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EP40 scored 4/5; the graded episodes before it

EP40 scored 4/5; the graded episodes before itEP40 scored 4/5; the graded episodes before it: EP35 3/5; EP36 5/5; EP37 3/5; EP38 4/5; EP39 4/5; EP40 4/5.3/5EP355/5EP363/5EP374/5EP384/5EP394/5EP40
Score as a share of the calls. Past grades say nothing about future calls. Source: The Tanmay Edge public prediction trail. As of 15 May 2026.

The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP40

Pro flipped calls. Three desks cut the hedge. 23,700 is the pin

Sensex 75,398.72 plus 789 biggest single day move since 8 April

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  • 7:00listen
  • 4/5graded at settlement
  • Fri 15 May 2026aired, Season 2

Now playing

Pro flipped calls. Three desks cut the hedge. 23,700 is the pin

EP40, 15 May, 7:00

0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes7:00

01Scorecard

4/5 at settlement.

4/580%

The call. Daily

  • 4Hit
  • 1Partial
  • 0Mechanical
  • 0Miss

Graded the next trading day, 18 May 2026, against NSE settlement.

  1. Hit(inside 160 pts above floor). P2 magnet 23,700 plus/minus 100 close 23,643.50
  2. Hit(closest pin call in 4 sessions). P3 24,000 CE holds close 23,643.50 cushion 357 pts
  3. Hit. P4 VIX sub-19 ~18.61 12th session
  4. Hit. P5 RC Nifty 10 alpha vs Nifty Day 4 PEND awaiting NAV print. Centerpiece pin trade paid. Three instances of Pro flip into pin pattern banked. INR 96.06 record low fired single stand-down line but chain held: single-line fire equals wider stop not stand-down.

The whole season, gradedMay 2026 archiveMethodology

EP40 scored 4/5, against the 7 graded episodes before it

EP40 scored 4/5, against the 7 graded episodes before itEP40 scored 4/5, against the 7 graded episodes before it: EP33 3/5; EP34 5/5; EP35 3/5; EP36 5/5; EP37 3/5; EP38 4/5; EP39 4/5; EP40 4/5.3/5EP335/5EP343/5EP355/5EP363/5EP374/5EP384/5EP394/5EP40
Each bar is one episode's score as a share of its calls (points scored over points possible), graded against NSE settlement. Past grades say nothing about future calls. Source: The Tanmay Edge public prediction trail. As of 15 May 2026.

02In this episode

8 chapters,
the numbers pulled out.

  1. 01Cold open: the hedge that got cut
  2. 02Hook: the pro flip and the three desk
  3. 03Tension: the go tape vs the wait tape
  4. 04The map: 23,500 floor, 23,700 pin, 24,000
  5. 05Climax: three trades on one chain
  6. 06Resolution: the gates and the streak
  7. 07Education: same put different job
  8. 08Tag: five predictions armed
Chapter 01 of 8about 0:00

Cold open: the hedge that got cut

75,398.72Yesterday Sensex closed

Yesterday Sensex closed 75,398.72. Up 789 points. The biggest single day move since the 8th of April.

Chapter 1 of 8, about 0:17 of the 7:00

Chapter 1 of 8, about 0:17 of the 7:00Chapter 1 of 8, about 0:17 of the 7:00. Part 1 of 8: Cold open.23456780:007:000:00 to 0:17Cold open
Source: The Tanmay Edge EP40 episode notes, estimated chapter marks.

Read the chapter

Chapter 02 of 8about 0:17

Hook: the pro flip and the three desk confession

1.06 percentSensex finished plus
23,689.60Nifty closed
3.30Tape at plus
1.77Bled at minus

Sensex finished plus 1.06 percent. Nifty closed 23,689.60 plus 1.18 percent. BSE Metal led the tape at plus 3.30.…

Read the chapter

Chapter 03 of 8about 1:20

Tension: the go tape vs the wait tape

106.97Brent crude printed
3.44KOSPI closed minus
0.92Hang Seng minus
232.88Nasdaq futures

Tonight the global tape is mixed.

