Season 2, Episode 82 | 2026-07-16
The Writers Moved The Resistance Up, Then Korea Broke: Sensex Expiry With Max Pain At 77,200, Gamma Flip At 77,000, And GIFT Nifty Pricing None Of It
Yesterday's call landed and then died. I said 24,000 holds and the target is 24,150 to 24,200. By 09:40 the Nifty had tagged 24,220.35. Both calls, inside forty minutes.
Verdict: 4.5/5 | 4 HIT | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | The Levels Were Right, The Hold Was Not
Yesterday the call was that 24,000 holds and the target is 24,150 to 24,200. By 09:40 the Nifty had tagged 24,220. Forty minutes, both calls done. And then the tape spent the next five hours taking every single point back. The Nifty closed 24,078, up 26. The Sensex closed 77,185, up 130, after being 460 points higher. The levels were right. The hold was not. That distinction is the whole of today.
The Option Book | Writers Covered 77,000 And Rebuilt The Resistance 400 Points Higher
The headline on today's Sensex expiry chain is a put call ratio of 0.74. More calls than puts. Read that number alone and you would say sellers everywhere, upside capped, stay away. Now look at where the calls actually moved. At 77,000 call open interest fell by 1,44,760. At 77,100 it fell by 1,42,700. That is nearly 2,90,000 calls the writers covered outright. And at 77,500 they added 12,48,220, at 77,600 another 14,98,720. The people selling upside walked away from 77,000 and 77,100 and rebuilt the wall 400 points higher. That is not sellers pressing. When a writer covers a strike and rewrit…
Participant Flows | Pros Bought The Calls The Foreigners Sold
The NSE participant book published last night says the same thing from a second desk. Proprietary desks bought 64,108 index calls net yesterday. That is the biggest single day call buy of this entire run. On the other side of that trade, foreign institutions sold 50,260. Pro long, FII short. In this framework that pairing is the strongest bull tell there is. Add max pain. It sits at 77,200 on today's expiry and the Sensex closed 77,185. Fifteen points. The magnet is already sitting under the market's nose. Covered calls, pros buying, max pain overhead: the whole book says grind, pin, drift int…
And Then Korea Opened | KOSPI Down 7 Percent, GIFT Nifty Up 0.12 Percent
The KOSPI is down about 7 percent at 6762. They triggered a sell side sidecar at 09:10 local time, the circuit breaker that freezes program trading. It is another sidecar, not the first this year. SK Hynix down 9 percent, Samsung down. It is a chip rout and it is spilling into Japan, where the Nikkei is around 66,500. Now hold two things next to each other. Korea down 7 percent with trading halted. GIFT Nifty at 24,070, up 0.12 percent. Twelve hundredths of one percent, on a morning when the biggest chip market in Asia has a circuit breaker. The book says pin. The tape from Seoul says gap. Bot…
Contagion Check | Metal And IT Were Already The Two Weakest Doors
Here is why Korea is not somebody else's problem. Look at what was already weakest going into last night. Metal down 1.11 percent, the worst sector on the board. IT down 0.67 percent, and that was IBM guiding revenue below estimates, a global chip and tech story rather than a domestic one. Metal and IT. The two weakest sectors in India yesterday are precisely the two channels a chip rout travels down. That is not a coincidence you get to ignore. The good news is real though. This is a chip panic, not an everything panic. Hong Kong is up 1.12 percent. The S&P closed up 0.38 percent, the Nasdaq …
The Two Numbers | Sensex 77,000 Gamma Flip And A 491 Point Straddle
Sensex 77,000 is the whole trade. Total gamma flips sign right there. It is negative at 77,000 and positive at 77,100. Above 77,100 the dealers dampen every move and the market pins toward 77,200. Below 77,000 they amplify it, and moves get faster, not slower. And 77,000 has already been tested. Yesterday's low was 76,982.82. The Sensex traded below 77,000 intraday and clawed back. Second tests are where lines either confirm or break. Nifty 24,020 to 24,040 is the same idea, the flip zone. The Nifty closed 24,078, sitting 40 points above the trapdoor. Today's Sensex straddle at 77,200 is 491, …
The Plan | Fade 77,400, Buy 77,020, Stand Aside Below 77,000
Sensex expiry. Fade rallies into 77,400 to 77,480, where 27 lakh calls got written yesterday and they will defend it. Buy dips into 77,020 to 77,060, just inside the round number, only while 77,000 holds. Lose 77,000 on real volume and you stand aside, because below it 76,700 opens and then 76,500. Somebody already paid for that: put writers added 8,82,340 contracts at 76,500 and 9,53,120 at 76,000. Nifty. Buy 24,010 to 24,030. Not 24,150. 24,200 now carries 92,97,015 calls with 50,14,620 added in a single session. Three rejections and 50 lakh new calls is information. Stop paying up for the t…
