Season 2, Episode 80 | 2026-07-14
24,000 Held To The Tick And IT Bought The Crash | Now Crude Is Over 80 Into Nifty Expiry, Buy Dips But Keep The Insurance
Yesterday Korea had a Black Monday and Indian IT walked in and bought the dip. Overnight that same chip selling crossed into America and crude broke 80. So we gap down onto 24,000 again, on Nifty weekly expiry.
Verdict: 2.5/5 | 2 HIT, 1 PARTIAL, 2 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | Buy The Dip Again, But This Time With Insurance
Yesterday Korea had a Black Monday and Indian IT walked in and bought the dip. Overnight that same chip selling crossed into America, the Nasdaq lost more than one and a half percent, and crude broke 80. So this morning we gap down, back onto 24,000, on Nifty weekly expiry. Yesterday the call was to buy the 24,000 dip and it paid. Today the read is the same with one change. Crude is now over the line, so today you buy with caution, and you never buy without insurance. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 80. A news podcast with a twist, options first.
Yesterday The Tape | 24,000 Held To The Tick, IT Bought It Back
The Hormuz news gapped the Sensex down 700 points at the bell and Indian IT bought the whole thing back. Nifty made its low at 24,000.20, the 24,000 line held to the tick, and it closed 24,211, dead on the 24,200 pin. IT led the board up 3.59 percent, TCS up 5.43, HCLTech up 5.02 after a Q1 beat with profit 4,626 crore, up 20 percent on the year. But under that green screen the FIIs sold 3,062 crore of cash while the DIIs bought 2,172 crore to absorb it. The buyer was domestic money and IT, not the foreign desks. June inflation printed hot at 4.38 percent and pushed India VIX up 8 percent to 1…
Overnight | The Chips Crossed The Ocean, Crude Broke The Line
Two things moved against us overnight. The chip selling that crashed Korea did not stop, it crossed the ocean. The Nasdaq fell about 1.6 percent, the S&P 0.8, memory and AI names led it lower for a second straight day. And crude kept climbing on the strait. Iran is calling Hormuz closed, Washington is talking blockade and a toll on every tanker, and about a fifth of the world's oil moves through that channel. Brent is now over 84 dollars, WTI near 79. The rupee is soft at 95.62. GIFT Nifty is down about 165 points, pointing to an open near 24,040, right back on the 24,000 wall.
The Twist | The 14 July Expiry Chain
Here is the twist, and it is in the options. Max pain is 24,200, exactly where we closed. Support is 24,000, and that is the single biggest line on the whole board, close to 1.9 crore puts, and it grew by 83 lakh contracts yesterday alone. Resistance is 24,300 at 93 lakh calls, then the hard wall, 24,500, at 1.7 crore calls, the heaviest strike on the board. Put to call ratio is 1.62, firmly on the put side, that is supportive. The straddle is around 200, so the market is pricing a move of roughly 24,010 to 24,410 into the close.
The Participants | Pros Long Both Wings, Clients Short The Puts
Pros move first. They are long the futures and long both the calls and the puts, 1,52,000 long calls and 1,19,000 long puts at the same time, paying up for a move both ways into expiry. The foreign desks are the cautious side, short 2,55,000 index futures, writing the upside calls, buying the downside puts, and they sold the cash. The clients are sitting short 6,06,000 puts under the market, the put writers betting 24,000 holds. That is the fuel. If 24,000 cracks, those short puts have to run for cover, and that is what makes a move fast.
The Tell | A Rising Fear Gauge Into Expiry
Here is the tell that ties it together. The fear gauge rose into expiry, up more than 8 percent to 13.28, and the pros are paying for options on top of that. On a normal expiry the fear gauge falls, the options bleed to zero, and price gets glued to max pain. When the fear gauge is rising into expiry and the smart desk is buying both wings, that glue is weak. The pin can break and price can trend. So do not blindly sell the straddle today just because it says expiry on the calendar.
Why Caution Today | Crude Crossed 80, Gold Still Calm
Yesterday crude was under 80 and gold was falling, no fear, a clean dip you buy. Today crude is 84, over the line I gave you. That was the one thing that would change my mind, and it happened. It does not flip me bearish, but it means the downside is live now, not theoretical. The one tell still on our side is gold, flat at 4,009 and still not spiking. Real fear runs into gold and it is not running yet. So the bulls keep the benefit of the doubt today, but only just.