Chapter 3 of 8, about 0:59 of the 7:00

Chapter 3 of 8, about 0:59 of the 7:00Chapter 3 of 8, about 0:59 of the 7:00. Part 3 of 8: Tension.23456780:007:001:20 to 2:19Tension
Source: The Tanmay Edge EP40 episode notes, estimated chapter marks.

Read the chapter

Chapter 04 of 8about 2:19

The map: 23,500 floor, 23,700 pin, 24,000 Wall

1,05,167Put open interest
61,204Call
73,321Plus put
1,34,525Joint cluster

The map for today is clean.

Read the chapter

Chapter 05 of 8about 2:59

Climax: three trades on one chain

23,400Hedge each long
23,900Rally if Nifty tags
24,500Hedge

First. The straddle is for sale. If Pro long calls hold open through the first hour, and GIFT holds plus zero to plus…

Chapter 5 of 8, about 0:58 of the 7:00

Chapter 5 of 8, about 0:58 of the 7:00Chapter 5 of 8, about 0:58 of the 7:00. Part 5 of 8: Climax.23456780:007:002:59 to 3:57Climax
Source: The Tanmay Edge EP40 episode notes, estimated chapter marks.

Read the chapter

Chapter 06 of 8about 3:57

Resolution: the gates and the streak

18.60Yesterday VIX closed
1.76 percentRupeeCase Nifty basket added
3 percentLeg through Thursday's plus
23,400Today

Stand-down rules stay loaded. VIX above 19 on daily close drop the straddle and carry the wing only. Brent above…

Read the chapter

Chapter 07 of 8about 5:01

Education: same put different job

24,200Chain had
24,000Chain had
51 pointsPin held within
75,000Wall migration room

Pro Flip with wall migration room equals break not pin. EP25 to EP26 chain had 24,200 hard pin both sides loaded .…

Chapter 7 of 8, about 1:00 of the 7:00

Chapter 7 of 8, about 1:00 of the 7:00Chapter 7 of 8, about 1:00 of the 7:00. Part 7 of 8: Education.23456780:007:005:01 to 6:01Education
Source: The Tanmay Edge EP40 episode notes, estimated chapter marks.

Read the chapter

Chapter 08 of 8about 6:01

Tag: five predictions armed

1,47,656Pro flipped
23,500Map for today
23,483Close inside the wing
24,000No daily close above

To recap. Three desks cut the hedge yesterday. Pro flipped 1,47,656 call contracts from short to long. GIFT voted plus…

Read the chapter

03The notes

Chapter by chapter.

The Tanmay Edge EP40 card: Pro flipped calls. Three desks cut the hedge. 23,700 is the pin, graded 4/5
EP40, Fri 15 May 2026, graded 4/5 at settlement

Where the 7:00 goes, chapter by chapter: the longest runs 1:03

Where the 7:00 goes, chapter by chapter: the longest runs 1:03Where the 7:00 goes, chapter by chapter: the longest runs 1:03: 1. Cold open 0:17; 2. Hook 1:03; 3. Tension 0:59; 4. The map 0:40; 5. Climax 0:58; 6. Resolution 1:04; 7. Education 1:00; 8. Tag 0:59.1. Cold open0:172. Hook1:033. Tension0:594. The map0:405. Climax0:586. Resolution1:047. Education1:008. Tag0:59
Minutes per chapter, estimated from each chapter's share of the episode notes (the same marks as the player). Source: The Tanmay Edge EP40 episode notes. As of 15 May 2026.

01Cold open: the hedge that got cut

Yesterday Sensex closed 75,398.72. Up 789 points. The biggest single day move since the 8th of April.

Read the rest of chapter 1

But the move wasn't the story. The hedge was. Three desks cut the hedge on the same session.

