Season 2, Episode 83 | 2026-07-17
FII Sold 4,206 Crore And Nifty Fell 5.75 Points | The Writers Moved Both Lines Up | Reliance Q1 Today, Pros Are Selling The Crowd Its Ticket
Foreign institutions sold 4,206 crore of Indian shares on 16 July, the biggest cash sell of this run, and the Nifty closed down 5.75 points at 24,072.75. Episode 83 explains where all of it went, and why yesterday was not selling at all.
Verdict: 2.5/5 | 2 HIT, 1 PARTIAL, 2 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | 4206 Crore Went Out The Door And The Index Did Not Move
Foreign institutions sold 4,206 crore of Indian shares yesterday. Biggest cash sell of this run. The Nifty closed down 5.75 points. Four thousand two hundred crore goes out the door and the index does not move. Somebody absorbed all of it. And when you find out who, and what they did with the other hand, yesterday stops looking like selling.
The Participant Book | They Did Not Exit, They Changed Seats
Start with the official NSE participant book. Foreign institutions sold 4,206 crore in cash. In the same session they bought 1,994 crore of index futures and 1,308 crore of stock futures. Nifty futures alone, 2,195 crore bought. They sold the shares and bought the futures back. That is not an exit. That is the same bet, moved to a cheaper seat. And the short book proves it. They came into yesterday short 2,62,712 index futures and closed short 2,49,886. They covered 12,826 contracts, a second straight session of shrinking. Meanwhile they are long 5,34,167 stock futures and added to it. Long th…
The Correction | The 76 Percent Collapse Was A Calendar, Not A Mood
Yesterday the call was that the Sensex pins at 77,200. It closed 77,186.87. Thirteen points. And the protection call was to own it because it was cheap, not because fear was rising. Fear fell again. Both landed. But one thing was wrong, and it gets corrected on air. On Wednesday domestic institutions bought only 705 crore against 2,928 crore the day before. That got called a 76 percent collapse in the support under this market, and it got read as sentiment. Domestics losing conviction. It was not sentiment. It was mechanical. A very large domestic fund book was closing that week and the money …
The Chain | Writers Abandoned 24,000 And Rebuilt Both Lines Higher
Nifty, 21st July expiry, off the official NSE closing data. At 24,000, call open interest fell by 7,47,565. The sellers walked away from 24,000. At 24,100 they added 7,55,040. At 24,150 they added 10,79,910, the biggest add on the board. The people selling upside abandoned 24,000 and rebuilt 100 to 150 points higher. Same fingerprint as the Sensex last week. When a writer covers a strike and rewrites it higher, he is telling you he no longer thinks that level caps this market. The support did the same thing. Put sellers added 14,32,080 contracts at 24,050 and 5,09,470 at 24,000. They stacked t…
Two Numbers | 24,200 Is The Wall, 24,100 Is Where It Settles
24,200 now carries 92,22,590 calls. Largest on the board by a distance. That is your resistance and it is not close. 24100 is where the whole 21st July chain settles if nothing changes. The put call ratio sits at 0.83, so for every 100 calls open there are only 83 puts. Call heavy. Read alone, that says heavy. Read next to where the calls actually moved, it says something else entirely. GIFT Nifty is at 24,108.50. We are opening on top of 24,100. The market is starting the day sitting exactly on the number the chain wants it to finish at.
