Season 2, Episode 88 | 2026-07-24
Four Days Down, Crude At 100, And The Crowd Is Still Selling Puts . 23,800 Is The Line, 23,900 Is The Fresh Resistance,
Four sessions down, the longest losing streak in about seven weeks, and this morning it got harder. Overnight America's tech sold off, the Nasdaq more than two percent, and Asia, the one part of the world that was bid all week, opened red a
Cold Open | The Melt Up Is Not Even A Memory
Yesterday the melt up in Asia lasted one morning. This morning it is not even a memory. Overnight America's tech sold off, the Nasdaq down more than two percent, and Asia, the strongest thing on the board all week, opened red across the board. Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the whole neighbourhood offered. And through all of it one number keeps climbing. Brent crude is knocking on 100 dollars this morning. 92 on Tuesday, 98 last night, near 100 now. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 88.
Yesterday's Grade | Three And A Half Out Of Five
The question yesterday was 24,000. Fail to reclaim it by 10 o'clock and the sellers are in control, then 23,961 and 23,900. We never got near 24,000. The high was 23,990.75 in the first few minutes and that was it. We closed 23,869.60, straight through both numbers. Four of the five calls landed. The band held, the crude and rupee pair fired again, the no reclaim call was clean. The miss, again, was the Sensex support line. I said respect 76,700 and it cut through to a low of 76,151.98. Two sessions running my Sensex support has broken. Three and a half out of five, full scorecard on the websi…
The Close | Fourth Down Day, Fear Up Four Sessions
Nifty 23,869.60, down 126.65, a third of a percent. Fourth down day in a row, the longest losing streak in about seven weeks. High 23,990.75, low 23,807.20. Sensex 76,391.39, down 363.66. Bank Nifty 56,592, down more than half a percent. The vol gauge, India VIX, up again to 13.48. Price down and fear up, four sessions together, that is the whole story this morning. Breadth was heavy. Twenty stocks up, thirty down inside the Nifty 50. Fifteen of sixteen sectors red. Only Auto held green, up 0.70 percent, and that was earnings. Midcaps and smallcaps both down about a percent.
The Nifty Chain | Resistance Is Right On Top
On the 28 July chain, sellers wrote 51,92,135 fresh call contracts at 23,900, the single biggest new line on the board, about 30 points above where we closed. Fresh sellers parked right on our head. Above that, 24,000 is still the heavy wall at 1,29,48,195 calls, the biggest open interest on the chain. But the calls came off and the puts at 24,000 were dumped, down 59,32,810 in one session. That put support did not hold the line, it abandoned it. So 24,000 is resistance now, not a place buyers defend. The support is 23,800, holding 79,09,395 puts with 25,11,145 added fresh. Put writers stepped…
Positioning | Pros Buy Both Wings, The Crowd Sells Puts Naked
From the official participant file, smart money first. The professionals are long 28,289 index futures, long 1,39,845 calls and long 1,87,652 puts, all at once, and they added to every leg. The futures long roughly doubled. That desk is not picking a direction, it is paying up for a big move either way, and it got bigger into the fall. The foreign institutions are net short 2,63,082 index futures, close to eleven shorts for every long, but still net long 5,47,149 stock futures, so a hedged long, not an outright bear. They stacked more long puts on top. The insurance is growing faster than the …
The World | Risk Off Everywhere, Crude Near 100
The overnight board is risk off everywhere, and that is the change. America's tech led down, the Nasdaq off more than two percent. Europe closed red. Asia, the one bid all week, opened red too. The divergence that protected us is gone. Brent is near 100 dollars this morning, up from 92 on Tuesday. Crude at 100 is a straight tax on an economy that imports almost all of it. Gold slipped to about 4045. The dollar index is 101.37. The rupee sits at 96.57, about 39 paise from its record low, with the central bank visible near 96.50. Crypto is quiet, and that itself is a signal. Bitcoin around 65,60…
The Week Ahead | Tuesday Expiry, Earnings Live
Today, Friday, is not an expiry, so there is no pin holding price. It is a clean session into a weekend, and the weekend is the risk, because crude and the geopolitics do not close when we do. Tuesday the 28th is the next Nifty weekly expiry and the monthly too, the same chain, so 23,800 and 23,900 are the lines that get settled. Thursday the 30th is the next Sensex weekly. Earnings are live. Infosys reported after the close, profit up more than twelve percent but it trimmed its revenue guidance for the year. A soft print from the biggest name so far, already sold into the result.