This is The Tanmay Edge. Episode 40, Season 2.

02Hook: the pro flip and the three desk confession

Sensex finished plus 1.06 percent. Nifty closed 23,689.60 plus 1.18 percent. BSE Metal led the tape at plus 3.30. BSE Focused IT bled at minus 1.77. Pharma and Healthcare carried the rest.

Read the rest of chapter 2

The headline was the rally. The headline below the headline was the hedge unwind. On the call side Pro flipped 1,47,656 contracts in one session. From 71,438 short calls Wednesday evening to 76,218 long calls Thursday evening. Same desk. One day. Largest call-side Pro flip of this season.

This is the third Pro flip of Season Two. The first two ran three sessions higher each time. The reference trades are alive.

On the put side three desks moved the same way. Pro trimmed 14,998 long puts. FII trimmed 64,419 long puts. Client covered 77,707 short puts. Three desks cut downside protection on the same session. When everyone removes the hedge at once the chain isn't predicting. The chain is confessing.

03Tension: the go tape vs the wait tape

Tonight the global tape is mixed.

Read the rest of chapter 3

Brent crude printed 106.97. Up 1.18 percent overnight. Hormuz is in Day Four of the escalation watch. The tail hasn't gone away. It just hasn't fired. KOSPI closed minus 3.44. Korean tech sold hard. Nikkei minus one. Hang Seng minus 0.92. That's the wait-tape.

US futures cut the other way. Dow futures down 105. S and P futures up 56.99. Nasdaq futures up 232.88. Nasdaq strength overnight pulls Indian IT off the floor today. That matters because IT bled minus 2 percent on Sensex side yesterday. The rotation needs IT to bottom.

GIFT Nifty up 49 points at 23,779. Plus 0.21. Dollar to rupee holding 95.76. India 10Y at 7.04. Dollar Index 99.04.

A chain that says go. A global tape that says wait. Both have to coexist. The macro is slow. The chain is short dated. The chain confessed yesterday.

04The map: 23,500 floor, 23,700 pin, 24,000 Wall

The map for today is clean.

Read the rest of chapter 4

23,500 is the floor. Put open interest 1,05,167 contracts. The biggest put base inside the action range.

23,700 is the pin. Call 61,204 plus put 73,321 stacked at the same strike. Joint cluster 1,34,525 contracts.

24,000 is the wall. Call open interest 1,06,518 contracts. Single biggest call inside the range.

24,500 is the outer wall. 1,24,465 contracts. The back-up ceiling if 24,000 breaks.

ATM straddle at 23,700 prints 347.90. One sigma wing is 217 points either side. Friday range 23,483 to 23,917. The pin lives in the middle of that band.

05Climax: three trades on one chain

First. The straddle is for sale. If Pro long calls hold open through the first hour, and GIFT holds plus zero to plus 50, and Brent stays under 108, sell the 23,700 straddle. Theta pays into close. One sigma wing 217 each side covers Friday's range.

Read the rest of chapter 5

Second. The floor is the buy. 23,500 to 23,600 is the dip-buy zone. Hedge each long with a 23,400 put. Premium is small. Protection is real. The floor only breaks under three conditions. Brent prints above 108 intraday. Dollar to rupee prints above 96. VIX closes above 19. None have fired.

Third. The wall is the short. 24,000 is hard ceiling. Nothing should chase above. Sell into the rally if Nifty tags 23,900 plus. Hedge with a 24,500 call long.

The wing as hedge stays on the books either way. Long basket holds the 23,400 put. Short basket holds the 24,500 call.

EP40 in 9 topics

EP40 in 9 topicsEP40 in 9 topics: Sectors, Cold open, Hook, Tension, The map, Climax, Resolution, Education, Tag.SectorsCold openHookTensionThe mapClimaxResolutionEducationTag
The episode tags and the chapter topics, without the figures. Source: The Tanmay Edge EP40 episode notes.

