Season 2, Episode 89 | 2026-07-27
Crude Blinked, Not Spiked: Nifty Gaps Up Into 23,800 Resistance One Day Before a Double Expiry | Pro Rotates Bullish, Client Still Short 7 Lakh Puts | Brent 93, GIFT +127, VIX 14
Five days down, then Friday they bought the crash back, and over the weekend the driver of the entire slide did the opposite of what everyone feared. This is The Tanmay Edge, Episode 89, for Monday 27 July 2026. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti.
Cold Open | Crude Blinked, Not Spiked
On Friday the instruction was respect 23,800 and the warning was do not sell your protection cheap into the weekend, because crude was knocking on 100 dollars and the headlines do not close when we do. The headlines came. The Red Sea lit up again, tankers and oil sites back in the story. And crude, the number that drove us down for five straight sessions, did the complete opposite of the fear. It did not spike to 100, it fell apart. Brent near 93 dollars, down about five percent. The driver that broke the market blinked, and GIFT Nifty is up more than 100 points, pointing to a gap up straight …
The Close | A Reversal Candle After Five Down Days
Nifty closed Friday at 23,767.45, down 102 points, the fifth down day in a row, the longest losing streak of the year. But under the headline the low was 23,606 and we recovered more than 160 points off it, a long lower wick, a proper reversal candle. Sensex 76,059.77, down 331, recovered more than 500 points off its low. Bank Nifty actually closed green and the banks led the turn. The vol gauge, India VIX, ticked up near 14, fear rose even as price bought itself back. Breadth was heavy, 14 up 36 down, but the small caps quietly closed green and IT rose almost a percent with HCL Tech and Tech …
The Chain | 23,800 Flips From Support To Resistance
At 23,800 sellers piled on more than 40 lakh fresh calls, so 23,800 flipped from Friday's support into overhead resistance. One strike higher 23,900 is a heavy call line too, and above that 24,000 is the wall of the whole board, close to 1.40 crore calls, the single biggest open interest anywhere. The ladder we open into is 23,800, 23,900, then the 24,000 lid. Underneath, 23,700 holds more than 93 lakh puts and there is a deep put shelf at 23,500 with more than a crore contracts. Friday's low, 23,606, sits right between them, the bull's line in the sand. The put call ratio is 0.83 and the gamm…
Positioning | The Cleanest Bullish Rotation In Two Weeks
The professionals are long 29,221 index futures and added. They pushed long calls up to 2,06,503, a big add, and cut long puts down to 1,26,665. The desk that leads added futures, bought calls, and sold down its protection into Friday's reversal. When smart money stops paying for puts and starts paying for calls, it thinks the low held. The foreign institutions are still net short 2,70,847 index futures but long 5,74,712 stock futures, a hedged long, and they started buying back the calls they had sold as resistance. The clients covered about 66,000 short puts but are still short 7,02,891 with…
The World | A Crude Relief Rally, Not Full Risk On
Brent near 93 this morning, down about five percent in a session, our own crude near 85. Crude at 93 instead of 100 takes pressure off the import bill, off inflation, and off the rupee in one move. Gold firm near 4105, the dollar index soft near 101, the rupee 96.56 with the single biggest weight on it finally lifting. America was mixed Friday, Europe closed strong, Asia is mixed but calm. Crypto is still heavy, Bitcoin around 65,000 and Ether near 1900, not confirming risk appetite. GIFT Nifty near 23,955, so we open gap up around 23,890 to 23,930, straight into the first band of resistance.
The Plan | Let The Gap Prove Itself, Trade The Driver
We open near 23,880 to 23,940. Hold above 23,900 after the first hour and this oversold tape with crude falling can extend the bounce, but the first real test is 23,900 and then the 24,000 wall, so respect 24,000 as the lid into expiry and do not chase the gap. Lose 23,800 and fill the gap and moves speed up, 23,700 then Friday's low at 23,606. That 23,606 is the bull's line, hold it and the reversal is alive. The straddle is about 250, a tight weekly band of roughly 23,540 to 24,190. And the lesson that has worked all month, trade the driver, not the index. The whole slide was crude, and the …
Highlights
- Brent near 93 dollars down about 5 percent the crude spike fear inverted
- Nifty 23,767.45 down 102 the fifth straight down day the longest streak of the year
- Low 23,606 recovered more than 160 points a reversal candle after a five day fall
- Sensex 76,059.77 down 331 recovered 500 plus off its low Bank Nifty closed green
- India VIX near 14 fear rose one more time even as price bought itself back
- Breadth 14 up 36 down but smallcaps closed green microcap up half a percent
- 23,800 flipped to resistance on 40 lakh fresh call writes
- 24,000 the wall of the board close to 1.40 crore calls still building
- Support 23,700 with 93 lakh puts deep shelf 23,500 with over a crore
- PCR 0.83 call heavy gamma line right around 23,800
- Pros long 29,221 futures calls up to 2,06,503 puts cut to 1,26,665 bullish rotation
- FII net short 2,70,847 index futures long 5,74,712 stock futures hedged long
- Clients covered 66,000 short puts still short 7,02,891 no protection
- GIFT 23,955 gap up open 23,890 to 23,930 straight into resistance
- Straddle about 250 weekly band 23,540 to 24,190 trade the edges
- Tuesday 28th is the double expiry weekly and monthly on the same chain
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. On Friday I left you with one instruction and one warning. The instruction was respect 23800. The warning was do not sell your protection cheap into the weekend, because crude was knocking on 100 dollars and the headlines do not close when we do. Well, the headlines came in over the weekend. The Red Sea is lit up again, tankers and oil sites back in the story, the exact thing the whole market was afraid of. And crude, the number that drove us down for five straight sessions last week, did the complete opposite of the fear. It did not spike to 100, it fell apart. Brent is near 93 dollars this morning, down about five percent. The driver that broke the market blinked, and our own screen is already pricing it. GIFT Nifty is up by more than 100 points, pointing to a gap up straight into the resistance I told you to respect. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 89. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So, first the scorecard for Friday, guys, and it was a very good day for us. Four out of five. Full scorecard is available on rupeecase.com. Now, what happened on Friday? Nifty closed at 23,767.45, down 102 points, a bit under half a percent. That is the fifth down day in a row, the longest losing streak of the year. But look under the headline. The low was 23,606, and we recovered more than 160 points off it to close, a long lower wick, a proper reversal candle after a five day fall. Sensex 76,059.77, down 331 points, same shape, it recovered more than 500 points off its low. And Bank Nifty actually closed green, up almost a fifth of a percent. The banks led the turnaround. The vol gauge, India VIX, ticked up again near 14, so fear rose one more time even as the price bought itself back. Breadth was heavy at the headline, 14 stocks up and 36 down inside the Nifty 50, but the small caps quietly closed green, the microcap index up about half a percent. Sector by sector it was Media and IT green, IT up almost a percent with HCL Tech and …
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