Reliance Day | The Pros Are Selling The Crowd Its Lottery Ticket
Reliance reports today, after the close. Roughly 8 percent of the index. It closed 1296.60, up 0.08 percent. Dead flat, doing absolutely nothing into its own result. Look at stock options in the participant book. Retail clients are net long 10,94,177 stock calls and they added to it. Proprietary desks are net short 5,26,622 stock calls and they added to that. The crowd is buying lottery tickets into earnings. The pros are the ones selling them the tickets. But on the index the pros are doing the opposite. Proprietary desks are net long 1,26,560 index calls, up about 14,600 in a session. Foreig…
Sectors | A Fourth Straight Day Of The Same Split
IT closed up 0.67 percent. Wipro up 1.77, HCL Tech up 1.66, Tech Mahindra up 0.77, and Infosys and TCS both added a little over half a percent. Financial services excluding banks, down 1.17 percent, 3 advances against 27 declines. Capital markets down 2.40 percent, worst on the board. Realty down 0.98. Bank Nifty down 0.30 to 57,582. Four days now. This is not noise anymore, it is the regime. Money is leaving financials and going into technology, and the big bank results land over the weekend. Volatility closed 12.88, down 2.92 percent. Under 13, the calmest this market has been in the entire …
The Plan | Trade 24,100, And This Time The Dip Has A Branch
We open around 24,110, above the flip. Above 24,100 the desks dampen every move and the tape drifts toward 24,100. Below 24,050 they amplify it and moves get faster, not slower. That line is the whole day. Fade rallies into 24,180 to 24,200, where 92 lakh calls are sitting and they will defend it. Buy dips into 24,040 to 24,060, just inside the round number, only while 24,000 holds. And this time the branch ships with it, because three episodes running a dip level got handed out that never triggered on a gap. If we open above 24,120 and never trade back down, the dip is void. Do not chase it. …
Highlights
- FIIs sold 4206 crore of cash the biggest sell of this run and the Nifty closed down just 5.75 points
- Same session FIIs bought 1,994 crore index futures and 1,308 crore stock futures Nifty futures alone 2,195 crore
- FII index short book 2,62,712 to 2,49,886 covered 12,826 contracts a second straight session of shrinking
- FIIs long 5,34,167 stock futures and adding long the shares short the index a hedged book not a bearish one
- DIIs bought 2,986 crore and absorbed the entire foreign sell without blinking
- The 705 crore DII session was a fund book closing not a loss of conviction correction aired
- Sensex closed 77,186.87 against the 77,200 pin called yesterday a gap of 13 points
- Nifty 24,000 call OI fell 7,47,565 the sellers walked away from the strike
- Writers added 7,55,040 calls at 24,100 and 10,79,910 at 24,150 the biggest add on the board
- Put sellers added 14,32,080 contracts at 24,050 and 5,09,470 at 24,000 stacking support higher
- Both sides moved up resistance up and support up in the same session
- 24,200 carries 92,22,590 calls largest on the board by a distance
- Nifty PCR 0.83 call heavy on the headline but the calls moved up not down
- GIFT Nifty 24,108.50 opening exactly on top of the 24,100 settle
- Reliance closed 1296.60 up 0.08 percent dead flat into its own Q1 print worth 8 percent of the index
- Retail net long 10,94,177 stock calls against proprietary desks net short 5,26,622
- Proprietary desks net long 1,26,560 index calls up 14,600 in a session against FIIs short 2,18,883
- IT up 0.67 percent a fourth straight day against financial services ex banks down 1.17 percent
- Capital markets down 2.40 percent worst on the board Bank Nifty down 0.30 to 57,582
- India VIX 12.88 down 2.92 percent the calmest of the run with the Tuesday 24,000 straddle at 270
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning guys, FIIs sold almost 4,206 crore of Indian shares yesterday, biggest cash sell we have seen in last 10 days. The Nifty closed down just 5.75 points. 4,206 crore goes out of the door and the index does not move. Somebody absorbed it completely and when you find out who and what they did with the other hand yesterday stops looking like selling. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 83. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So starting with yesterday first, FIIs sold 4,206 crore in cash. In the same session, they bought 1,994, almost 2,000 crore of index futures and 1,308 crore of stock futures. Nifty futures alone 2,195 crore bought. They sold the shares and bought the futures back. That is not an exit. That is the same bet, moved to a cheaper seat. And the short book proves it. FIIs came into yesterday short 2,62,712 index futures, almost at the highest point. They closed short yesterday at 2,49,886 so they covered almost 13,000 contracts yesterday. The short is shrinking for a second straight session. It has now come down two days in a row for the first time in the last 15-20 days. Meanwhile, they are long 5,34,167 stock futures and they added to that long the shares, short the index. That is a hedged book, not a bearish one. People keep reading the headlines that FIIs are selling and calling it fear. It is not fear, it is plumbing. Now the part that I owe you. Yesterday I told you the Sensex pins at 77,100 to 77,200, it closed at 77,186.87. 13 points below 77,200 and I told you to own protection because it was cheap, not because fear was rising. Fear fell again, both landed but I also told you something that was wrong and I am correcting it on air. On Wednesday domestic institutions bought only 705 crore against 2,928 crore the day before. I called that a 76% collapse in support under this market and I read it as sentiment, domestics losing conviction. It was not sentiment, it was mechanical. A very large domestic fund book was closi…
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