06Resolution: the gates and the streak

Stand-down rules stay loaded. VIX above 19 on daily close drop the straddle and carry the wing only. Brent above 108 intraday fade rallies and stop fresh longs. Dollar to rupee above 96 trim equity exposure on the day.

Read the rest of chapter 6

Yesterday VIX closed 18.60. The sub-19 streak is 11 sessions deep. The gate held all week.

The RupeeCase Nifty 10 basket added 1.76 percent in three sessions since the 11 May rebalance. Tata Steel led. Hindalco followed. Adani Ports and JSW Steel carried the metal leg through Thursday's plus 3 percent sectoral move. Day Four post rebalance opens today. Next rebalance window is the 8th of June.

Third week in a row the wing as hedge has paid something. EP36 the 23,800 put protected the floor. EP38 the 75,000 call capped the ceiling on Sensex expiry. Today the 23,400 put protects the buy zone. Same instrument. Different jobs each session. That is how the hedge earns its keep.

07Education: same put different job

Pro Flip with wall migration room equals break not pin. EP25 to EP26 chain had 24,200 hard pin both sides loaded . pin held within three points. EP31 to EP32 chain had 24,000 hard pin . pin held within 51 points. EP38 to EP39 chain had wall migration room 75,000 weak versus 76,000 strong mega-wall with 74,000 strong floor . when Pro flipped the floor held and migration room let the wall break and extend.

Read the rest of chapter 7

New mechanic subtype banked. When the wall has room to migrate Pro flip resolves as a break and a close above. When both sides of the strike are loaded Pro flip resolves as a pin.

Today's chain at 23,700 is the symmetric load case. Joint cluster 1,34,525 contracts puts and calls stacked. That is pin geometry not break geometry. Treat the straddle sale as the higher probability trade and treat the wall short and floor buy as the hedged tails.

08Tag: five predictions armed

To recap. Three desks cut the hedge yesterday. Pro flipped 1,47,656 call contracts from short to long. GIFT voted plus 49 overnight. Brent at 107 is the tail to watch. The map for today is 23,500 floor 23,700 pin 24,000 wall.

Read the rest of chapter 8

Buy on dips. Hedge the ceiling. Hold the wing. Stand down if Brent breaks 108 or VIX cracks 19.

Five predictions on record. Nifty Fri close inside the 1SD wing 23,483 to 23,917. ATM 23,700 stays magnet within plus minus 100. 24,000 CE wall holds no daily close above 24,000. India VIX stays sub-19 on daily close . 12th sub-19 session candidate. RupeeCase Nifty 10 alpha holds positive vs Nifty Day 4.

Track every prediction across the 39 episodes graded this season at rupeecase dot com slash podcast. RupeeCase Nifty portfolio live at invest dot rupeecase dot com. I will see you Monday. This is The Tanmay Edge.

04Key takeaways

20 things to carry into the session.

  • 01Sensex 75,398.72 plus 789 biggest single day move since 8 April
  • 02Nifty 23,689.60 plus 1.18 percent BSE Metal plus 3.30 BSE IT minus 1.77
  • 03Pro flipped 1,47,656 call contracts in one session from minus 71,438 to plus 76,218
  • 04Third Pro flip of S2 first two ran three sessions higher each time
  • 05Pro trimmed 14,998 long puts FII trimmed 64,419 Client covered 77,707 short puts
  • 06Three desks cut downside protection on the same session
All 20 takeaways
  • 07Brent 106.97 plus 1.18 percent overnight Hormuz Day 4 escalation watch
  • 08KOSPI minus 3.44 Nikkei minus 1.00 Hang Seng minus 0.92 wait tape
  • 09Dow futures minus 105 S and P plus 56.99 Nasdaq plus 232.88
  • 10GIFT Nifty 23,779 plus 49 USD INR 95.76 India 10Y 7.04 DXY 99.04
  • 1123,500 floor PE 1,05,167 . 23,700 pin joint OI 1,34,525 . 24,000 wall CE 1,06,518
  • 12ATM straddle 23,700 at 347.90 one sigma wing 217 range 23,483 to 23,917
  • 13Sell 23,700 straddle if Pro long calls hold first hour and Brent under 108
  • 14Buy zone 23,500 to 23,600 with 23,400 PE hedge premium small protection real
  • 15Sell rallies above 23,900 toward 24,000 wall with 24,500 CE hedge
  • 16Stand down if VIX closes above 19 or Brent above 108 or USD INR above 96
  • 17VIX 18.60 sub-19 streak 11 sessions deep gate held all week
  • 18RupeeCase Nifty 10 plus 1.76 percent Day 4 post 11 May rebalance
  • 19Next RC Nifty rebalance window 8 June Tata Steel and Hindalco leading metal leg
  • 20Five preds armed for Fri EOD grade . wing pin wall vix RC alpha

