close tagged the 24,200 pin. PARTIAL the 24,300 grind, price stopped at the 24,200 pin and the 24,300 stretch went untagged. Four and a half out of five, the whole spine buy 24,000 hold the tick IT leads back to 24,200 played out, only the 24,300 extension missed.