The Plan | One Level, 23,800
The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold tape can bounce, but the first push higher runs straight into the fresh wall at 23,900, so I fade the first test there until it is taken on a close. Lose 23,800 and stay under, and we are below the options line, moves speed up, and it is 23,700 first, then the shelf near 23,540. For the week the options price a band of roughly 23,540 to 24,190, so trade the edges, not the middle. The straddle is about 255, so the market is pricing a move of about 310 points today. The one thing I will …
Highlights
- Nifty closed 23,869.60 down 126.65 a third of a percent the fourth straight down day
- Longest losing streak in about seven weeks high 23,990.75 low 23,807.20
- Sensex 76,391.39 down 363.66 Bank Nifty 56,592 down more than half a percent
- India VIX rose again to 13.48 price down and fear up four sessions together
- Breadth twenty up thirty down inside the Nifty 50 fifteen of sixteen sectors red
- Only Auto held green up 0.70 percent on earnings midcaps and smallcaps down about a percent
- 23,900 took 51,92,135 fresh call writes the single biggest new line on the board
- 24,000 holds the heaviest call open interest at 1,29,48,195 the biggest on the chain
- Puts at 24,000 dumped down 59,32,810 in one session the support abandoned the line
- Support rebuilt one strike lower at 23,800 holding 79,09,395 puts plus 25,11,145 fresh
- Put call ratio about 0.68 roughly two and a half calls written for every put
- Max pain walked down to 23,900 from 24,100 the magnet moved lower with the market
- Options line sits 23,900 to 24,000 close 23,869.60 just under it so a break of 23,800 slides
- Pros long 28,289 futures long 1,39,845 calls long 1,87,652 puts and added to every leg
- FII net short 2,63,082 index futures still net long 5,47,149 stock futures a hedged long
- Clients short 7,69,347 puts sold 77,000 more into the fourth down day no protection at all
- Brent near 100 dollars up from 92 on Tuesday rupee 96.57 about 39 paise from its record low
- Dollar index 101.37 gold about 4045 Bitcoin near 65,600 Ether near 1923 both flat
- GIFT Nifty near 23,710 set to open below 23,800 straight onto the level that matters
- Weekly band 23,540 to 24,190 straddle about 255 pricing about 310 points for today
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Yesterday I told you the melt up that happened in Asia lasted one morning. This morning it is not even a memory. Overnight America's tech sold off, the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and Asia, the strongest thing on the board all week, opened red across the board. Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the whole neighbourhood is in the red. And through all of it, one number keeps climbing. Brent crude is knocking on that 100 dollars this morning. 92 on Tuesday, 98 last night, nearly 100 right now. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 88, the pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So yesterday I gave you one question and one line. The question was whether we hold 24,000 and reclaim it or not. Fail to reclaim it by 10 o'clock, I said, and the sellers are in control, and it is 23,961 then 23,900. We never got near 24,000. The high was 23,990 in the first few minutes and that was it. We closed at 23,869, straight through both those numbers. Four out of five of the calls landed yesterday, guys. The band held, the crude and the rupee pair fired again, the no-reclaim call was clean. The one thing I missed, again, was the Sensex support line. I said 76,700, and it cut through it to a low of 76,151. That is two sessions running my Sensex support has broken. I am telling you that out loud because the pattern matters more than the miss. Three and a half out of five, that is what I'm scoring for yesterday. So the close, let's look at what happened yesterday. Nifty at 23,869, down 127 points, a third of a percent. Fourth down day in a row, the longest losing streak in about seven weeks. High of 23,990, low of 23,807. Sensex 76,391, down 360 points. Bank Nifty 56,592, down more than half a percent. And the vol gauge, India VIX, up again to 13.48. Price down and fear up, four sessions together, the same thing is playing out. That combination is the whole story this morning, guys. Breadth was heavy: 20 stocks up, 30 stocks down on the Nift…
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