The Plan And The Scorecard | Buyer Above 24,000, Out Below On Volume
The plan is about the edges, not the middle chop. We open near 24,040, into the wall. If 24,000 holds, I am a buyer with a hedge, looking for the reclaim of 24,100 and then the 24,200 pin. Get 24,200 back in the first hour with IT green, and we press 24,200 then 24,300, with 24,500 the magnet above that. The down case is a clean break of 24,000 on real volume, which only needs crude to keep running or one fresh strait headline. Gamma flips negative, the clients short 6,06,000 puts run for cover, and the move gets fast toward 23,900 then 23,800. Above 24,000 a buyer, below it on volume out, and…
Highlights
- Nifty closed 24,211 yesterday, dead on the 24,200 pin, low 24,000.20 held to the tick
- IT led up 3.59 percent, TCS up 5.43, HCLTech up 5.02 after a Q1 beat
- HCLTech Q1 profit 4,626 crore, up 20 percent on the year
- FIIs sold 3,062 crore cash, DIIs bought 2,172 crore to absorb it
- June CPI hot at 4.38 percent, above expectations, cooling rate cut hopes
- India VIX rose 8 percent to 13.28 into expiry
- Nasdaq down about 1.6 percent, S&P down 0.8, memory and AI led a second down day
- Brent over 84 dollars, WTI near 79, crude broke the 80 line on the Hormuz strait
- About a fifth of the world's oil moves through Hormuz, Iran calling it closed
- Rupee soft at 95.62, GIFT Nifty down about 165 pointing to an open near 24,040
- Max pain 24,200, support 24,000 the biggest line at close to 1.9 crore puts
- The 24,000 strike added 83 lakh puts yesterday alone
- Resistance 24,300 at 93 lakh calls, hard cap 24,500 at 1.7 crore calls the heaviest strike
- Put to call ratio 1.62, straddle near 200, expected move 24,010 to 24,410
- Pros long the futures and long both wings, 1,52,000 calls and 1,19,000 puts
- FIIs short 2,55,000 index futures, writing upside calls, buying downside puts
- Clients short 6,06,000 puts, the put writers betting 24,000 holds
- Gold flat at 4,009, not spiking, the one tell still on the bulls side
- Plan, above 24,000 buy the dip with a hedge, target 24,200 then 24,300
- Below 24,000 on volume, gamma flips and it runs toward 23,900 then 23,800
Transcript Excerpt
good morning guys yesterday korea had a black monday and indian it walked in and bought the dip nicely last night the same chip selling crossed into america the nasdaq lost more than one percent and crude broke 80 so this morning we are gapping down on gift nifty back on to 24,000 on expiry day. Now here is the thing guys. Yesterday I told you to buy that 24,000 dip and it paid off. Today, am I still a buyer? But with one change. Crude is now over my line. So today, you buy with caution and you never buy without an insurance. So this is the Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 80. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me give you yesterday first, fast, because today is the second half of the same story. The Hormuz news gapped the Sensex down 700 points at the bell. And then Indian IT bought the whole thing back. Nifty made its low at 24,000.20. The 24,000 line held to the tick. And it closed 24,211. Dead on that 24,200 pin and the target. IT led the board up 3.59%. TCS was up by 5.43%. Sorry, HCL Tech was up by 5% and after its numbers. But look under that green screen. FIIs sold 3062 crore in cash and DIIs bought 2172 crore to absorb it. So the buyer was domestic and IT not the foreign desks and June inflation came in hot at 4.38% above expectation which cooled the rate cut hopes and helped push the fear gauge up 8% to 13.28, that is where the VIX closed in. Now, overnight, two things moved against us. One, the chip selling that crashed Korea did not stop. It crossed the ocean and the US fell about 1.6%. The S&P was down 0.8%. Memory and AI names led it lower for a second straight day. Two, crude kept climbing on the strait. Iran is calling Hormuz closed, Washington is talking about a blockade and a toll on every tanker that passes through it, about a fifth of the world's oil moves through that channel. That is almost 20%. Brent is now over $84. WTI near $79. The rupee is also extremely soft at 95.62 and has broken 95.50. And gift nifty is down about 165 poin…
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