Season 2, Episode 81 | 2026-07-15

24,000 Held To The Tick A Second Day But The Pros Just Cut Their Bet And FII Turned Defensive | Buy Dips With A Hedge

On the screen yesterday looked calm. Nifty slipped two thirds of a percent, but 24,000 held to the tick for the second day running and closed 24,052, pinned between the walls.

Verdict: 4.5/5 | 4 HIT, 1 PARTIAL | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.

Cold Open | Buy Dips A Third Day, But Keep The Insurance On

On the screen yesterday looked calm. Nifty slipped two thirds of a percent, but 24,000 held to the tick for the second day running, and it closed 24,052, pinned right between the walls. But the official positioning dropped last night and it tells a different story. The pros took money off the table, the foreign desks got more defensive, and the retail crowd piled in the other way. So today I am still a buyer of dips, a third day on this wall. But that split under the surface is the exact reason you keep your insurance on. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 81, a news podcast with a twist, option…

Yesterday The Tape | Crude Ran Past 86, But 24,000 Held Again

Crude was the whole story. Brent ran past 86 dollars on the Hormuz standoff and the market slipped with it. Nifty fell 159 points to 24,052, the Sensex fell 561 to 77,055. But 24,000 held to the tick again, the low was 24,023, and the close pinned between 24,000 and 24,100. Under the hood it was defensive. Pharma, healthcare and metals were the only green, while realty, the public banks, autos and IT were sold. HCLTech alone fell four and a half percent after its result. The foreign desks sold 740 crore in cash, the domestics bought 2,928 crore and soaked it up. And the fear gauge did not fall…

Overnight | The Tone Improved, Chips Turned, Crude Stalled

In America a cooler inflation number lifted the market, the Nasdaq closed up 0.9 percent, tech back in front. Asia is green this morning. Here is the one that matters for us. Taiwan's chips reversed and are up 1.8 percent, so the selling that hit our IT yesterday has turned. And crude, the risk, stopped climbing. Brent is 86, no fresh spike overnight. GIFT Nifty is 24,046, flat to yesterday's close, so the open is quiet. The rupee is still soft at 96.20 and crude is still 86, so the tail is there, but it is not getting worse this morning.

The Twist | The Official 14 July Book

Here is the twist, and it is in the positioning that just came out, the official 14 July book. Pros move first. Going into Tuesday's expiry they were long both the calls and the puts, paying for a big move either way. Overnight they cut it. Their long calls went from 1,52,000 contracts down to 48,000, and they trimmed the puts too. The smart desk that was betting on a move just took that bet off the table. They are still long the futures, but far lighter on the options.

The Participants | Foreign Desks Defensive, The Crowd Chasing

The foreign desks went the other way, more defensive. They pushed their index futures short out to 2,65,000 contracts, added 44,000 more downside puts, and for the first time in this stretch they trimmed their single stock long book by about 82,000 contracts. Their whole derivative book reads bearish. The clients did the opposite of both. They chased, adding a lakh of long calls, and sold even more downside. They are now short 6,29,000 puts under this market. That is the widest gap in a while. The money that matters stepped back, and the crowd stepped in.

Why The Hedge Stays On | 24,000 Is The Fuel

So what does that tell you to do. This is a market to buy dips in, not to chase. And it is why the hedge stays on. The crowd is short 6,29,000 puts sitting right at 24,000. That is the fuel. As long as 24,000 holds, those writers are fine and dips get bought. But if crude cracks that level, they all run for cover at once, and that is exactly what turns a slow drift into a fast drop.

The Levels | The Nifty Board And Tomorrow's Sensex Expiry

On the new weekly board, 24,000 is the line, the single biggest cluster of bets on the screen, both sides. 24,100 is your first real resistance, the heaviest call wall at over 6 crore contracts. Above that 24,200, then 24,300, and the far wall at 24,500. Support below 24,000 is 23,900, then 23,800. The fear gauge at 13.75 is pricing a move of about 210 points today, so think 23,850 on the downside to 24,260 on the upside. Tomorrow is Sensex expiry. The Sensex opens flat near 77,050. The sellers have stacked the top hard, 77,500 is the heaviest call wall, then 77,200 and 77,100 just under it, a…

The Plan And The Scorecard | Buyer Above 24,000, Out Below On Volume

The plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200, and 24,300 only if 24,200 gives way. 24,000 is the line, hold it and dips are for buying, a third day in a row. Lose 24,000 on real volume, and that needs crude to spike or a fresh headline over the strait, then gamma flips, the short put crowd runs, and I want no part of the middle. Next support 23,900, then 23,800, and I stand aside, I do not average down. Keep the insurance on. Vol is cheap, the fear gauge is rising, and there is a live crude event running. Scorecard on episode 80. I…