EP40: 4 of 5 calls hit at settlement

EP40: 4 of 5 calls hit at settlementEP40: 4 of 5 calls hit at settlement. 4 of 5.123454 hit1 not a full hit
Each dot is one call, graded the next trading day against NSE settlement. Past grades say nothing about future calls. Source: The Tanmay Edge public prediction trail.

05In his words

The headline was the rally. The headline below the headline was the hedge unwind.

Sets up the Pro flip and three-desk confession after the biggest Sensex day since 8 April.

When everyone removes the hedge at the same time, the chain isn't predicting. The chain is confessing.

Reframes the put-side unwind as a participant signal rather than a price prediction.

A chain that says go. A global tape that says wait. Both have to coexist.

Frames the Fri tension between Pro flip and Brent climbing past 106.

06Transcript

The full episode, in text.

The 7:00 in 8 chapters, end to end

The 7:00 in 8 chapters, end to endThe 7:00 in 8 chapters, end to end. 1. Cold open, 0:17; 2. Hook, 1:03; 3. Tension, 0:59; 4. The map, 0:40; 5. Climax, 0:58; 6. Resolution, 1:04; 7. Education, 1:00; 8. Tag, 0:59.23456780:007:001. Cold open0:00 to 0:172. Hook0:17 to 1:203. Tension1:20 to 2:194. The map2:19 to 2:59
Chapter lengths estimated from the notes, the same marks as the player. Source: The Tanmay Edge EP40 episode notes.

A very good morning guys. Yesterday Sensex closed at 75,400 up almost 800 points. The biggest single day move that we have seen since a month. That is 8th of April. But the move wasn't the story, the hedge was. Three desks cut the hedge on the same session. So this is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 40, season 2. Let's go. 06%. Nifty closed at 23,689. 18%. 3%. 77%. Pharma and Healthcare carried the rest. The headline was the rally. The headline below the headline was the hedge unwind.

On the call side, pros flipped 1,47,000 contracts in one session. From 71,000 short calls Wednesday evening to 76,000 long calls Thursday evening. Same desk one day, largest call side flip pros have done this season. This is the third pro flip of season 2. The first two ran 3 sessions higher each time. The reference trades are still alive. On the put side, 3 desks moved the same way on the same day. Pro trimmed 14,000 long puts. FIIs trimmed 64,000 long puts. Client covered around 77,000 short puts.

Read the full transcript, 960 words, about 4 min

Three desks cut the downside protection on the same session. Every move removes the hedge at the same time. The chain isn't predicting. The chain is confessing. That confession sets up for today. So, tonight the global tape is mixed. 18 overnight. Hormuz is in day 4 of the escalation watch. The tail hasn't gone away. It has just fired up. 44 % yesterday. Korea Tech sold hard. Nikkei minus 1%. 92%. That's the weight dip. US futures cut the other way. Dow futures down 105.

