Season 2, Episode 31 | 2026-05-04

The Wing Paid. Asia Came In Hot. Tuesday Pins The Range

Three days off the screen. The 76,750 PE wing under Thursday's short straddle paid 492 points intrinsic at the intraday low and expired worthless at close.

Cold Open | Three Days Off, Tape Came In Hot

You just got earlier. Three days off the screen. Maharashtra Day Friday. Saturday. Sunday. Monday morning live and the tape is hot. GIFT Nifty plus 92 at 24,239. KOSPI plus 3.93 percent. Taiwan plus 4.02 percent. Brent backed off the Hormuz peak. 121 Thursday. 108 live now. This is Episode 31 of Season 2. Today is the wing paid recap and the Tuesday pins the range setup.

Global + Commodities | Risk On, Brent Cooling

Start with the macro tape because that is what gapped while we were off the screen. US Friday. Nasdaq plus 0.89. S&P 500 plus 0.29. Dow Futures flat. Tech led, risk on into the weekend. Asia delivered Monday. KOSPI 6858 plus 3.93. Taiwan Weighted 40,489 plus 4.02. Hang Seng 26,184 plus 1.58. Nikkei flat to up on Japan holiday tail. China onshore closed for May Day. Jakarta plus 1.53. Region opened risk on after the three day Western chop. DAX Thursday plus 1.39 leading. FTSE flat. CAC red. DAX leadership confirms risk on. Now commodities. Brent live 108.24, up 7 cents on the day but down about…

Bonds, Rupee, Crypto | Risk On Across Asset Classes

Gold 4594 down 0.38. Very bearish technical. As crude eases, the macro hedge bid eases too. Dollar Index 98.20 firm. USD INR fix Thursday at 94.91. Intraday print 95.34. The all time low held. Scaffold floor was 95.50. We are below it. Rupee is stable enough. India 10 year 7.06 percent above the 7 mark. Rate stress is real. US 10 year 4.38. Japan 10 year 2.51. No flight to safety bid. Bitcoin reclaimed 77,000. Ethereum at 2300. ETF inflows 1.9 billion in April. Risk on across asset classes.

Pro FII Client | Pro Long Synthetic, FII Covering, Client Trapped

Participant data locked from Thursday April 30 close. Pro first because Pro flips first. Pro index futures plus 1,42,365 long. Structural long. Up from Wednesday plus 94,000. Pro deepened the bull bet despite the Hormuz panic intraday. Pro index calls plus 92,567. Up from Wednesday plus 66,452. 26,000 fresh long calls Thursday. The Pro reset we called on EP29 went deeper, not lighter. Pro index puts plus 2,99,119. Hedge intact. Structure is long futures plus long calls plus long puts. Synthetic straddle on directional long. Betting on movement either way while keeping bullish delta. FII index …

Levels + 5 Prediction Set | 24,000 Magnet, 24,200 Wall

Levels for Monday. Floor 23,800. Thursday low. Magnet 24,000. Thursday close 23,997.55. Four points off the level. Walls 24,200 and 24,300. GIFT plus 92 implies open in the 24,200 zone. We are opening at the ceiling of the pin band, not at the magnet. Tuesday is Nifty weekly expiry. The 5 May chain implied move is plus or minus 460 points. IV at 15.29. Cheapest front weekly of Season 2. Five predictions for Monday settle. Locking now. Grade Monday EOD. One. Nifty settles in the 24,000 to 24,200 zone. Probability 55 percent. Magnet pull is strong. Two. Floor 23,800 holds. No fresh break. Three.…

Education | The Wing That Paid, Then Expired

This is the trade I want you to remember from EP30. Thursday a short straddle was sold at the Sensex 77,300 strike for 596.85 total premium. Call plus put combined. With it a long put wing at the 76,800 strike was bought as protection. Sensex opened 77,254. Sold off to a low of 76,258. Closed 76,913. At the low the 76,800 PE wing printed 492 points of intrinsic value. The hedge paid. At the close the wing was 463 points out of the money. It expired worthless. The straddle writer kept 210 net premium. The naked short straddle writer collects the same 210 on a quiet day. But on this day gets blo…

Today's Plan + Sign Off | Pin Trade Lives Into Tuesday

Bottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy dips down to 24,000. Floor 23,800 is the no break level. Tuesday is the expiry. Pin trade lives. Structure is straddle sell on the magnet 24,000. Wing protection on the put side at 23,900 or 24,000. IV is cheap. Wing rent is small. April closed plus 8 percent. Sell in May is the seasonal frame everyone is reaching for. We test it Tuesday with the chain stacked. If 24,000 holds, the pin holds and May series carries forward. If Brent rips back to 125 you scrap everything. The market always…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

You just got earlier guys. Three days off the screen, Maharashtra Day, Friday holiday, Saturday and then Sunday. Monday morning live and the tape is extremely hot right now. Gift Nifty plus 92 at 24,239. Kospi plus 3.93%. Taiwan plus 4%. Brent backed off the Hormuz peak 121 on Thursday and is currently at 108 right now. This is Tanmay Edge, episode 31 of season 2. I am Tanmay Kurtagoti. Today is wing paid recap and Tuesday pins the range setup. Let's get into it. US Friday closed. Nasdaq plus 0.89%. S &P was plus 0.29%. Dow futures was flat. Tech red led the rally on Friday. Risk on into the weekend. That setup was Asia's pre -market opening. And then Asia today morning delivered. Kospi plus 3.93%. Taiwan is up by 4%. Hang Seng is up by 1.58%. Nikkei flat on the holiday tail. China onshore closed for May Day. Jakarta plus 1.53%. The whole region opened risk on after the three -day western chop. Europe on Thursday was very bullish. CAC was red, FTSE was flat, but DAX was 1.39 % up. Leadership confirms risk on. Now commodities. This is where episode 30 thesis break healed. Brent crude live at 108.24, up 7 cents on the day, but down about $13 from the Thursday's intraday peak of 121. Iran proposed peace talks on Friday. That is the cooling catalyst. WTI trading around 101.79. MCX at 96.52, down 2. percent on friday so the hormuz trail is still active but bleeding off not extending that matters because episode 31 branch trigger was brent above 125 by monday eod we are 17 dollars below it so branch trigger unfired Gold trading at 4594, down 0.38. Very bearish technically. As crude eases, the macro hedge bid eases too. Dollar index below that 9850 mark, trading at 9820. USDINR is trading at 9491. Intraday print on Thursday was 9534. So some cool off over there. The all -time low held. So we are below it. Rupee is stable enough. Bonds, Indian 10 -year bond is trading at 7.06 % yield, above that 7 % mark. Rate stress is real. US 10 -year is trading at 4.38. Japan's 10 -year…

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