Highlights

Nifty closed 24,052 down 159 points 0.66 percent holding 24,000 to the tick a second day
Sensex closed 77,055 down 561 points
Intraday low 24,023 close pinned between 24,000 and 24,100
India VIX rose 3.5 percent to 13.75 into expiry instead of falling
HCLTech fell 4.5 percent after its result
Only pharma healthcare and metals green realty PSU banks autos and IT sold
FII sold 740 crore cash DII bought 2928 crore
Brent ran past 86 dollars on the Hormuz standoff
Overnight Nasdaq up 0.9 percent on cooler US inflation
Taiwan chips reversed up 1.8 percent the IT selling turned
GIFT Nifty 24,046 flat rupee 96.20 crude still 86
Pros cut long calls from 1,52,000 to 48,000 and trimmed puts
Pros still long futures but far lighter on options
FII pushed index futures short to 2,65,000 contracts
FII added 44,000 downside puts and cut single stock longs by 82,000
Clients added a lakh long calls now short 6,29,000 puts at 24,000
Nifty 24,100 first resistance over 6 crore call contracts far wall 24,500
Support 23,900 then 23,800 VIX prices a 210 point move box 23,850 to 24,260
Sensex expiry Thursday cap 77,500 pivot 77,000 range 76,500 to 77,500
EP80 graded 2.5 out of 5 direction right entry too greedy

Transcript Excerpt

a very good morning guys on the screen yesterday nifty slipped two -third of a percent but 24 000 held nicely for the second day running and it closed at 24 000 052 pinned right between the support calm but then the official positioning dropped last night and it tells a different story completely the pros took money off the table the foreign desk got more defensive and the retail crowd piled in the other way so today i'm still a buyer but a third day on this support but that split under the surface is exactly the reason you keep your insurance on So this is the Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 81. I am Tanmay Kutubati. Let's go. So let me give you yesterday first. Crude was the whole story. Brent ranked past $86 on the Hermos standoff and the market slipped with it. Nifty down 159 points to 24 ,052. The Sensex down 561 points to 77 ,055. But 24 ,000 held again. The low was 24 ,023 and the close pinned between 24 ,000 and 24 ,100. Under the hood, it was defensive. Pharma, healthcare and metals were the only green, while realty, the public banks, autos and IT were sold off. HCL Tech alone fell 4 .5 % after its results. The foreign desk sold 740 crore in cash. The DAS bought 2928. 2928 crore in cash and the fear gauge the wicks did not fall on expiry like it usually does it rose up three and a half percent to 13 .75 now overnight the tone actually improved guys in us a cooler inflation number lifted the market nasdaq closed up 0 .9 percent tech back in the front. Asia is green this morning and here is one thing that matters for us. Taiwan's chip reversed and are up 1 .8%. So the selling that hit our IT yesterday has turned and crude the risk stopped climbing. Brent is $86, no fresh spike overnight. GIF Nifty is trading at 24 ,046, extremely flat. to yesterday's close so the open is quiet the rupee is still soft at 96 .20 and the crude is still at 86 dollars so the tail is there but it is not getting worse this morning so here is the twist guys and it is the po…

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Verdict: 4.5/54 HIT, 1 PARTIALGraded next morning against NSE settlementFull track record →

How the grade landed

Graded on the Wed 15 Jul close, Nifty 24,078.50 up 26.45 or 0.11 percent after a full round trip, high 24,220.35 at 09:40 and low 24,010.55, closing on its own 16 Jul pivot at 24,077.62. HIT the dip buy, 24,000 held to the tick a third day with the low at 24,010.55 and a green close. HIT the target, reclaim 24,100 then 24,150 to 24,200 was tagged at 24,220.35 inside forty minutes. HIT the box, the 23,850 to 24,260 band contained the entire range and 24,000 never broke on volume. HIT the Sensex fade leg, roughly 77,600 tagged and rejected with the close 77,185.43 back on the 77,200 line. PARTIAL on protection, Brent holding 86 and IT bleeding both landed but India VIX fell 3.5 percent to 13.27 rather than rising as called, and the bank pairing inverted. Four and a half out of five, the best since EP78. The levels were right and the hold was not. Two repeat lessons logged: never couple IT and domestic banks in one clause, and never pair a rising VIX with a buy the dip.