S&P futures up 56. Nasdaq futures up 232. Nasdaq's strength overnight pulls Indian's IT off the floor today. That matters because IT bled minus 2% on Sensex side yesterday. The rotation needs IT to bottom out. 21%. 76. 04. 04. So we have the chain that says go. The pro have flipped. The desk lifted the hedge. Theta is for sale. And we have the global tape that says wait. Brent is climbing. Cospi has cracked. Both tapes have to coexist. Today's trades lives life on the chain itself.

The macro is slow. The chain is short dated. The chain confessed yesterday itself. So let's look at the map for today. 23,500 is the floor or the support. Put open interest over there is 1 lakh contracts. That is the biggest put base inside that action range. 23,700 is the pin. Calls at 61,000 plus put at 73,000 stacked at the same strike 24,000 is the wall or the resistance call open interest stands at one lakh contracts single most strike where the calls have been written 24,500 is the outer wall the backup ceiling stands at 24,000 so that is what we are looking for the ATM straddle at 23,700 prints 348 rupees one standard deviation is 217 points either side so that gives us a range of 23,500 on the bottom end to 23,900 on the upside remember that the pin lives in the middle of that bag plan so three trades we are planning first the straddle is for sale if pro Long calls hold open through the first hour and GIFT Nifty holds plus 0 to plus 50 points and Brent stays under 108.

Sell the 23,700 straddle. Theta pays into the close. One standard deviation is still trading around 230 points. Each side covers Friday's range. The floor is at the buy. So that is where we enter again into a buy zone. That is 23,500 to 23,600 is the dip buy that you have to do. Hedge it along with 23,400 put. Premium is small. Protection is the real. The floor only breaks under three conditions. Brent prints above 108. Dollar to rupee prints above 96. VIX closes above 19.

None of those have happened in the pre-open. Third, the wall is the short. That is, you sell those rallies. So, 24,000 is the hard ceiling. Nothing should chase above that. Sell into the rally if Nifty tags 23,900+. Hedge it with a 24,500 call. Because we are not doing any kind of directional trades without any kind of hedge. The wing as the hedge stays on the book either way. Long basket holds the 23,400 put. Short basket holds the 24,500 call. Remember that.

Fine teal and blue streamlines flowing across a navy field

Stand down rules. 6. The sub-19 stick is still open. The gate held all the week. 76 % in three sessions since the 11th May rebalance. Tata Steel led, Hindalco followed. Adani Ports and JSW Steel carried the metal leg through Thursday. Plus three percent sectorial move so day four post rebalance opens today the rebalance window is on 8th of June this is the third week in a row that the wing as hedge has paid up something episode 36 23,800 put protected the floor episode 38 75,000 call cap the ceiling on Sensex expiry today the 23,400 put protects the buy zone same instrument different jobs they are doing each session That is how the hedge earns its keep.

So just to recap, 3 desks cut the hedge yesterday. Pros have flipped from short to long. GIFT Nifty is just flagged to positive. Brent is trading at 107. The map for today, 23,500 is the support. 23,700 is the magnet where the market should oscillate or try to mean revert. 24,000 is the resistance where sell on rallies continues. Buy on dips, hedge the ceiling, hold the wing, stand down if the Brent breaks 108. Or VIX cracks at 19. com right now slash podcast.

com. So the podcast is streaming live on RupeeCase. I'll see you guys on Monday. So have a very happy trading day, guys. This was The Tanmay Edge. See you all once again.

Questions

EP40, in plain words.

What does EP40 of The Tanmay Edge cover?

EP40, Friday 15 May 2026, 7:00, in 8 chapters: Cold open: the hedge that got cut; Hook: the pro flip and the three desk confession; Tension: the go tape vs the wait tape; The map: 23,500 floor, 23,700 pin, 24,000 Wall; Climax: three trades on one chain; Resolution: the gates and the streak; Education: same put different job; Tag: five predictions armed.

How did the calls in EP40 score?

Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 18 May 2026, against NSE settlement.

Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?

No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested.

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Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser. Strategy figures are model, back tested.