One Last Thing | The Support Thinned 76 Percent In One Session
Foreign institutions sold 736 crore in cash yesterday but bought 441 crore of index futures. First futures buy in this stretch. That is a hedge coming off, not a mind changing. They still sit on a short book of 2,62,712 contracts and covered barely one percent of it. But watch the other side. Domestic institutions bought only 705 crore. On Tuesday they absorbed 2,928 crore. That is a 76 percent collapse in the support under this market, in one session. The writers moved the resistance up. The domestics thinned the support out. And Korea is down 7 percent. Three days, same two lines. The first …
Highlights
- Nifty closed 24,078 up 26 points after tagging 24,220 by 09:40 and giving it all back
- Sensex closed 77,185 up 130 points after trading 460 points higher intraday
- Sensex expiry put call ratio 0.74 more calls than puts
- Call OI fell 1,44,760 at 77,000 and 1,42,700 at 77,100 nearly 2,90,000 calls covered
- Writers added 12,48,220 calls at 77,500 and 14,98,720 at 77,600 rebuilding resistance 400 points higher
- Proprietary desks bought 64,108 index calls net the biggest single day call buy of the run
- FIIs sold 50,260 index calls on the other side of the pro buying
- Max pain 77,200 against a 77,185 close a gap of 15 points
- KOSPI down about 7 percent at 6762 sell side sidecar triggered 09:10 local
- Another Korean sidecar this year SK Hynix down 9 percent Samsung down
- Nikkei around 66,500 as the chip rout spills into Japan
- GIFT Nifty 24,070 up 0.12 percent pricing none of Korea
- Metal down 1.11 percent worst sector IT down 0.67 percent on IBM guiding revenue below estimates
- Hong Kong up 1.12 percent S&P up 0.38 percent Nasdaq up 0.61 percent America closed green
- Brent 85.24 stalled on the 85 to 86 shelf a fourth session Hormuz risk cheaper not gone
- Sensex total gamma negative at 77,000 and positive at 77,100 the flip is the whole trade
- Sensex low 76,982.82 yesterday traded below 77,000 intraday before clawing back
- Nifty flip zone 24,020 to 24,040 with the close 24,078 just 40 points above the trapdoor
- Sensex straddle 491 points implying 76,694 on the downside and 77,676 on the upside
- India VIX 13.27 down 3.49 percent on a day the index reversed 142 points off its high
Transcript Excerpt
Yesterday we bought at 24,000 and the target was 24,150 to 24,200. By 09:40 in the morning the Nifty had tapped 24,220. Forty minutes, both calls done. And then the Sensex spent the next five hours taking every single point back. Closed at 24,078, up 26 points. Sensex closed at 77,185, up 130, after being 460 points higher. The levels were right. The hold was not. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to Episode 82. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Today's Sensex expiry, guys. And before we get to Korea, and we are going to get to Korea, I want to show you what the option writers did yesterday, because almost nobody caught it. The Sensex chain for today's expiry: the headline number is a put-call ratio of 0.74. More calls than puts. Read the number on its own and you would say sellers everywhere, ceiling is heavy, stay away from the upside. Now look at where the calls have actually moved yesterday. At the 77000 strike, call open interest fell by 1,44,760. At the 77100 strike, it fell by 1,42,700. That is nearly 2,90,000 calls that the writers covered. Gone, completely. And at 77500 they added 12,48,220 calls. At 77600 they added 14,98,720 calls. Read that again slowly, guys. The people selling upside walked away from 77000 and 77100 and rebuilt the resistance 400 points higher. That is not sellers pressing, that is sellers retreating and re-pitching the resistance. When a writer covers a strike and rewrites it higher, he is telling you he no longer believes that the level caps the market. The ceiling, or the resistance, has moved up. And it is not only the desk saying it on Sensex. On NSE as well, this is the official one, the pros, that is the proprietary accounts of members, bought 64,108 index calls net. That is the biggest single-day call buy of this entire run. And on the other side of the trade, FIIs sold 50,260 calls. So the pros bought the resistance that the foreigners were selling. Pros are long, FIIs are short. In this framework that pairing is the st…
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