Season 2, Episode 36 | 2026-05-11

EP36 | The Tanmay Edge

The Iran tail came back. Brent jumped 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle to 104.65 Monday open. GIFT Nifty 24060.50 down 179 puts spot near the 24000 floor on the first tick.

Cold Open | The Wing Is About To Pay

I called the range Friday. Two for five. The wide wing held by 252 points. The tight pin breached by 24. Banks broke the long carry first. I should have been celebrating the wing. I was not. Because the Iran tail came back at noon Friday. By Sunday night Brent had cracked 104. By Monday open GIFT is down 179. The wing the chain priced Friday is about to pay this morning. This is The Tanmay Edge. EP36. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go.

Three Numbers Run This Open

Brent 104.65 on the 07:38 IST international print. Up 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle. WTI 99.07 up 3.82. The Strait of Hormuz priced a fresh weekend escalation. The fragile ceasefire that held Saturday cracked overnight in the tape if not on the wires. GIFT Nifty 24060.50. Down 179. Gap-down 0.74 against Friday cash close 24176.15. We open near the 24000 floor on the first tick. US closed records Friday. S&P 7398.93 ATH. Nasdaq 26247.08 ATH. Monday morning Dow futures print 49456 down 152. The US already started giving back.

Asia Split + Yields + The Only Good News

Asia split. KOSPI up 4.55 catching up. Nikkei down 0.29. Hang Seng down 0.47. Taiwan up 0.50. Jakarta down 2.94 because oil importers got punished. Shanghai up 0.60. The split tells you the world is not all bearish. The oil importers are. India is the oil importer. Yields up. India 10Y 6.96. US 10Y 4.39. Both bid this morning. Dollar Index 98.05. USD/INR 94.47 Friday close. The rupee held below 95 even with Brent at 104. That is the only good news on the macro card.

Chain Read | Two Walls, Three Floors, One Magnet

24200 was the magnet Friday. 6111545 contracts in one session at one strike. Largest single-strike write of season two. Writers picked a magnet not a direction. They also said this is where the fight is. 24500 wall. 9881690 contracts. 25500 ceiling. 11623430 with 4303000 added in one session. Two walls. One thousand points apart. Monday trades the lane between. 24000 floor. 7244250 puts. 23500 deep floor. 8192600. 23000 ultra-deep floor. 7320950 with 686335 added Friday. The chain built three floors. Then it built the deepest one biggest. Writers priced 23000 harder than 23500 in one session.

Wing Math | The Range The Chain Priced

ATM 24200 straddle Friday close 291.30. Times 1.25. 364 each side. The four-day Mon-Tue range the chain priced. 23812 to 24540. GIFT 24060 opens 248 above the wing floor. 480 below the wing ceiling. The wing started to pay before cash opened.

POV | Buy The Floor, Hedge On Top, Long Gamma

Buy on dips. With a hedge. The hedge costs more today. Pay it anyway. The buy zone is the floor. 23950 to 24050. We are there at the first tick if GIFT holds. The 12-May 23800 PE was sold Friday at 25.20. By the time you read this it is twice that. Buy it anyway. The wing is the floor today. The floor is the hedge today. IV opens up. India VIX 16.84 close Friday. Intraday high tagged 17.43. Monday the print goes higher first. Long gamma day rule. When vol is going up and spot is moving fast, you buy options. You do not sell them. Stand down on premium selling until VIX cracks back below 17. No…

Three Branches + Triggers First Hour

Base case 50 percent. Spot opens 24050 to 24100. Tests 23950. Bounces. Fades to 24200 broken pin floor as resistance. Wing rents the morning. Premium selling later only if VIX cracks back below 17. Escalation 35 percent. Spot prints 23812. The 23000 ultra-deep floor that the chain built bigger than 23500 in one session becomes the live test. EP30 playbook back in. Wing-rent week. Hedge first cash second. De-escalation 15 percent. Brent retraces to 100 zone by noon. US 10Y falls below 4.30. Spot retakes 24200. Range frame revives. Buy dips at 24050 holds. Banks re-bid resumes. Branch triggers a…

Education + Calibration | Same Put, Two Jobs

Bands always hold. Points never do. Three sessions in a row direction was right and levels were tight under one ATR. EP33 wall flexed by 30. EP34 magnet held by 44. EP35 floor breached by 24. Three sessions of the chain talking in bands and me predicting points. This week I trade the band. The chain calls the lean. The hedge does the work. When the wing pays, the hedge graduates to the buy. The 23800 PE I called as wing protection Friday is the same option that opens as the buy this morning. The chain does not re-price it as a different contract. The trader has to re-read it as a different rol…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

a very good morning guys i called a range on friday the wide wing held by 250 points the tight pin breached by 24 points and banks broke the long carry first i should have been celebrating the wing i was not because the iran tail came back at noon on friday by sunday night Brent cracked at $104 by Monday open. Gift is down by 179 points. The wing, the chain priced Friday, is about to pay this morning. This is the Tanmay Edge, India's pre -market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtaguti. Season 2, episode 36. Let's go. Three numbers run this morning. Brent at 104 .65 on international print up. 3 .31 % over the weekend from 101 that settled on Friday. WTI is trading around 99 .07. The state of Hormuz priced a fresh weekend escalation. The fragile ceasefire that held Saturday cracked overnight in the tape, if not on the wires. Gift Nifty is trading around 24 ,060, down 179 points. Gap down of 0 .74 % against Friday's cash close of 24 ,176. We opened near the 24 ,000 floor on the first tick. US closed records on Friday high. So S &P closed at an all -time high of 7398. NASDAQ was trading at 26247 at an all -time high on Friday. Both built on April jobs. By Monday morning, Dow futures is down by 150 points. The US has already started giving back the gains. Two desks read the same Iran tale differently. Friday, the gap was 175 basis points in one session. The morning, the gap is closing. Asia is also split now. Kospi is up 4 .55, catching up. Nikkei is down 0 .29%. Hang Seng down... 0 .47%. Taiwan up 0 .5%. Jakarta down 2 .94 % because oil importers got punished. Shanghai is up by 0 .6%. The split tells you the world is not at all bearish. The oil importers are 100 % are and India is the oil importer. Yields are up in India and India's 10 -year bond yield is trading at 6 .96. US 10 -year is trading at 4 .39. bid this morning dollar index is above that 98 dollar mark and usd inr just trading below that 94 .50 at 94 .47. The rupee held below 95 even when the Brent was at 104. That is th…

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